Oil at $45 per barrel !!!

[RCA]

I love Flightinfo.Priceberbarrel.com

 

[ACL65PILOT]

The price is being driven down by shorts. Just like the reverse this summer. Not speculation, yeah right!

 

[skyaddict]

I'm not sure if we hit peak oil just yet, but if we didn't, why did world oil production not increase in response to those sky high prices we just saw? Production has been stable for several years now, hasn't it? Maybe that's just a pause, but I wouldn't bet on this global-recession triggered price plunge being proof that peak oil is a myth.

 

[HAL]

why did world oil production not increase in response to those sky high prices we just saw?

Because the oil prices spiked over a period of less than a year. Lead times for planning and building additional refining capability (along with associated pipelines, tanker docks, and other facilities) is at least a decade. You can't just put up additional refineries in a year or so. And today the guys looking ten years out are now seeing a large decline in oil usage as the effects of this year's spike take hold in the form of reduced usage, and more efficient usage. They're not likely to start additional refineries when we'll be using less oil in the future.

Something else that is forgotten is the gas lines of the 70's.

That is actually what I was referring to in my original post regarding previous economic ups and downs. The 'kids' today don't remember it, but some of us 'elders' do, even if we weren't driving yet when it happened. At the time, the news reports made it sound like the end of the world, just as today's breathless reports on CNN, CNBC, & Fox do. This too shall pass.

HAL

 

[skyaddict]

Because the oil prices spiked over a period of less than a year. Lead times for planning and building additional refining capability (along with associated pipelines, tanker docks, and other facilities) is at least a decade.

Good points re. long term production trends, but I am still suspicious re. the big Saudi fields that remain the backbone of world production. Their output barely budged during the price run-up. Even Bush's pathetic little sword dance with the Saudi King didn't yield him much. Combined with the lack of transparency as to the actual state of Saudi reserves, it suggests that peak oil (peak of that which can basically be pumped for free by OPEC as opposed to the new sources such as tar sands and shale that are very, very expensive to produce) can't be that easily dismissed by this price plummet.

 

[LearLove]

It doesn't matter anyway - management will find some excuse besides oil to use against us.

LCC said they'd look at the furloughs again if oil came back down. So now it is about $100 cheaper and no peep from them, but I guess they must have looked at it again because bid (09-01) has 5 additional furloughs from the orginal 125 on the east side for 130 total (east).

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.HAL

People control the market?

 

[noperf]

Heyas,

Something else that is forgotten is the gas lines of the 70's.

Even with the run up in oil in the last year, there was NO shortage of actual fuel (except for the brief, localized shortage in the SE due to the hurricane). At any point during the runup, I could go out and buy gas with no line, no hassles. Hardly a shortage.

Back in the day of the 70's embargo, you could only buy gas on even/odd days (based on your license plate), and only if you had less than 1/2 tank. Even then, you'd wait in huge lines and you saw a LOT of stations with "No Gas". And a greater percentage of our fuel was domestically produced.

As an engineer, I hate ethanol. It's a crappy fuel, for any number of reasons. Methanol is no better, and butanol, which is VERY similar to gasoline in heat content, is a pain in the a$$ to make (energy sink).

With that said, the best way to lock out these kinds of run ups is with fuel competition. Someone posted a vid of a very good presentation that mentioned that if we all drove flex fuel vehicles, you remove the pricing power of OPEC, which, IMHO, is a good thing.

Nu

The reason for the lines and even/odd days at gas stations in the 70's wasn't because of a lack of fuel. There were wage and price controls in effect. Gas station owners couldn't raise the price of gas so as to dampen demand and to cover operational expenses so they limited station hours. This forced the same number of drivers to stations durring fewer hours of the day. They also limited total gallon purchases so drivers would go from station to station to purchase fuel. The total available gasoline supplies durring this time were about the same year over year. Gas station then were actually service stations that made money from automobile maintainence not from candy, tobacco, and beer sales like today.

 

[HAL]

The reason for the lines and even/odd days at gas stations in the 70's wasn't because of a lack of fuel.

Yes it was. It was called the Arab Oil Embargo. Saudi Arabia cut oil exports to the US and the Netherlands on October 16 1973,because of our support of Israel during the Yom Kippur war. There were other reasons for gas price increases during the 70's but that one shortage with long lines was a direct result of the embargo. I lived through it, and remember it well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

HAL

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

Don't you just love revisionists, HAL?

 

[noperf]

That Wikipedia article actually mentions price controls as did my post. There's no revisionism inherent in my post.

 

[jhill]

The reason for the lines and even/odd days at gas stations in the 70's wasn't because of a lack of fuel. There were wage and price controls in effect. Gas station owners couldn't raise the price of gas so as to dampen demand and to cover operational expenses so they limited station hours. This forced the same number of drivers to stations durring fewer hours of the day. They also limited total gallon purchases so drivers would go from station to station to purchase fuel. The total available gasoline supplies durring this time were about the same year over year. Gas station then were actually service stations that made money from automobile maintainence not from candy, tobacco, and beer sales like today.

Where the hell do you get your info?

 

[noperf]

Price controls are adressed in the Wikipedia article previously posted.


For more reading try "Basic Economics" By Dr. Thomas Sowell.

 

[Captzaahlie]

It doesn't matter anyway - management will find some excuse besides oil to use against us.

LCC said they'd look at the furloughs again if oil came back down. So now it is about $100 cheaper and no peep from them, but I guess they must have looked at it again because bid (09-01) has 5 additional furloughs from the orginal 125 on the east side for 130 total (east).

Quick somebody call Tempe and let mission control know the price is below $100 a barrel!

 

[contrail67]

I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL

Alot of folks on this board aso are the failed interview group for a specific airline and they go on here to be the "loud" one and try to predict the failure of the airline that turned them down.....so sad for their own destruction. What a miserable life they must have....especially when times turn around.

 

[LearLove]

Alot of folks on this board aso are the failed interview group for a specific airline and they go on here to be the "loud" one and try to predict the failure of the airline that turned them down.....so sad for their own destruction. What a miserable life they must have....especially when times turn around.

what the he11 does this have to do with the price of oil or HAL's post?

 

[ron burgundy]

" Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank."

That's exactly what I have been telling people.

Since 1973.

YKMKR

I'm a Captain for a major airline. I don't care about the price of gas (mine or the company's). The money rolls in faster than I can spend it. That's why I own a HUMMER (and cause I have a small d!!k), two wives,
a 1.1 million dollar home, and a Porshe. I AM SOMEBODY!!