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AirTran expected to report "record" profit

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I'm really curious where that 5-6% decline in non-fuel CASM is coming from, especially since we haven't taken any concessions and the 2nd quarter comes to a close in about 12 days...

I agree though, record profits and a concessionary contract don't go together. Still waiting for the voting to begin or ANY word from the NPA... *crickets chirping*... anyone?
 
Heres your earnings estimate from the company...

http://investor.airtran.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=64267&p=irol-estimates

Looks like 43 million for Q2, 21 for Q3 and 15 for Q4...... Just a reminder.. AAI was forecasting a loss of around 8 million for Q1 before they beat the estimates and posted a Q1 profit of just under 3 million.. These estimates were updated on 6/12/07... Looks like just under 80 million for 2007 and and estimated profit of 104 million in 2008....... This is why we shouldn't be taking a consesionary contract.... I'm fine with managment getting thier bonuses, BUT, give some crumbs to me as well...

BTW.. The mean recomendation is 1.8.... That is the equivelant of a "buy" rating... Jetblue has a 2.7 mean recomendation (hold), SWA 2.6 (hold), UAL has a 2.3 recomendation, DAL 2.6, AMR 2.1, Alaska 2.2..... So, in other words investors think prety highly of AAI stock... This is on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being the best..
 
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And our BoD is so stupid as to buy the "we'll shut this airline down if pilots strike" BS.

In 2001 this place was PoS and we turned a TA down and got better deal later. They didn't shut down what was then crappy airline with a few markets and old jets.

And you telling me that now they will shut down this money maker? Shareholders will not only FIRE Joe, they will sue entire AAI BoD. More reasons to recall every NPA BoD member who believes company's bluff. That just shows total incompetence.

I was just talking to BoD member another day and he said that, bottom line is, he disagrees with me about TA being crap. That means he disagrees with almost every AirTran pilot. I though about it for a couple of days and here’s what makes me very angry. Hey! You are not elected to BoD to think in you own twisted ways, you rebel! You are here to think the way we think. That is why we voted for your A$$, because you represented our views during election time. And if you changed you mind over the years and no longer able to back up pilot's wishes, then you MUST resign. BoD is not about freedom of thought, it's about representing majority, and therefore thinking like them as well.
Hey, BoD members, it's your JOB to do what we (majority) want. Don't like it - resign!
 
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Fly-By-Cable said:
I was just talking to BoD member another day and he said that, bottom line is, he disagrees with me about TA being crap. That means he disagrees with almost every AirTran pilot. I though about it for a couple of days and here’s what makes me very angry. Hey! You are not elected to BoD to think in you own twisted ways, you rebel! You are here to think the way we think. That is why we voted for your A$$, because you represented our views during election time. And if you changed you mind over the years and no longer able to back up pilot's wishes, then you MUST resign. BoD is not about freedom of thought, it's about representing majority, and therefore thinking like them as well.

 Hey, BoD members, it's your JOB to do what we (majority) want. Don't like it - resign!
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BINGO!

That's why so many volunteers quit out of disgust or are simply beat into submission. You get involved in Association work because you want to help the pilots, then you realize the guys at the top, unless they're flying the line every day, have a tendency to lose touch with their pilots, and you eventually realize you can't change things by yourself.

At my last company, the best LEC leaders were the ones who were out there every day on the line and had the b*lls to stand up to the MEC leaders who were on full-time buyout and thought they knew "better" than the pilots and say, "Kiss My Dumb A*s, that's NOT what the pilots want."

What's that line from the last scene in Roadhouse? "This is OUR airline,,, and don't YOU forget it."

That's why I say, "Either reform, resign, or we'll help you find your way back to the line."
 
Lear70 said:
BINGO!

That's why so many volunteers quit out of disgust or are simply beat into submission. You get involved in Association work because you want to help the pilots, then you realize the guys at the top, unless they're flying the line every day, have a tendency to lose touch with their pilots, and you eventually realize you can't change things by yourself.

At my last company, the best LEC leaders were the ones who were out there every day on the line and had the b*lls to stand up to the MEC leaders who were on full-time buyout and thought they knew "better" than the pilots and say, "Kiss My Dumb A*s, that's NOT what the pilots want."

What's that line from the last scene in Roadhouse? "This is OUR airline,,, and don't YOU forget it."

That's why I say, "Either reform, resign, or we'll help you find your way back to the line."
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Why the hell would they agree to a pay cut/qol loss when the company is making money hand over fist. I think that signing something like this would be a complete failure of the pilot group. Hope you guys vote this POS down and get pay raises!!
 
Latest blast email FINALLY came out from the NPA.

"...voting to begin NO LATER than June 27th..." and will run for 21 days.

Yeah, still another 30+ days until we get to bury this thing and start over. :rolleyes:
 
Quote from Lear70:

"I'm really curious where that 5-6% decline in non-fuel CASM is coming from, especially since we haven't taken any concessions and the 2nd quarter comes to a close in about 12 days..."

You have to remember that we have operated the entire Q2 2007 with all 5 runways open in the ATL. For Q2 2006, we only had the 5th runway oepn for June only. I'll bet the 5 runway configuration has cut my overblocking down by 75% or more. I can't even remember the last time I held for ATL. A couple of reasons why our non-fuel costs are still dropping significantly:

1) System runs ontime alot more often with the 5 runway configuration causing alot less overblocking for pilots and FA's, alot less recrewing, alot less ramp overtime when ATL's last departures used to leave at 3 AM, etc.

2) Alot of new employees at low end payscales dragging average costs down.

3) The addition of 737 aircraft which have a lower non-fuel cost than the 717.


Now if we can just find a way to get oil back below $60 a barrel as we buy about 400 million gallons a year (just a 10 cent rise in price per gallon causes an additional $40 million in cost) or find a way to increase ticket prices without driving away the already overextended American consumer, we can make some serious money and get our stock price back up near 20.
 
gt1900 said:
Heres your earnings estimate from the company...

http://investor.airtran.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=64267&p=irol-estimates

Looks like 43 million for Q2, 21 for Q3 and 15 for Q4...... Just a reminder.. AAI was forecasting a loss of around 8 million for Q1 before they beat the estimates and posted a Q1 profit of just under 3 million.. These estimates were updated on 6/12/07... Looks like just under 80 million for 2007 and and estimated profit of 104 million in 2008....... This is why we shouldn't be taking a consesionary contract.... I'm fine with managment getting thier bonuses, BUT, give some crumbs to me as well...
Click to expand...

The sad part is they are always updating the earnings page on AirTran website. But I fly with guys who dont even now its there, they have no clue how well this CO. doing. The union should of got these numbers out to the pilot group so we would know were we stand. But maybe they didnt know ether.:eek:
 
Ride... Your right, they are always updating the earnings... However, for Q2-3-4 the earnings estimate has stayed pretty constant.. I don't believe the estimates for those quarters has changed much since Q1.............

Citation.... You better ger used to AAI lowball tactics.. Those tactics are the same reason AAI will have a 42 million dollar profit for Q2.. The same reason we payed very little for the 737's... Its not shamefull, its business.. If MEH had played the same way as AAI maybe they wouldn't be the target of a hostile takeover.. Its the same reason AAI is getting 2 more gates in the international concourse at MCO for $500,000 less a year than before. Don't take it personally.. Its business, and if they keep doing the things they are doing AAI "might" be around in 30 years. If they fold and give the pilots an industry leading contract, well, you can plan on a new job in 10 years....
 
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gt1900 said:
Ride... Your right, they are always updating the earnings... However, for Q2-3-4 the earnings estimate has stayed pretty constant.. I don't believe the estimates for those quarters has changed much since Q1..
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I completly agree with you. Its just that when I fly with somebody and tell them we going to have the most profitable quarter ever and they are surprise, and then they ask were did you get that info?
 
gt1900 said:
Don't take it personally.. Its business, and if they keep doing the things they are doing AAI "might" be around in 30 years. If they fold and give the pilots an industry leading contract, well, you can plan on a new job in 10 years....
Click to expand...

Is this typical of the mentality around there?
 
gt1900 said:
If they fold and give the pilots an industry leading contract, well, you can plan on a new job in 10 years....
Click to expand...


Someone has been filling your head with a bunch of dog-doo. You must be on the 717 and listening to some old scab trying to convince you what a great thing you have here . . . . because it protects the interests of the old scabs to keep the junior guys (the majority) working for crap wages; it leaves more in the pot for them. Haven't you figured that out yet?

Do you realize that pilot CASM at AirTran is a very small part of our total CASM? Any raise we leave on the table will be promptly cashed out in management bonuses.

If this airline is around in 30 years, it will be due to the efforts of the pilot group, not the expense of it.

Something else to keep in mind- if they replace the 717's with EMB 195's under the rates in this TA, even a 7 or 8 year CA here will be either a 737 reserve 'ho or making a whopping $95./hr as an EMB CA.

If my choice was to make max dollars here for 10 years, or 20 years at a 40% cut as an EMB pilot, give me the 10 years at max pay, because 20 years at $95./hr isn't worth it.
 
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Not trying to be nosey, but does anyone else get the feeling they're delaying the vote on this, this...what the he11 do you call something like that?...because they think the delay will work in their favor? IOW, do you think they believe everyone will simmer down and be more pliable?
 
We need to get the word out about the earnings. Keep hammering home all the concessionary aspects of this junk TA.
There is no reason for the company to be axing for concessions right now. We aren't trying to break the bank - just want to be treated fairly and receive some recognition/reward for our contributions to the success of this place.
 
Phaedrus said:
Not trying to be nosey, but does anyone else get the feeling they're delaying the vote on this, this...what the he11 do you call something like that?...because they think the delay will work in their favor? IOW, do you think they believe everyone will simmer down and be more pliable?
Click to expand...


That's exactly what I was thinking. IF this was such a great deal, it would have already been out to vote. They need time to set up the smoke and mirrors. The question is WHY the union is trying so hard to endorse this pig. As long as they're setting up the polls, they should include a recall vote with it. Then we can hit two birds with one stone.
 
Anbody thought about setting up one of those Flight info polls for the TA? I is to stupid to figure that out. Unscientific yes, but would be interesting!
 
Is it just me or does anyone else think that SK took the BOD and the N/C in a back room and made them his bitch. That might begin to explain the extreme amount of cooperation that they have been giving the company for the last year.
 
GT1900, I thought I'd give you the evening to explain what you meant, but when you do, here's some points to ponder:

The NPA says this T.A. will cost the company approximately $8 Million over its ENTIRE DURATION. That figure doesn't completely take into account the work rule givebacks from the loss of door-close AND core block combined after the new credit times are instituted (we'll be overblocking, on average, 50% of the time). Additionally, it only takes into account the cities we currently fly, not the city pairings we open over the next 4 years.

But, for argument's sake, let's say that number is correct. We're giving them a contract that costs $8 Million over 4 years and the company will post profits this year of anywhere from 8 to 10 TIMES THIS AMOUNT!

Even if they didn't make even MORE money each year as they acquire more aircraft and routes (which they will), we're giving them a contract that is approximately 3% of their total PROFIT (not revenue, PROFIT), over the next 4 years, while at the same time screwing our new-hires, screwing our retirees, screwing our reserves, and gaining very little for everyone else.

Somehow I think we can do better than 3% without "breaking the bank"...

You WERE saying you were voting NO just last week. I hope that hasn't changed, because I've been to the road shows, and there's NOTHING in this T.A. that makes it worth voting YES for.
 
Phaedrus said:
Not trying to be nosey, but does anyone else get the feeling they're delaying the vote on this, this...what the he11 do you call something like that?...because they think the delay will work in their favor? IOW, do you think they believe everyone will simmer down and be more pliable?
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That's EXACTLY what they're doing.

The more time that goes by, the less angry and militant they believe the pilot group will become; that's straight out of the ALPA concessionary contract playbook and, for the most part, they're right.

Without someone to keep everyone energized and motivated towards a better contract, it will dillute the NO vote we need so desperately to be high. I'm wondering, short of a recall effort starting NOW, what would keep the average line pilot's eye on the ball?

Polls here are never very scientific, simply because the people on here are, in most cases, the vocal minority. Even those that aren't won't chime in and say they support it, even if this board is anonymous, simply because they'd get blasted and we'd remember who they were and they'd always have to be on guard to STAY anonymous.

Just last week when one of the guys who WAS in favor of it spoke up, he got promptly pummeled and hasn't posted since.

So, any ideas how to keep everyone fired up for a full MONTH?
 
j41driver said:
Been in ATL too long....
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I love listening to some of the F/A axing the pax to fasten their seatbelt. Nothing drives me more crazy than that. I wish I could correct them but I probably wouldn't have a job right now. I guess living in Atlanta you'll have to get used to it.
 
SkiFishFly said:
I blame the company for thinking so little of us.
I blame our NC and BOD for being complete idiots.
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But you're missing the point. When a group of employees decides to organize, you only get from the company what you can negotiate. That's the whole freaking reason you organized.

You think because the company may post record profits they're gonna just "share" it with those that decided to have representation? HA. Doesn't work that way.


That's the reason it's so critical to have an MEC that speaks for the majority. This has nothing to do, IMO, with the company.
 
ultrarunner said:
But you're missing the point. When a group of employees decides to organize, you only get from the company what you can negotiate. That's the whole freaking reason you organized.

You think because the company may post record profits they're gonna just "share" it with those that decided to have representation? HA. Doesn't work that way.
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Only insofar as this management team isn't Herb in Dallas...

They *COULD* be that way, instill good will toward the pilot group, and maybe we could all work TOGETHER towards a future instead of going down the Legacy Airline path of management/labor relations (and we see how that worked out for most of the Legacies).

They *COULD* have done the right thing; they chose not to. A RESPONSIBLE management team would have understood there's a balance to make the employees happy while not bankrupting the company. Now we have to not only fly our planes, but fight the very company we're working for AND fight our own union leadership, and that simply sucks.

That's the reason it's so critical to have an MEC that speaks for the majority. This has nothing to do, IMO, with the company.
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You're right about the first part... The NPA holds the lion's share of the blame in this POS T.A.

However, I believe the company was a willing accomplice in our BOD's direction and, as they say, "the friend of my enemy is still my enemy."
 

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