Leave Alaska for UAL?

[MTV]

TK = United training center in denver, A big brown brick building, or it could be Turkish Air.

 

[Andy]

Did you use to fly for Turkish Airlines or am I missing something?

Sorry; TK is the abbreviation given for United Airlines' Training Center.
Substitute Delta, American and United in that statement, and you can find identical comments from 2000 on any pilot hiring board.

I found Baze's original statement hilariously naive; it's been uttered about the 'hot' airline of the day for longer than he's been alive.

 

[regionaltard]

I'd stay at Alaska...and from me, that's really saying something.

Wow, Skanky Ann saying that she'll vote for Hillary and now this...

 

[Eagle757shark]

I am posting this for a friend who is currently flying for Alaska (2 years seniority), lives in Denver, and is trying to decide whether or not to make the jump to UAL. Pay seems comparable between the two, but the concerns are possible mergers/acquisitions and the long-term viability of the two carriers.

Thoughts?

Thanks!

Is he interested in American Airlines? Most likely if Delta merges with Northwest, and Continental merges with United, American will probable look to acquire Alaska. Just a good chance.

 

[wscrj]

Is he interested in American Airlines? Most likely if Delta merges with Northwest, and Continental merges with United, American will probable look to acquire Alaska. Just a good chance.

WHY would they do that? Go through all the headaches of a merger for barely a third of the assets?

 

[AKMD80GUY]

I've been at AS for 8 years and not a day goes by that I don't think of going somewhere else. But
I have to agree with the majority that times are uncertain, it's best to stay put. I commute as well and the only way I leave now is to find something outside of the flightdeck.

 

[johnsonrod]

What are the estimated upgrade times at UAL for newbie 737 or Airbus FOs? 15 years? And that's without a merger scenario. Does that sound like fun?

FYI, Netjets, Flexjet and Citationshares are hiring and they have domiciles in Denver and they have all boosted their starting salaries to the $60K range.

 

[Andy]

What are the estimated upgrade times at UAL for newbie 737 or Airbus FOs? 15 years? And that's without a merger scenario. Does that sound like fun?

How would you even compute that anymore? I've got no idea.
Glancing at the seniority list, it looks like the newest hire is 2500 or so numbers from the junior Capt.
Let's assume zero growth forever. Let's further assume 5 years of stagnation due to no one retiring until age 65. It will take until 2021 to have 2500 pilots on the current list retire. So that's 13 years.
On the flip side, United's seen multiple years of hiring more than 1000 pilots at a whack. In that case, it'd be 3 years to upgrade.
With age 65, all of the legacies are going to see upgrade times increase exponentially. Previous poster mentioned the current 'stable airlines' (ROTFLMAO!) of SWA, FedEx, UPS - using the same criteria, I'm sure that you'll find that upgrade times exceed ten years.

 

[av8instyle]

Previous poster mentioned the current 'stable airlines' (ROTFLMAO!) of SWA, FedEx, UPS - using the same criteria, I'm sure that you'll find that upgrade times exceed ten years.

Andy - When you are done ROTFLYAO you will probably realize that it wasn't really that funny. IMO. FYI, GTG. BB. LOL.

 

[av8instyle]

Huh?

I'd stay at Alaska...and from me, that's really saying something.

Ferlo you feelin' OK?
I think you forgot to log out somewhere.

 

[Flyprdu]

S T F U

 

[ferlo]

Ferlo you feelin' OK?
I think you forgot to log out somewhere.

Holy Sh*t!!!

Stockholm Syndrome is REAL...

Seriously, I think UAL is getting carved up like a thanksgiving turkey. The easy money is on Alaska...as much as it gives me stomach cramps to admit it.

 

[Andy]

Seriously, I think UAL is getting carved up like a thanksgiving turkey. The easy money is on Alaska...as much as it gives me stomach cramps to admit it.

UAL carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey? Interesting thought, but I don't see it. The economic cycle is rapidly heading into a deep recession and credit markets have all but shut down.
UAL has enough cash on hand to get through several down quarters before having to raise additional capital. UAL's debt has also been trimmed, not only through bankruptcy, but also by paying down $2.3B of debt in 2007. They also do not have any large CapEx going forward (read: aircraft orders).
For UAL to be likely to be carved up, it would either have to be in dire financial straits (their balance sheet is as healthy as any other carrier, so I don't see this) or there would have to be functional credit markets where an outside business could easily raise capital to purchase pieces of UAL.
If you take the time to research the credit markets, you'll find that they are in complete turmoil. The Fed's TAF (term auction facility) was an interesting attempt to get the markets moving again, but the problem is that there is a huge flight to safety.

As far as Alaska v United, I don't know which seniority list will do better in the upcoming economic downturn. For United, they have a fairly large pilot shortage and most pilots are tired of flying high credit hour lines. I view this as a positive for United; they can easily trim mainline block hours without having to reduce pilot headcount.

 

[ferlo]

UAL carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey? Interesting thought, but I don't see it. The economic cycle is rapidly heading into a deep recession and credit markets have all but shut down.
UAL has enough cash on hand to get through several down quarters before having to raise additional capital. UAL's debt has also been trimmed, not only through bankruptcy, but also by paying down $2.3B of debt in 2007. They also do not have any large CapEx going forward (read: aircraft orders).
For UAL to be likely to be carved up, it would either have to be in dire financial straits (their balance sheet is as healthy as any other carrier, so I don't see this) or there would have to be functional credit markets where an outside business could easily raise capital to purchase pieces of UAL.
If you take the time to research the credit markets, you'll find that they are in complete turmoil. The Fed's TAF (term auction facility) was an interesting attempt to get the markets moving again, but the problem is that there is a huge flight to safety.

As far as Alaska v United, I don't know which seniority list will do better in the upcoming economic downturn. For United, they have a fairly large pilot shortage and most pilots are tired of flying high credit hour lines. I view this as a positive for United; they can easily trim mainline block hours without having to reduce pilot headcount.

I think UAL could be the sacrificial lamb to appease regulators in the next round of mergers. With DAL/NWA basically done, it's a virtual certainty something involving UAL is going to rear it's ugly head shortly. I don't think it's a matter of UAL's stand alone strengths, I think they just be thrown under the bus so that a few exec. teams can line their pockets with truckloads of cash.

Also, Alaska hasn't furloughed anybody since 1980. They've pissed everybody off since then but they've been kept on the payroll.

 

[Singlecoil]

The economic cycle is rapidly heading into a deep recession and credit markets have all but shut down.

Now call me crazy, but isn't this a good thing? Hear me out: Airlines have all basically cut costs about as far as they can, at least the controllable ones. They are having a tough time on the revenue side and fares are not capable of going much lower. They are of the mindset that they need to keep fares low to keep the planes absolutely full.
Now if we go into a global recession, one of the first effects will be a drastic reduction in the price of crude oil due to decreased demand. This has happened time and again. People will also travel less, but there are always those folks who are going to have to travel. The way I see it, a recession could actually help the airlines if the price of oil, and hence costs, decrease more rapidly than revenue decreases. With fares as cheap as they are, maybe you'll have 20 people not be able to travel. 20 people who aren't paying that much in the first place, thereby freeing up 20 seats for us non-revs.
You heard it here first: Recession=healthier airlines and easier non-revving.