Will DAL/NW Merge? Yay or Nay?

[tiffanytaylor]

Nay...haven't heard any positive rumblings today

 

[NuGuy]

My bet is no. The DAL proposal is SO rank, its a non starter.

Unless the DAL guys crawl down from their high horse, or Anderson and Co decide to force the issue, it's done.

Nu

 

[FDJ2]

My bet is no. The DAL proposal is SO rank, its a non starter. Nu

You have no idea what you are talking about and certainly no details of what was proposed.

 

[737 Pylt]

My bet is no. The DAL proposal is SO rank, its a non starter.

Really? What are your sources?

Unless the DAL guys crawl down from their high horse, or Anderson and Co decide to force the issue, it's done.

Nu

You really need to get a grip on reality!

737

 

[~~~^~~~]

It is hard to say Yes, or No. The analysts are struggling with the same question.

There is little doubt a Delta NWA merger would be better for the combined airlines. The global reach of this combination would make it "one he11 of an airline." AirFrance's cash would be used to fund expansion.

It probably is good in the long term for the involved pilots once the pain of SLI is absorbed. The "Fair Plan" I posted seems like the most painless way to integrate for the pilots and the Company.

Both DAL and NWA will continue without this merger. It is not do, or die. However, fuel prices and open skies may force consolidation in the future at a point where the merger might not be as relatively painless as it is now.

Delta's internal rumblings are that planned 777 growth would more than absorb the displaced NWA pilots and there would still be new hires (recently revised upwards to 500).

I think the NWA pilots are walking away from a "once in a lifetime" opportunity. The Delta pilots' Reps seem to realize that this merger is better than the potential alternatives and have been working with management to try to get this deal done. The NWA pilots's Reps may not have been studying industry consolidation as long as their Delta counterparts and may still be at a different point on the learning curve.

Delta seems OK with walking away and reporting to the hedge funds that they gave Wall Street's merger push a good faith effort. Besides, the "synergies" Wall Street wants can be 99% achieved through partnerships and code share. It stinks for the pilots because it could easily result in whip saw where international flights are given to the lowest bidder.

Where you stand on this merger depends on your time horizon. I doubt anyone would say it is a good deal for the next 12 months. Starting with the ramped up 777 & 787 deliveries it would look like a pilots' paradise.

 

[Pilotbob3]

DOH is the only fair way to go. Plus the easiest.

 

[Andy]

Nay.

I hope nay; that'd make a UAL/CAL merge pretty much dead. If UAL were to merge, I'd want it to be with CAL, but I really DO NOT want to have to go through the pain of a merge.

 

[Yuppyguppy]

Yeah but it would get rid of Tilton

 

[captbert]

Relative seniority is the only fair and easy way to go. Anyone asking for DOH is just being greedy. If you are 50% at your current company, then you should be 50% at a merged company. We all made a decision on which company to apply and work, and depending on attrition and growth/stagnation your seniority number is what it is.

With a relative seniority merger, you then put up big tall fences to protect respective flying and bases.

 

[FDJ2]

I think the NWA pilots are walking away from an excellent opportunity. The Delta pilots may just be happy to let them walk. But, in the end, they would be better off together.

That's probably an accurate assessment of the situation as it exist today.

If we don't work out our differences this year we'll probably be revisiting this merger next year under less beneficial circumstances, with few if any contractual gains. The good news for the DAL pilots is we'll have twice as many 777s and more wide bodied flying, compared to NWA which will probably have a reduced fleet with possibly half as many 747s.

 

[B737 Guy]

DOH is the only fair way to go. Plus the easiest.

Aren't you ex TWA/AA? How'd that DOH thing work out for you? Perhaps you should ask the AM West and US Airways guys how that worked.

 

[FBN0223]

I think the NWA pilots are walking away from a "once in a lifetime" opportunity.

It maybe a once in a life time opportunity but for the record, most NWA pilots would rather not be part of a merger with Delta.

 

[~~~^~~~]

FBN:

This deal has happened so fast that there has not been time (or time has not been taken) to communicate to the membership solid information and manage expectations.

Someone smarter than me would have to advise if it is better to take the membership into these things with blinders on. I'd think Pilots are people who like to have solid information, who plan for contingencies and who are able to see long term.

I watched one potential good deal die in 1999 because the membership lacked the information to understand the benefits of a merger and effective scope. There is this odd feeling in the pit of my stomache that tells me we once again might lose an opportunity as a result of a failure of long term vision.

Mergers share a lot with investors who try to time the stock market. Overall, unity pays long term dividends.

 

[~~~^~~~]

It maybe a once in a life time opportunity but for the record, most NWA pilots would rather not be part of a merger with Delta.

I'm very curious, why?

 

[NuGuy]

I'm very curious, why?

Two words....General Lee...

Not necessarily the man, the myth, the legend himself, but rather the whole stale attitude.

You guys want to make diamonds with your a$$holes, fine, but we'll pass...

Nu

 

[Truckdriver]

I'm saying Yea. Very quiet with no more "leaks" coming out means that everyone has been pressured to shut up because the deal is happening. When you get lots of leaks you know it will be awhile, when it's nice and quiet something is going down. If the pilots have agreed on a joint labor contract the company can get most of the synergies they need and let us fight out the SLI over time. SLI doesn't matter to them, it's the labor contract which it sounds like the MEC's agreed on. My bet is that it goes through and we work on SLI over the next couple of years.

 

[nwaredtail]

Ratioed list. 2007 hires next to 1995 hires. As he said, a non-starter, sorry!

 

[On Your Six]

Nay...haven't heard any positive rumblings today

I think it would be a strong business combination if the two pilot groups could actually work together. You could argue that, excluding the current pilot mess at USAirways, the result is much stronger than an independent AWA or a liqidated USAirways.

By the way, the DOH remark made by PilotBob3 is a$$inine. I suppose he is aware of Delta's 2500 PICs who retired over the last few years. Clearly that would leave a very loppsided DOH list - wouldn't you agree? NWA pilots traded off pay and work rules to keep their pensions and a lot of that would be restored or improved upon for them in a merger scenario. They would BENEFIT from this merger from a salary and work rules perspective. DAL pilots would see no major improvement beyond additional equity if I understand the situation correctly - no salary or work rules improvement.

The benefit for both pilot groups would be a much stronger employer with more job security and more resources for continued growth. Sure, both could survive independently, but growth would be incremental and redundant. Delta would gradually expand into other parts of Asia and Northwest might add a few South American or additional European routes as aircraft became available. Neither would necessarily be considered the true market leader - and both would be more susceptible to economic fluctuations and domestic competitive threats. The combined airline could offer more compelling worldwide connections and one-stop shopping for huge multinationals looking for corporate accounts.

It might work out well - too bad the pilot groups can't seem to see the forrest through the trees...

 

[FDJ2]

What's not to like? Republic guys getting a widebody? Is an SLI that would allow a DAL pilot to keep his seat and relative seniority a deal breaker?

I think the bigger hang up will be the relationship amongst the NWA committee members than between the DAL and NWA MECs.

This entire concept of getting out in front of a merger appears to be an alien concept to some members of the NWA committees. The NWA pilots have a more divided group, MEC, and committee structure. Therefore they need more time to debate the pros and cons and reach a consensus, or at least get it out of their merger committee and in front of their full MEC for debate.

We'll see how it all turns out. There is no attempt to cram anything down. If the deal doesn't work either the entire concept of merging is rejected for the time being or we'll go down the traditional route of merging, with no bennies, no joint contract, no contractual improvements for the foreseeable future and probably end up in arbitration.

 

[Truckdriver]

Ratioed list. 2007 hires next to 1995 hires. As he said, a non-starter, sorry!

Date of hire means squat here. What matters is that you end up no better or worse off on the combined list. If you are at 80% on the NWA list now, you should end up at 80% on the combined list. Same goes for the Delta guys. I expect to be the same relative seniority on a combined list, nothing more, nothing less. What is so unfair about that???