A "Crisis" in Flight Training???

[atpcliff]

Hi!

from Flying:
A Crisis in Flight Training
The flight training industry is facing a two-edged crisis. There's a coming shortage of airline pilots, and the prospective students to fill those slots simply can't get loan money — as much as $200,000 — to pay for their training. There are possible solutions, but not ones that anybody really likes. Robert Goyer says it's time to get real and start looking seriously at these hard choices. To find out more, click here for this week's Web Exclusive.

http://blogs.flyingmag.com/left_seat/2009/10/a-crisis-in-flight-training/comments/page/2/#comments

cliff
NBO

 

[avbug]

Here we go again...the mythical "pilot shortage" which does not now exist, and never did.

 

[kf4amu]

Good I hope it gets more expensive.

 

[tdwnds1]

I agree that right now us pilots are a dime a dozen, but...

I go with the "dry up from below and above theory". Soon (in the next couple of years) most of the older pilots are going to retire. If the market and their 401ks recover, that might happen sooner.

At the same time,domestic flight instruction is down AT LEAST 30 percent. Most instruction I am seeing is overwhelmingly for international students, not domestic.Sallie Mae cut everyone off, even the GI bill dosent finance flight training. In addition, much of the new generation dosent have quite the patience to wait 15 years of maybe longer to make some real money. Not when they can go into engineering or heathcare. So where is the new batch of people going to come from?

 

[BushwickBill]

Well this guy is an inspiration to everyone to become a pilot...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwZWyBQeMro

 

[William Holiday]

I've been hearing about the "shortage" for 30 years.....mins go skinny from time to time, but still hard to get a good job. Pay rates for a guy starting out with a B.S. degree=B.S. wages.

The real problem is pilots....we need protection from ourselves, were willing to take it because we love what we do. Fix that and the problem is solved.

 

[epic!]

$200,000 for training!?! are people seriously dumb enough to spend that much?

 

[ualdriver]

The whole concept of a pilot shortage is laughable, especially for the next few to several years. IMO we have 1000's of pilots who are currently underemployed. We have 1000's of pilots who are unemployed. We have 1000's of pilots currently back in the military who would gladly come back to the airlines if airline CEO's would simply stop beating their pilots about the head and shoulders. And we probably have 1000's of pilots with a wallet full of ratings who are working in various other non-aviation professions who would gladly make the jump to the cockpit if only a reasonable, professional wage were to be paid. Further, I fly with "old" guys all the time and I'll tell you what- these guys ARE NOT going to retire before age 65, whether the market recovers or not, for various reasons, most of which involving the fact that they wouldn't have had enough money to retire at age 60 even if the market hadn't crashed.

As posted above and as many will post below, we've been hearing of a "pilot shortage" for decades. The only times we have had close to a "shortage" is when regional airlines couldn't hire 20K/year pilots during good economic times. We all know that isn't a shortage- that's just a lack of pilots wanting to work for poverty wages. Had that wage been bumped up to 40k or 50k a year (certainly a reasonable entry level wage for an airline pilot and affordable by the airlines and the flying public), they would have had a HR department flooded with applicants.

Regardless, most problems, including a real "pilot shortage" problem can easily and quickly be fixed by economics. Pay a wage that allows an employee to service the debt required to obtain this profession -or ANY profession for that matter- and the banks will loan money and guys will choose to become pilots, or accountants, or IT guys, or whatever. Pay guys 20K/year, take their pensions, destroy their quality of life, cut the pay at the top end of the profession that serves as the "carrot" to entice young professionals to endure the hardships early in their profession and you reap what you sew.

 

[AC560]

Most instruction I am seeing is overwhelmingly for international students, not domestic.

Second this.

 

[Rerouted]

Pay guys 20K/year, take their pensions, destroy their quality of life, cut the pay at the top end of the profession that serves as the "carrot" to entice young professionals to endure the hardships early in their profession and you reap what you sew.

Simply the most accurate comment I've read on this board in years. You can't argue with sound logic.

 

[rumpletumbler]

The real crisis in flight training is the instructors who don't give a rats behind about what they're producing and thus put shat heads on the street with license to kill themselves and their families.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

To add to all that, The military this year for the first time trained more UAV pilots that pilots for manned planes. And very soon they will have a program in place where UAV pilots will not be trained in airplanes prior to flying the UAV.

 

[UndauntedFlyer]

There has to be a pilot shortage in the future. This is because the wages are now and forever to be at school teacher levels: $20K to 80K per year. That's it.

Nobody will leave the military for that kind of work plus the insecurity of the profession. Now lets look at the colleges. In 10 years 75% or more of those programs will be closed. Why, you ask? Answer: The cost of a Commerical Certificate will increase from the current level of $75K to $300K by the year 2020, plus the cost of college will double or tripple by then. So you see a college flight training program will be $500K by 2020 at a state school and it will be $1,000,000 at places like ER. No one will pay that for a job that starts a pilot out at McDonalds level wages, lets them make it up to higher levels and then closes the airline, forcing them to start all over at the bottom. It is insanity.

Yes, I know the wages will go up but not enough to attract the military pilots or those who may be choosing a career. For a pilot choosing a civilian route but without money, there will be no money available to borrow for this profession because it will be such a bad investment.

 

[avbug]

A rather broad-brush assumption that most pilots come from college flying programs. Not true.

There's no pilot shortage. There has never been one, and there is no reason to expect one.

 

[nosehair]

There's no pilot shortage. There has never been one, and there is no reason to expect one.

Wait and watch. This time it is different. All the old tried and true standards that we grew up with are changing. I don't think anybody can make an accurate forecast about anything anymore.

Even the weather is different, now.