expectations for SLI, Pinnacle, Mesaba, Colgan

[Yodafly]

What are your expectations for a combined list and where do you fit relatively in your company. Top 25%, 25%-50%, 50%-75%, 75%-Furlough or New Hire.

 

[RJLoser]

What are your expectations for a combined list and where do you fit relatively in your company. Top 25%, 25%-50%, 50%-75%, 75%-Furlough or New Hire.

It's gonna be bad for everyone.

 

[the palm]

Windfall for Peaknuckle. Mesaba and Colgan....not so much

 

[higney85]

I was told by the DL guy that was on the merger committee one line that is weirdly true.... "If everyone is upset, it was done right". Anything at this point is pure speculation. Until we get a TA on a JCBA the merger committees aren't even convening. I don't see a windfall or staplejob in any of the 3 groups' future.

 

[Kaman]

If I don't get in the left-seat (again!) before SLI...Might be awhile...And, I have been trying to make it clear to anyone that will listen...THIS IS NOT a merger for GROWTH...This is a CONSOLIDATION!!!! 3000 pilots today...5-7 years from now...1500!!! I HOPE I AM WRONG....However, I don't think that I am and this trend of consolidation is going to continue and it is inevitable.

 

[higney85]

If I don't get in the left-seat (again!) before SLI...Might be awhile...And, I have been trying to make it clear to anyone that will listen...THIS IS NOT a merger for GROWTH...This is a CONSOLIDATION!!!! 3000 pilots today...5-7 years from now...1500!!! I HOPE I AM WRONG....However, I don't think that I am and this trend of consolidation is going to continue and it is inevitable.

1500? Have you spent any time looking at the CPA agreements? Pinnacle is already run as thin as possible with old work rules, they can't run leaner than now. 9E alone is almost 1200 pilots. Add Colgan and their CPA, and Mesaba's agreement (through PNCL for the acquisition) and 1500 pilots isn't possible unless performance is so bad that contracts get cancelled or mainline (DL and CO/UAL) go under. Not saying it's not possible, being in aviation never say never, but it is highly unlikely for the total group to get halved.

 

[Kaman]

Honestly, I haven't had a chance to read that document. My statement is based upon what I believe is the strategic business plan of PNCL Corp. based on the statements and memorandums I've read in the past few months.
Continuing consolidation is inevitable in the airline industry, and while Doug Parker at US isn't everyone's favorite guy. He was correct 5 years ago when he predicted a trend toward consolidation, less capacity and less frequency. Fuel costs are not going to come down and will again begin to climb into the near $100/barrel of crude again in the near future. Bottom-line is that to make money you have to reduce costs, and maximize yields per seat my flown. Airline 101 some would say. I am not an expert or business school graduate, but I have been around long enough to see the handwriting on the wall.
PNCL Corp. could very well be an airline of 75 Q-400s and 75 CRJ-900s by the end of this decade if not much sooner. The B+s are going and Colgan is abandoning traditional routes because they just don't generate the revenue margins to justify their continued operation.
NOBODY wants to see airplanes leave the property, but if this company is going be positioned to survive and thrive in the new world order that we are waking up to. Then I wouldn't be shocked to see my prediction come to light. The good news is that in 2012, the age 65 rule kicks in and we will be seeing some real hiring going on at the majors.
Interesting times in which we live...

Regards,

ex-Navy Rotorhead

 

[callowayhd]

I would agree that the majority of the new pinnacles crj200 fleet and saab fleet will be gone in a few years. 76 seat regional aircraft is the new thing and noone likes the 50 seats.

Do not feel too comfortable with the crj200 contract with delta, you now have a JFK base and will NOT meet the performance numbers required per the contract.

Good luck but the reality is majors want to recapture flying that is theirs, the crj200 is no longer profitable with high oil prices. Consolidation usually means shrinkage

 

[SEVEN]

Windfall for Peaknuckle. Mesaba and Colgan....not so much

Keep dream'n.

 

[higney85]

If the combined PNCL fleet ends up to be just Q-400's and -900's and mainline "takes the flying back" I don't see this as a bad thing. Why? The pilots who choose NOT to go to a major (for whatever valid reasons) will still be flying. The recaptured flying will be done at mainline; requiring more staffing at the majors, higher career earnings, and plenty of movement from the regionals to the majors. Can it happen overnight? No. Can it happen over time in a fashion that would not be a disruption to career progression? Yes. The big players in this arena will be the new scope language of the UAL/CO JCBA, the next contract cycle for DL, next cycle for AA, and Usair/AW (if they ever get their train on the right tracks). We all get to watch this unfold going forward.

Thinking only negative will not allow any positives to occur.

 

[Kaman]

If the combined PNCL fleet ends up to be just Q-400's and -900's and mainline "takes the flying back" I don't see this as a bad thing. Why? The pilots who choose NOT to go to a major (for whatever valid reasons) will still be flying. The recaptured flying will be done at mainline; requiring more staffing at the majors, higher career earnings, and plenty of movement from the regionals to the majors. Can it happen overnight? No. Can it happen over time in a fashion that would not be a disruption to career progression? Yes. The big players in this arena will be the new scope language of the UAL/CO JCBA, the next contract cycle for DL, next cycle for AA, and Usair/AW (if they ever get their train on the right tracks). We all get to watch this unfold going forward.

Thinking only negative will not allow any positives to occur.

Well said, and I agree with you. Unfortunately, there is always some kind of human "fallout" during one of these rounds of mergers, consolidations, optimizations, rationalizations...whatever management tries to spin it as doesn't matter. I think that what is going on is necessary, and I have never understood why the airlines are always so slow to react to the market forces in the industry. Granted, caution must be used in making changes too quickly, but fuel costs aren't going to go anywhere, except up. Personnel costs are still secondary to fuel...Makes complete sense to have less airframes flying with more seats burning less fuel. Not good for the wallets of the flying public and reduces opportunities for pilots to advance and enter flying as a profession.

 

[flyn96]

Windfall for Peaknuckle. Mesaba and Colgan....not so much

Last I checked Mesaba and Colgan combined have more votes than Pinnacle so you will NOT see a "Windfall" and not to mention Mesaba guys are pulling the reigns in negotiations. Good luck with that.

 

[DoinTime]

Last I checked Mesaba and Colgan combined have more votes than Pinnacle so you will NOT see a "Windfall"

Nobody gets to vote on seniority integration.

Not to mention Mesaba guys are pulling the reigns in negotiations. Good luck with that.

If the end result of joint negotiations looks like Mesaba's contract the deal is already failed. Mesaba contract will not pass at PCL. To many concessions.

 

[higney85]

Last I checked Mesaba and Colgan combined have more votes than Pinnacle so you will NOT see a "Windfall" and not to mention Mesaba guys are pulling the reigns in negotiations. Good luck with that.

Nope. You obviously are not absorbing the facts as they are presented. In terms of the sli, that's not an issue anyone votes on so it doesn't allow for any group to control the outcome to their advantage. If the 3 respective merger committees cannot come up with a method an arbitrator gets the reigns in the sli arena. In terms of negotiations for a JCBA there is a Joint negotiating committee comprised of all groups. Once a TA is reached all 3 MEC's must separately pass the TA for the pilot group to be given a choice by vote. A single (any) MEC can vote the TA down and halt the process for all, but in either a JCBA or Sli it is impossible for any of the groups to individually or even 2 on 1 the overall group. It's all or nothing for all involved. If you understand or heard it otherwise you need to check your source. Nobody holds the "reigns" in any way, shape, or form beyond the JMEC as a whole.

 

[higney85]

If the end result of joint negotiations looks like Mesaba's contract the deal is already failed. Mesaba contract will not pass at PCL. To many concessions.

I would (personally) agree with that statement and sentiment.