I'll tell you what is funny. It's that we feel the same exact way about each other in that we both think each other to be warped. I don't know the figures off hand, but with some research I'm sure this info can be found, but there were about half as many regional pilots in the 90's as there are today. The percentage of total airline pilots back in the 90's that flew for the majors was probably up to 80% of the airline pilot workforce. Now the ability of the major airlines to hire all the regional guys is history. There are just too many of them. There are currently over 4,000 furloughed pilots and this number is just for AA, UAL, US, AL, and CAL. I'd love to know how many pilots total, were hired by all of the legacy carriers, plus SWA, FedEx, and UPS since September of 2001. I bet not many more than 4,000. So in 10 years there has been little movement as a whole at the good career airlines yet the regionals have been booming. Welcome to the new airline B scale pay structure, but only you are stuck at that B scale for the rest of your career. Well at least for 80% of us.
And your argument about retirements beginning again in a few years as this professions panacea doesn't hold any water either. I heard the same line of total BS back when I was getting into this profession back in the late 90's. All the so-called experts like Kit Darby and his ilk said all we had to do was make it to a regional airline and our work was done! We would just have to spend maybe 5 years or so there and because of all the retirements of the Vietnam era guys the next 10 years, the major airlines would be scrambling to get us on property. Well what happened? All those guys are gone. Maybe a few were just shy of 60 when the age 65 rule was passed, but very few remain. All that arab dirtbag had to do was successfully blow up that NWA plane and management would be milking the effect of that for the next 5 years as they did with 9-11. We would have yet another wave of bankruptcies, paycuts, and further deterioration of our already pathetic contracts and workrules. If you don't think so, you are very naive. The precedent was set after 9-11.
Also, do you really think this industry will be able to expand as the economy improves? Do you remember what fuel prices were before the Bush economy collapsed? It was fuel prices that prompted the airlines to plan 10-15% cut backs in capacity before the economy tanked in mid to late 08 that in a lucky quirk of fate, helped the airlines weather the bad economy. It only stands to reason that as this economy improves, oil will continue to rise to 150 a barrel and beyond, limiting the industries ability just to add back the capacity it had in early 08. Not too mention our lackluster ATC system that still can't handle the industries current reduced capacity on VFR day, let alone when the weather is down to mins.
So it is you sir, who are warped on reality. The assertions you make are not supported by current conditions, or even any historical precedent that may have been set.