CAL/UAL merger statistics

[SuperFLUF]

I don't think you are actually at CO, I think you are a troll. But for the sake of argument, let's say you are. Once again for the slow people in the room (ie SFR):

Expectations from 6 months ago mean nothing. Zero. Zilch. Not from CO, and not from UA. Everything is a new world.

If you want to use career expectiations from the past, fine, we can all pick and choose.

You can choose:

CO pilot's expectations from the 1 year ago (good), and a UA pilot's expectations from 2003 (terrible).

But wait, I get to choose too:

I pick my old expectations from 1999 (wow those are good memories! 747-400's to new hires...), and I pick a CO pilot's expectations from say the first or second BK (not so good).

Now, we just have to get an arbitrator to decide which historical fantasy world to use...

Get the idea? None of the above is going to happen! We have good MEC people at BOTH companies working hard right now to make sure neither side gets boned. If it ever got to arbitration, which I hope it doesn't, he/she isn't going to use best case (for SFR) historical model. The arbitrator will use the world on the day of arbitration, a world of $130 barrel oil, where aircraft orders may be more of a liability than an asset, where we are all losing our shirts, a world where ALL our career expectations suck.

If UA/CO merge, we will work it out just fine. No thanks to SFR though.

Exactly. (good post)

Tilton's yearnings aside. If CAL chooses to marry up with UAL it will be because the outlook is not good for either party to go it alone. That pretty much evens out the career expectations argument.

 

[ATRCA]

Are you expecting different at CAL? Heck, how many upgrades TOTAL do you expect to see in the next 5 years at CAL?
Word is that Captain's bids are being cancelled there. True or not?

I posted previously that CAL had a large training pipeline; it was necessary due to all of the seat changes. Very reminiscent of USAirways back in 99/00. Once the music stopped at Airways, they were overmanned. Hiring's stopped at CAL; are you sure you aren't overmanned?
Isn't CAL starting to offer COLAs for pilots? For those that don't know, COLA is Company Offered Leave of Absence.

If you want to talk career expectations, have you compared ratios of widebodies at each company? Have you considered what will happen to CAL's international expansion plans now that DAL and NWA are merging? I don't think that you understand how this will negatively impact CAL's SkyTeam revenues.

Get real dude. CAL has over 100 a/c deliveries scheduled for the next three years. UAL does not have a SINGLE new a/c on order. CAL just ordered an additional 8 777's. UAL lost over a half a billion dollars in a single quarter. New hires at CAL on the 73 are line holders after 4 weeks. The 756 is also avial to new hires. Career expectations could not be further apart.

UAL was once a fantastic and powerful airline. It is no longer. Which airline needs this merger more? If you think its CAL you are simply ignoring the numbers. With any luck there will be no CAL/UAL merger and none of this will matter.

 

[ATRCA]

Relative seniority is good. But no way should a 757 FO at CAL be junior to any 737 or Airbus FO at UAL.

Run along now jr. Nothing for you here.

 

[Fubijaakr]

If UAL and CAL merge...you better believe CAL boys are not going to stand for DOH.

DoH will never happen again in the airline industry unless the two pilot groups involved agree to it. Since these are both ALPA groups, BY LAW the ALPA merger/frag policy is invoked.

And DoH is not a part of the merger/frag policy.

 

[Flopgut]

Andy and Mountain Freak have the situation correctly characterized if you ask this CAL pilot. We've got scabs, they've got scabs. We've got a few strikers left and so do they. The rest of us need to keep our heads on straight and this would be a good deal for all of us. However, I think UAL is going to entertain a USAir deal first. JMHO. That ain't going to be good for CAL.

 

[Uniform Shop]

[However, I think UAL is going to entertain a USAir deal first. JMHO. That ain't going to be good for CAL./QUOTE]

Could be good too. I have a lot of confidence in our management team to figure something out. They said there are about 6 options on the table 1 being UAL. If we merge with AA then I agree it would be BAD!!!!!!!

 

[Flopgut]

Maybe, when considering an end result of CAL and AA, regulators will decide ALL these mergers are too bad and block them? I mean, in the context of DAL/NWA and UAL/US and AA/CAL...that may just be too much?

Bad for CAL/AA! Can't imagine how much we'd have to give up in that deal.

 

[MountainFreak]

CO/AA and UA/LCC would be a catastrophe for all involved. However, all those are unlikely.

CO/AA rumors sound like nothing more than negotiating tactics. They would have to give up half of Texas to actually make it happen.

UA/LCC might make sense on paper (to an executive), but I don't think they are that stupid. What is really driving that particular rumor is JP Morgan. They have their own agenda -clearly they calculate UA/LCC is the biggest payoff for them.

I think we all know that UA/CO is likely. Not saying it will happen, just more chance of that than anything. UA can't stay by itself, we have boxed ourself in a corner. CO can't either; Skyteam is no longer viable for them. Probably some short term pain, but it looks like the best of bad options for all of us.

I think there is one big elephant in the room driving consolodation, but we hardly ever talk about it- reregulation. It could actually happen, and any airline wants to maximize its size and route stucture when the government calls "freeze".

 

[MountainFreak]

Hate to be a loser and reply to myself, but I just turned on the TV after I posted.
What did I see but the tail end of Lou Dobbs show with Bob Crandall calling for re-regulation of the airlines! Might happen sooner than we think...

 

[chppr5]

UAL is not currently talking with CAL. Active talks with LCC for the last 2 weeks. Straight from # 4 at UAL..