ABX says NO THANK YOU to ASTAR

[HeavyjetDC8]

shooter quote post # 26: well, how did you figure a merger would fix the ANA problems if they can't be fixed now? Did you think the ANA flying would go away? Did you figure the ASTAR guys would bid it? Just asking, not flaming.

A fair question, no flames sighted: extinguisher not reached for.

I have assumed that DHL through an Astar /ABX merger would have DHL concentrating upon flying their freight to reach their customer by 10.30 am ( core business) as the top priority without being sidetracked into a hybrid ACMI/ flight crew leasing abortion in secondary Asian markets.

It would seem that Joe has his head fully inserted where the sun doesn't shine and believes himself to have both a game plan and a future. I'm afraid that on both counts he is wrong.

So shooter; without a merger, what's your vision of the future? I do agree that the DHL Nazis have once again criminally goosed stepped and screwed it up - but do you honestly see salvation with ABX operating as a flight crew leasing/ ACMI hybrid with the flight crew in revolt to the point where they'll kill the company before accepting a domicile in the land of the rising sun?

Sometimes an undesirable option is the only option. At least it's a workable option.

 

[HeavyjetDC8]

ABXbooger: we were offered 20 DC10s in the mid 90s but didn't take them for $100m because it wasn't understood as to how we could efficiently load / unload using C containers. The answer of course was to fit a cargo door and dump the C container; and it's the C container mentality which has killed ABX as a stand alone freight company.

 

[ABXbooger]

Hey Cargo, funny thing is we did the same thing DHL did here, we used belly freight etc.

It is just fact, look at pre-buyout numbers for ABF. We were carrying anywhere from 15-18% of the freight in the US ( based on whose numbers you believe). DHL has come in and gone very seriously backwards, so please don't ask how we ever did it, truth and fact is Airborne Express did it better than DHL has up to this point. And I know DHL is huge in the rest of the world, but let's face it, if you can't make it work here in the US, your hat will be handed to you. Look at where all of FDX and UPS's growth has come from in the last 5 years...international...that's DHL's bread and butter, right. Well I can tell you that DHL is going to start losing their "I'm so big overseas..." attitude really quick, DHL isn't going to be what it once was if they don't turn things around.

 

[ABXbooger]

I have heard that about the DC-10's. Frankly I am glad that didn't happen. We would be in a worse position than 767's without doors.

 

[HeavyjetDC8]

How right you are ABXbooger: such wisdom. FedEx would agree ref the DC10 - Not. Best get your resume up to date because truth be old, Joe and his all singing, all dancing, mighty 767 (flat panel junk) isn't going to save the bottom 50% ( conservative estimate) from furlough unless Joe gets bulldozed out of the way and a merger takes place. If ABX had dropped the C container in the 90s you'd have a future here. But ABX didn't, which is why you don't.

 

[Golden Falcon]

Found this name on my jumpseat protection list.http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?

 

[penguin22]

Found this name on my jumpseat protection list.http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?

Thanks!

 

[erichartmann]

How right you are ABXbooger: such wisdom. FedEx would agree ref the DC10 - Not. Best get your resume up to date because truth be old, Joe and his all singing, all dancing, mighty 767 (flat panel junk) isn't going to save the bottom 50% ( conservative estimate) from furlough unless Joe gets bulldozed out of the way and a merger takes place. If ABX had dropped the C container in the 90s you'd have a future here. But ABX didn't, which is why you don't.

Let's remember that Airborne and DHL talked 4 or 5 times before a deal was finally reached. The fact that Joe and the ABX BOD rejected an informal offer from Daz means nothing. It also means nothing that Daz has said he is withdrawing the offer and will now persue other avenues. It's just business. If DHL/DP really wants Daz to buy ABX there will be some manuvering and another approach. Perhaps Daz will now buy some of ABX's stock on the open market. After all, with the whole market dropping ABX's per share price is now less than Daz's offer. Maybe Daz will sweeten the offer. Perhaps DHL will tell Joe they plan to radically reduce the number of aircraft on the ACMI fairly quickly, seeking to futher force the share price down. Maybe all of those things. Maybe nothing.

This business (flying airplanes for anybody) is anything but stable. For years the cliche was you had to have been furloughed at least once before you could consider yourself a "real" airline pilot. After deregulation in 1978 that changed to you had to ride one into bankruptcy at least once.

Freight is now a mature industry, at least in the US. This means we are now subject to the swings of the economy. This is even more true of the ACMI freight carriers, as they tend to have relatively few customers.

As an ACMI carrier ABX may be in trouble. Maybe not. Joe and ABX BOD appear to have a plan to replace most or all of the "C" container aircraft over the next few years. Joe will not be terribly upset if this results in some furloughs among the crews if the company survives. Again, just business. It depends on how the ANA deal works out and what other moves Joe has up his sleeve. He has publically claimed there is more business out there than we have aircraft to service.

DHL buying back into Astar may be good for the Astar folks. Maybe not. Depends on how DHL/DP does. I think we can say with some certainty that DHL/DP face a serious challange from Fedex and UPS. So far they have not inspired me with their moves.

One thing we can be certain of is there will be changes for all of us. I very much doubt all the cards have been played or are even on the table.

 

[hvydriver]

:laugh: too true. They burn through money like they were printing it.

After just 4 years of DHL exposure, I don't see how you guys put up with their "master minds".

Well Shooter, I personally find that drinking helps a lot......

 

[Golden Falcon]

Sorry..the link was no good....was in reference to a recent promotion in the DHL flt ops hierarchy...and the fellow's name turned up on the list...EAL'89...must have been a "crawl-back"....enjoy