A "Crisis" in Flight Training???

[UndauntedFlyer]

A rather broad-brush assumption that most pilots come from college flying programs. Not true.

There's no pilot shortage. There has never been one, and there is no reason to expect one.

AVBUG: It is very true, as you say, that most civilian pilots (in the past) have not necessarily come from college programs. But I can say that now things are changing rapidly. Local flight schools are ceasing operations everywhere and the levels of training is dropping to never seen low levels. The civilian flight tests are way off from there previous levels. In many locations of the country it is all but impossible to find flight training, even to just get a private pilot certificate. Yes, in the very largest areas like Arizona, Florida and California it is still possible to find a civilian flight school but not in the Heartland areas and other areas too. Learning to fly is becoming a big commitment that may likely involve long drives to a distant airport or relocating. This is all part of the problem and it is only getting worse.

As for the colleges, they are still training because young people and their parents still want their kids to go to college for something and flying is an appealing major. However, the reality of the costs compared to the jobs is now becoming a consideration. On graduation parents are writing letters of complaint to the Board of Trustees at these schools, saying that the whole program was a sham for a major. I have seen these types of letters. The result will have to be a closure of some of these college programs. The only ones that will survive will be the ones that have a foreign pilot training and recruitment program like ER.

In 5 years the costs of flying will probably double and triple in 10 years. College tuition is going way up too. These costs are becoming prohibitive and the payback does not exist.

It may take 10-years for the effect of this plus the age-65 retirements to kick in, but at that time there has to be an extreme shortage of pilots, just like in the foreign countries where the airlines and foreign governments have to train their civilian airline pilots (in the USA).

My youngest son is 18-years old and he has his commercial certificate; but, he's studying to become an electrical/computer engineer. If a flying opportunity opens up in the future, great, but no one in the flying profession should have all their eggs in one basket. No one can predict the future but I do think there will be a real pilot shortage in this country in 5 to 10 years. If not, every young person must have a back up. Aviation degrees are not a back-up.

 

[SIG600]

To add to all that, The military this year for the first time trained more UAV pilots that pilots for manned planes. And very soon they will have a program in place where UAV pilots will not be trained in airplanes prior to flying the UAV.

What rock did you dig this nugget out from under? Because it's not true. What IS true is that the USAF is ramping up (significantly) the UAS program. But to say that military wide more UAS pilots were trained than the rest of us, isn't even close to the truth.

Whoever said GI Bill money doesn't cover flight training, also partley untrue. The Montgomery GI bill remains unchanged. However the Post9/11 GI bill does NOT cover flight training (although it's 10x better than the MGIB in terms of money, schooling, the fact you can pass it on to family/kids, etc.).

 

[Secret Squirrel]

How about Newsweek. http://www.newsweek.com/id/215825/page/3





In an e-mail, Gen. David Petraeus, who commands the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan, praised Schwartz for doing "a particularly impressive job of accelerating" the deployment of UAVs, and helping the troops on the ground. This sort of joint effort may sound unremarkable, but in the annals of Army–Air Force relations, it's practically revolutionary.
In 2007, the year before Schwartz became chief, UAVs were performing 21 combat air patrols at any one time, for a total of just over 100,000 hours. By 2011, they'll reach 54 patrols and almost 350,000 hours. For now, the joystick pilots have to be certified fighter pilots as well.
But Schwartz says this requirement will be dropped, mainly because there aren't enough fighter pilots to fill the growing demand for UAV crews. "There's no need for them to be pilots," one senior Pentagon official says. "It's sort of like a union regulation."
This year, the Air Force will train more joystick pilots than new fighter and bomber pilots. "If you want to be in the center of the action, this is the place to be," Schwartz says. "It's not a temporary phenomenon…It's a sustainable career path. I've made that very clear." Lt. Col. Travis Burdine, a Predator pilot-from-afar, has gotten the message: "We all joined the Air Force to go flying, but word on the street is that job satisfaction is very high [manning a joystick]. Every day we're doing this, we're in the thick of the fight. We fly 36 [combat air patrols] a day. Where they're happening, the hottest 36 things are going on."

Looks like you need to get your head out from under the rock. The air force is replacing you faster then the Majors are outsourcing.

 

[oops!]

Here we go again...the mythical "pilot shortage" which does not now exist, and never did.

very true

 

[taters]

Well this guy is an inspiration to everyone to become a pilot...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwZWyBQeMro

what a f@ggot!!

 

[SIG600]

Looks like you need to get your head out from under the rock. The air force is replacing you faster then the Majors are outsourcing.

My head isn't under a rock, it's in Afghanistan in the middle of it. Not referencing emais, the internet, and second and info.

As I type this I'm looking at the Predator/Reaper feed coming in live.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Now that I read my own info I was technically wrong. It is just the Air force that is training more joystick pilots than Fighter/bomber pilots. So technically the MILITARY (Marines, Navy, Army, Air Force) is still "probably" training more real pilots than RC pilots. But as you can see from the article they will stop training pilots in real airplanes before they go to the RC stuff.

Hey Sig, Thanks for your service.

 

[SSDD]

By the time a pilot shortage could become a possibility, the UAV concept may be expanded to include freight, and even passengers.

Think about that for a second...

 

[mitsdriver]

I second the notion that the pilot shortage did not, does not, and will not exist. It's a total BS perpetuated by the likes of Kit Darby for their own personal gain.

And should there really be a shortage of applicants in the future for whatever reason, the regionals will simply recruit foreign "interns" from China, India, etc. to fill their right seats.

I'm afraid it will go something like this. Since China is one of the fastest growing markets in aviation, there's a need for pilots over there and many Chinese are signing up to be aviation cadets. And since it will be nice for them to gain some experience after they get their ratings, what better way to do that then arrange "internship programs" with US regionals where they'll spend a year or two gaining "real world experience"? Chinese cadets will get a few hunderd hours of right seat jet time while US regionals get influx of low cost, or free, or even paying, labor.

Sounds far-fetched? It's already happening at some 135 outfits. I think this is the way the regionals will go before they'll raise pilot pay for us. They're too cheap to do otherwise. After all, just about everything else in our country has been "outsourced"...

 

[FlyinFife]

Pay guys 20K/year, take their pensions, destroy their quality of life, cut the pay at the top end of the profession that serves as the "carrot" to entice young professionals to endure the hardships early in their profession and you reap what you sew.

Excellent statement, but I must ask: are you alluding to working in a sweatshop sewing blue jeans, or out in the field sowing crop?

 

[SIG600]

By the time a pilot shortage could become a possibility, the UAV concept may be expanded to include freight, and even passengers.

Think about that for a second...

That is at LEAST a minimum of 50 years out. Remember, UAV's aren't entirely UNMANNED. Someone is driving it. And even then, I seriously doubt the general public would trust the technology.

By then we'll all by driving flying cars, and living in cities in the sky. Ala Jetsons.... of course this all assumes we live past 2012 and the human race isn't eliminated by chem trails.

 

[UndauntedFlyer]

By the time a pilot shortage could become a possibility, the UAV concept may be expanded to include freight, and even passengers.

Think about that for a second...

SSDD: You are really correct here and it's coming faster than anyone thought. GA is being crushed so quickly that it's only a matter of time until VFR flight, except on a very limited basis around selected local areas, will be gone. In the future everything will be Positive Control under IFR or Remote control unmaned aircraft. This is coming much faster than anyone thinks.

 

[414Flyer]

Chinese cadets will get a few hunderd hours of right seat jet time while US regionals get influx of low cost, or free, or even paying, labor.

Except that US pilots already do this, flying for cheap, free or paying to fly.

Thats what I do not get about when people use the prospect of foreign pilots as some kind of boogieman that is going to come here, and take jobs by working for cheap. HELLO, pilots here are already completely willing to work for nothing. American pilots would gladly go overseas and undercut them, given the chance. Its not like our own pilots are demanding high pay and work rules and setting a high bar for the rest of the world.

In places like China and India, there is a lot of social status and respect that comes from being a professional pilot. Why would any of them give that up to come here to make less money, plus have to associate with the likes of our ipod listening, backpack wearing, spikey gel haired, blinky-wheeled rollaboard pulling types that cant wait to fly 100 seat RJs?

This idea that other countries have a glut of pilots who cant wait to come here and take jobs is just a scapegoat to blame our current problems on, since there is no excess of pilots in India and China. Last I checked, its here where we have a big excess of pilots, and that have been looking at other countries for jobs.

 

[mitsdriver]

Except that US pilots already do this, flying for cheap, free or paying to fly.

Thats what I do not get about when people use the prospect of foreign pilots as some kind of boogieman that is going to come here, and take jobs by working for cheap. HELLO, pilots here are already completely willing to work for nothing. American pilots would gladly go overseas and undercut them, given the chance. Its not like our own pilots are demanding high pay and work rules and setting a high bar for the rest of the world.

In places like China and India, there is a lot of social status and respect that comes from being a professional pilot. Why would any of them give that up to come here to make less money, plus have to associate with the likes of our ipod listening, backpack wearing, spikey gel haired, blinky-wheeled rollaboard pulling types that cant wait to fly 100 seat RJs?

This idea that other countries have a glut of pilots who cant wait to come here and take jobs is just a scapegoat to blame our current problems on, since there is no excess of pilots in India and China. Last I checked, its here where we have a big excess of pilots, and that have been looking at other countries for jobs.

Read my post again. I've said that it is already happening here with some outfits. My point is that if/when regionals can't find enough low-cost labor domestically, they'll simply look for them from other sources before having to raise the pay to attract local talents. Hence no real pilot shortage...

And those foreign cadets won't be coming here to take our jobs per se. They will be coming here NOT because there are no flying jobs to be had in their homeland, but because there are/will be a high demand of pilots in a growing aviation industry and they want to be a part of it. They'll simply be here just long enough to rack up enough hours to make themselves marketable so they can go back to their home countries and be part of an elevated and respected profession (and earn paychecks befitting that status). None of them will be interested in staying at US regionals for a long term. Why should they be? It'll just be a revolving door that regionals will use to fill their seats at a minimal cost, and for those foreign cadets to use as a stepping stone on their way to bigger and better things in their respective homeland.

My point is that those forigners will be here seeking NOT EMPLOYMENT, BUT TIMEBUILDING. And that US regionals will be happy to use them as a source of low-cost, temporary labor. This is not some "phobia" towards forigners. If/when those cadets come here for the said purpose, I will not fault them one bit. I will however fault US regionals for taking advantage of such situation to get around the labor cost issues.

 

[414Flyer]

And its also a hypothetical threat that cant even exist without some kind of foreign work visa program. And I do not see any kind of foreign airline pilot visa program ever happening here, because there is not a true shortage at all, and not even a shortage right now even for the low paying regionals. There is still a surplus of labor, and there will be for the forseable future

But foreigners often do not have to build time in their own countries. Many of them go straight to major airlines in their own countries. There was such a shortage in India a couple of years ago, it almost shut down their flight training, when airlines were snatching up any all all CFIs and putting them right into Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

For major airlines here to start using foreign labor, it would require a work visa program and that would just not be politically feasable or practical. Besides, these same time building programs also exist overseas in some places too, and there are Americans that go over there and buy time in. This is just some hypothetical boogieman scenary that has not materialized, and nor is there any kind of demand for foreign aircrew visas.

Rather than focusing towards foreign pilots as a potential (and nonexistent) problem, we should be looking at the actual problems that exist now in our industry. Its our own pilots here who will do anything and work for any wage, in the pursuit of "experience", are a real threat, and not something hypothetical of pilots from foreign s************************* who still actually have real shortages in their countries.

EDIT - wow, the word s-h-o-r-e-s is somehow censored. Hope I dont get banned for actually spelling out that word.