BREAKING NEWS about UAL

[johnboy99]

Somebody keeps telling me Jetblue has a $600 million balloon payment coming up this year. Can someone explain what this is, and when or if it's due.

Don't know alot about reading our 10K that would be a question for Commander Clueless AKA Andy. I know we have a $175 million note due next month and somewhere I read the next big payment comes due in 2010 for about $200-250 million I cannot find the email to verify it. You don't have to finish this race with oil prices in first place. You just have to finish ahead of the weakest link which appears like it could be United. Tilton could take a few lessons from Mr. Barger on how to run an airline.

 

[pilotgolfer]

Yep. I knew one guy personally. I also know some from Jetblue and AirTran that went back.

Don't jump to the conclusion that people left JBLU, Airtran, NetJets etc because they thought UAL was a better opportunity, more stable, and so on and so forth.

Personally, I left JBLU to eliminate my commute. I liked working there and I knew there was a ton of risk in going to UAL. I thought a 30 minute drive to work was worth it. Many of the other people that either took recall to United or went as new hires were all from the Chicago area. I know a NetJet guy that was in the class behind me and a JetBlue 190 Capt that wanted to be based in ORD.

I took a gamble and it looks like its not going to pay off in the short term. Check back in a few years and I'll let you know if it was worth it.

 

[MountainFreak]

I don't know Andy, but he has been very close in most of his predictions/analysis. Sometimes a little too pesimistic maybe, but I'll believe him before all the "it can't happen to me" silliness I read here.

And he has never pulled any punches as to United's position. He calls them as he sees them.

 

[FLYLOW22]

Don't jump to the conclusion that people left JBLU, Airtran, NetJets etc because they thought UAL was a better opportunity, more stable, and so on and so forth.

Who the hell left NJA for UAL in the last several years?!?!?

None that I know of.

 

[CA1900]

Are there guys out there that left NetJets to go to United in its current form?

I haven't heard that, but it wouldn't surprise me. Hell, we had guys leave NetJets to go to Skybus! I guess if you really want to fly a big jet, you'll take the risk, but it's an awfully big one right now.

 

[contrail67]

Don't jump to the conclusion that people left JBLU, Airtran, NetJets etc because they thought UAL was a better opportunity, more stable, and so on and so forth.

Personally, I left JBLU to eliminate my commute. I liked working there and I knew there was a ton of risk in going to UAL. I thought a 30 minute drive to work was worth it. Many of the other people that either took recall to United or went as new hires were all from the Chicago area. I know a NetJet guy that was in the class behind me and a JetBlue 190 Capt that wanted to be based in ORD.

I took a gamble and it looks like its not going to pay off in the short term. Check back in a few years and I'll let you know if it was worth it.

Depending on your age it will pay off in the long run....what so many people on this board don't know is that parking the aircraft is based on them negotiating new lease terms....says right in the company news launch....this small sentence may be bigger than you think.

 

[contrail67]

Who the hell left NJA for UAL in the last several years?!?!?

None that I know of.

I know of several since UAL was hiring last summer.

 

[FLYLOW22]

Depending on your age it will pay off in the long run....what so many people on this board don't know is that parking the aircraft is based on them negotiating new lease terms....says right in the company news launch....this small sentence may be bigger than you think.

Sure about that?

 

[pilotgolfer]

Depending on your age it will pay off in the long run....what so many people on this board don't know is that parking the aircraft is based on them negotiating new lease terms....says right in the company news launch....this small sentence may be bigger than you think.

I'm no brain like "Andy", but I don't think United has any leverage to re-negotiate anything. They've already used the BK process to the max extent possible. I think they know if they enter Chapter 11 that its game over. Nobody in their right mind would give them the financing to emerge from BK. It becomes a hollow threat to use the BK process again. The pilot concession stand is closed so we'll see what their next move is.

I think CAL tried to re-negotiate their leases and were basically told that they were out of luck unless a BK judge was going to enforce it.

There are too many moving parts to this puzzle to make any predictions...so I think I'll have another beer. I'm gonna go watch the Blue Angels tomorrow in Ocean City and build sand castles with my boys. Tilton and Tague can't screw that up for me...oh yea...don't forget that Mega Millions ticket for tonight!

 

[Andy]

Don't know alot about reading our 10K that would be a question for Commander Clueless AKA Andy. I know we have a $175 million note due next month and somewhere I read the next big payment comes due in 2010 for about $200-250 million I cannot find the email to verify it. You don't have to finish this race with oil prices in first place. You just have to finish ahead of the weakest link which appears like it could be United. Tilton could take a few lessons from Mr. Barger on how to run an airline.

I've been absent from the board for the last couple of days. A bit sensitive, aren't we? Here's a link from JetBlue's website to the latest 10Q: http://investor.jetblue.com/phoenix...yZXBvPXRlbmsmaXBhZ2U9NTYyMTMzMSZhdHRhY2g9T04=

I call your attention to page 10. According to the chart, as of 31 Mar 08, JBLU had payments of $1.247B due for the balance of 2008. Those payments are for Long-term debt and capital lease obligations, Lease commitments, Flight equipment obligations, Short-term borrowings, and Financing obligations and other.
I would suggest that whatever e-mail you have is in direct conflict with the 10Q that JBLU filed with the SEC.

 

[Andy]

I'm no brain like "Andy", but I don't think United has any leverage to re-negotiate anything. They've already used the BK process to the max extent possible. I think they know if they enter Chapter 11 that its game over. Nobody in their right mind would give them the financing to emerge from BK. It becomes a hollow threat to use the BK process again. The pilot concession stand is closed so we'll see what their next move is.

I think CAL tried to re-negotiate their leases and were basically told that they were out of luck unless a BK judge was going to enforce it.

I'm definitely no brain; you can confirm that with my wife.
I tend to agree that the bulk of cuts at United was done during the bankruptcy. Also, DIP financing would not be easy to find at a reasonable rate. The credit markets are tightening on a daily basis. Once Lehman Brothers implodes, it'll only get worse - unless the Fed comes up with some sort of rescue plan, but they're pretty much out of bullets.
I think that United can cut its size without a trip to bankruptcy court. Bankruptcy is hugely expensive.

About the best thing that United has going for it is $3B in unencumbered assets. Whether or not they can get a loan at decent interest rates is another story.
While it's going to assure that I'm out on the street again (no worries; I made more in the markets today than I make in a year yanking gear on the 757), United and all carriers need to reduce expenses as quickly as possible. That means shedding aircraft. Lots of aircraft.
United also has some aircraft coming off of lease this fall. They can further reduce the fleet by not renewing the leases.
I'm waiting to see what they do as far as the express partners. I thought that they'd cut them, but right now, the plan calls for expansion. They're likely trying to maintain as much frequency as they can, but that's a more expensive alternative than cutting express carriers and upguaging with less frequency.

 

[Andy]

Andy,
He is talking in general terms referencing UAL, Frontier, Spirit, Airtran, US Air etc. I know you have done a lot of research and you are a smart guy, but if you are so smart, why did you not get hired by someone else like SWA or Fedex/UPS when you were furloughed by United last time? Everyone was hiring, and you seem to believe you have a crystal ball, so why can't people make generalizations about their airline without you jumping in with your crystal ball which appears to have a blind spot in it?

I spent the bulk of my furlough working in the reserves full time; long enough to qualify for an active duty retirement.
I also wanted to get job skills outside of flying; this job is not going to pay what it used to. Besides, post-911, it's just a job to me; the thrill is gone.

I don't have a crystal ball. What's the deal with this website? It seems to be on estrogen overload.

 

[(o) (o)]

I am sure they have a inside track to United...not!....maybe to Greyhound! since that is your competition!

That's probably the funniest.....and CORRECT statement read here on F.I.

 

[DOVPILOT]

:angryfire

 

[cgmason1]

I haven't heard that, but it wouldn't surprise me. Hell, we had guys leave NetJets to go to Skybus! I guess if you really want to fly a big jet, you'll take the risk, but it's an awfully big one right now.

I don't think its all about flying bigger jets-some people just dislike the day to day job at NJA and don't want to do that for the rest of their careers.
Just like if you didnt like the airline lifestyle-you would look elsewhere.