BengalsFan
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 20, 2005
- Posts
- 240
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I'm happy I separated and went to the ANG but with age 60 changes I think taking the bonus right now is a better option than its been in a long, long time.
SCENARIOS:
1. Stay in the AF, take the bonus, make O-4 and retire as an O-4 at 20, then hired at SWA (with AF retirement pay)
2. Stay in the AF, take the bonus, make O-4 and O-5 and retire as an O-5 at 20, then hired at SWA (with AF retirement pay)
3. Leave AF at 10, get hired by SWA
ASSUMPTIONS:
- FY2007 USAF pay scale before taxes
- BAS/BAH is the "average" BAH for FY07 plus std officer BAS
- 10-year UPT commitment (so age 31/32 is the "break" point)
- Promotion to Maj at 10 years in scenario 1 and 2
- Promotion to Lt Col at 16 years in scenario 2
- Make gates to maintain ACIP at FY07 rate in scenario 1 and 2
- Took "pilot bonus" at current 25K/year in scenario 1 and 2
- SWA 2007 pay scale as shown on APC
- Upgrade to Capt at 7 years
- 78 hours/month, as described on APC's SWA page
- Fly till age 65
The results? I'm surprised by what I see:
TOTAL AGE 32 to 65 EARNINGS:
Scenario 1: $5,728,034.00
Scenario 2: $5,861,405.84
Scenario 3: $5,535,504.00
Obviously this is not a gnat's ass accurate number, especially because of SWA's trips-for-pay system, and the fact that APC's hourly rates aren't a direct correlation...but it's as close as I could get over my lunch break.
2) The AF decides the predator is for you, and you aren't current/don't have many hours when you get out, whether airlines are hiring or not.
hold your cards close to your chest and not show them to anyone you cannot absolutely trust
Anyone heard of giving any consideration for Predator time as PICish (you're breaking things with missiles fired off an airframe, which is kind of responsible) as long as you're also current?
if they accept Predator time as "real", then all the hours I spent playing "Top Gun" on the Nintendo should count, too, right?
no way will that time count for anything.
I wish I could have gotten out earlier, but it was a bad time ('01). I still think if you leave for a place like SWA, FedEx, or UPS by year 16 or so you'll come out ahead in the long run.
In what way? Certainly not financially...if you don't make more money by age 65 as the guy that gets out at 10, then how will you make more by leaving 6 years later?
Remember that the military guy's income also doesn't include the tax free, CZTE, hostile fire, etc that he'll get on his one or more deployments/remotes during that time.
Yes, there is slop on both sides financially...
The lesson is, though, when I first saw the "airline comparison" spreadsheet in 1999, there was just NO comparison...you made so much more money at the airlines that it was ridiculous. You'd have to be dumb to stay until 20.
Now, that is just not the case AT ALL. The decision is significantly more difficult today.
It may be the wave of the future in the USAF, but it won't give you one
FWIW--Avoid the Predator at all costs, no matter what your aspirations.
A guy who leaves (especially at the 10 year point) gets to the high career earnings much faster. He hit's the 12 year point where most airline scales max out and he's making (in SWA's case) $250K/ year. So, while Joe Blow LTC is making $150 (if he was on the 20 year bonus) and living in a place with high BAH he is making 100K less a year. Times that by the 10 years longer (since he got out 10 years earlier) and there you have a cool million. There is slop, but if you could leave for SWA at the 10 year point now (and don't forget there's only a 5 year bonus) then it is a complete no brainer. I figure it's break even at the 16 year point. Not to mention, the bs factor is significantly less at SWA.
I have a tough time with this one. A third year FDX widebody F/O at $130/hr nets less every two weeks than an AD O-4 WITHOUT the bonus.
MudEagle...
Retirement pay increases every year based on CPI. You may want to look at your numbers.
Used to be, pre-9/11, that there was no contest. The relative wealth gained by leaving the military up to year 17 was SIGNIFICANTLY more than staying until retirement. I think it was to the tune of about $2 mil.
Just hit second year pay at SWA. I don't bust my a$$ and easily clear more more now than O-4 pay with the bonus...and it will continue to rise significantly each year (no retirement though). BUT, airline flying is too damn boring and the money doesn't make it worth it IMO.
Hold out for 20, then try the the airline gig. Age 65 just changed everything.
My advice...an AF job you don't like (flying or non-flying) is better than the airlines...for some!
Regardless...best of luck to all!!!
I think you're quite a bit off here. I'm an O-5 with bonus and on a military leave of absence from NWA. I have several friends at SWA and UPS whom I've compared take home with. Right now, I can assure you my take home is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than the 4 year SWA FO and 3 year UPS FO (this is without taking the 25K/yr into account). Hopefully I can jump back to NWA after the mil retirement and have the best of both worlds. A lot can happen over the course of the next few years so I'll stick with the sure thing for now.
Still Flying!
Schwanker