What do you think will happen to ASA?

[wms]

They paid 425M for assets worth at least that much.

Who's going to buy the -200s? Bombardier is buying them back as fast as they can get them. They are being refurbished and sold to airlines in China.

JA is interested in growing his business. Skywest Airlines is doing great. He's never had any love or any use for ASA. I do believe he bought us for our assets as a favor to Delta to "take us off their hands" before they lost us in bk.

It wasn't a favor to DAL, it was an ultimatum. Buy ASA or lose the DAL flying you have. We've been a cash cow for him and at the end of our third year he'll have gotten back his investment. He's not going to give up 100+ million a year to turn a quick buck and get rid of a headache. That would mean he under-estimated the challenges involved with buying ASA. Businessmen are too proud to bail when things get tough.

 

[John Pennekamp]

It wasn't a favor to DAL, it was an ultimatum. Buy ASA or lose the DAL flying you have. We've been a cash cow for him and at the end of our third year he'll have gotten back his investment. He's not going to give up 100+ million a year to turn a quick buck and get rid of a headache. That would mean he under-estimated the challenges involved with buying ASA. Businessmen are too proud to bail when things get tough.

Please back up your statement with facts for it to be taken seriously. There is absolutely no evidence to back up your highlighted comment.

Your own post contradicts itself. If JA was forced to buy ASA, then why would he have "under estimated" anything (implying the buyout was a choice) and why would his pride suffer for bailing out on something he (according to you) was forced to buy in the first place?

As said previously, all Skywest Inc would lose is "lost opportunity" by liquidating us. That's a paperwork excercize. They could easily recover their initial investment. And they will if our present course continues.

 

[VeeOne]

It wasn't a favor to DAL, it was an ultimatum. Buy ASA or lose the DAL flying you have. We've been a cash cow for him and at the end of our third year he'll have gotten back his investment. He's not going to give up 100+ million a year to turn a quick buck and get rid of a headache. That would mean he under-estimated the challenges involved with buying ASA. Businessmen are too proud to bail when things get tough.

If JA liquidated ASA, someone would benafit from the void we left behind. The Regional Air Line Association has even stated that the only "bulk growth" would be at the expense of another regional (we all thought Comair). If we were shut down, JA would recoupe his 425 mil through our assetts, and could even pick up a large % of the DAL flying through another RFP. He gets his money one way or the other. Personally I would rather be a part of his plan.

Businessmen don't guage themselves by pride content. It's all about the money- nothing more, nothing less. Money is the ultimate guage of success in this business. Busting a union, growing his own side of the fense, and retaining profitability/increasing profitability to come out stronger would be the ultimate for him. Unfortunately we are giving him an excuse to proceed with his backup plan if we continue to push our issues and price ourselves out of the market.

The truth is that if we give ourselves a reason to require scope, it's all over anyway. JA is willing to play ball with ALPA, but only to a point- then all bets are off and he will start to play his own game.

 

[JoeMerchant]

They paid 425m for assets that do them no good if they're not utilized. JA can still make more money with them over time in revenue than in a one-time fire sale. Besides, who's gonna buy 150 -200s for a price high enough to cover the lost revenue? JA's not interested in shrinking. Like any businessman he's interested in growing his business

wms,

What makes you think the assets can't be utilized without you? Have you seen the Skywest 900s in ATL? Those would have been ASA assets, but instead they are being utilized without you while you follow ALPA off the cliff.... you are replaceable........

 

[JoeMerchant]

If JA liquidated ASA, someone would benafit from the void we left behind. The Regional Air Line Association has even stated that the only "bulk growth" would be at the expense of another regional (we all thought Comair). If we were shut down, JA would recoupe his 425 mil through our assetts, and could even pick up a large % of the DAL flying through another RFP. He gets his money one way or the other. Personally I would rather be a part of his plan.

Businessmen don't guage themselves by pride content. It's all about the money- nothing more, nothing less. Money is the ultimate guage of success in this business. Busting a union, growing his own side of the fense, and retaining profitability/increasing profitability to come out stronger would be the ultimate for him. Unfortunately we are giving him an excuse to proceed with his backup plan if we continue to push our issues and price ourselves out of the market.

The truth is that if we give ourselves a reason to require scope, it's all over anyway. JA is willing to play ball with ALPA, but only to a point- then all bets are off and he will start to play his own game.

Very well said VeeOne.... I have been saying this since Skywest bought us and I am glad that others see this also.....

 

[Speedtape]

Very well said VeeOne.... I have been saying this since Skywest bought us and I am glad that others see this also.....

So, do you need scope or not? Don't give circular reasoning in your answer, please! Remember, "good scope is inclusive; bad scope is exclusive!"

 

[av8er2]

If they shut down ASA how many of the ASA pilots would immediately apply to SW? I think a lot would because there would be fast upgrades and a lot that would not want to move. I think over 50% of ASA pilots would apply the same day just to keep a job.

Many are at ASA for time and to upgrade. Massive openings would interest a lot of ASA pilots.

I have heard rumors that Freedom and another airline have been awarded 900 and E170 flying in ATL that will be in place around Sept. Anyone else heard this?

ASA is slowly losing flying and they don't even know it. The 80% only counts if ASA meets certain goals. I don't think ASA is meeting those goals.

Most of the signs don't indicate a good future for ASA.

 

[Speedtape]

If they shut down ASA how many of the ASA pilots would immediately apply to SW? I think a lot would because there would be fast upgrades and a lot that would not want to move. I think over 50% of ASA pilots would apply the same day just to keep a job.

Many are at ASA for time and to upgrade. Massive openings would interest a lot of ASA pilots.

I have heard rumors that Freedom and another airline have been awarded 900 and E170 flying in ATL that will be in place around Sept. Anyone else heard this?

ASA is slowly losing flying and they don't even know it. The 80% only counts if ASA meets certain goals. I don't think ASA is meeting those goals.

Most of the signs don't indicate a good future for ASA.

You must not be keeping up. We are still adding new flights and new destinations. But, not on the ATR.

And, do you think they can close the doors, walk across the corporate street, and start flying the next day? Due to attrition, both companies can barely fly their respective schedules now. According to a friend at SW, pilots are being drafted down to below 10 days off. Both training departments are backed up and losing pilots also. Do some research!

 

[JoeMerchant]

So, do you need scope or not? Don't give circular reasoning in your answer, please! Remember, "good scope is inclusive; bad scope is exclusive!"

Speedtape,

It is a circular argument.... you only need scope if you cost more than the competition.... We either need to eliminate competition within a brand/holding company, or we need to compete... It is really that simple.... Which would you prefer?

 

[Speedtape]

Speedtape,

It is a circular argument.... you only need scope if you cost more than the competition.... We either need to eliminate competition within a brand/holding company, or we need to compete... It is really that simple.... Which would you prefer?

I would prefer mine with lettuce and tomato, HEINZ 57 and french fried potatoes! and don't leave out the cold glass of ????

 

[John Pennekamp]

And, do you think they can close the doors, walk across the corporate street, and start flying the next day? Due to attrition, both companies can barely fly their respective schedules now. According to a friend at SW, pilots are being drafted down to below 10 days off. Both training departments are backed up and losing pilots also. Do some research!

The simple solution to that: JA gives Delta a 3 month coutdown to ASA's funeral. Delta RFPs our flying to a new carrier (like XJet) who has parked planes. Life goes on.

 

[shamrock]

Buuuuuuuuuuuump!

Just trying to make the whole first page ASA related so HelloDooshman doesn't have to look too far.

Allllmost there!

 

[waterskier]

I am with most of the guys here, and ready to get this thing done... I DO NOT plan of staying here for ever, so as long as we are making some progress (which we have already done on many of the TAed sections, I am happy to get this bad boy wraped up....

1. TAed sections
2. Skywest rates (I know that would be a pay cut for some, but would decrease need for scope, and would be a raise for the majority)
3. Signing bonus based on DOE for our pain and suffering over the last couple of years...

Every day without a new contract is one more I have to experience with the old crapier one.... Has anyone realized that what is on the table now is almost exactly what we wanted when we started this whole thing 4+ yrs ago?... Leave it to ALPA to keep pitching up.... even after you reach LD/Max... I think we are on the back side of the power curve now...

 

[waterskier]

.....

 

[Medeco]

You are ALPA! Dork.

Did you show up at the LEC meeting and voice your opinion that your fine with things as they are TA'd now with Zero COLA and NO SECTION 1?

Medeco

 

[USCtrojan]

Talk about jumpin' to conclusions......

Wow, after going through this exhausting thread, I cannot believe the sentiments of some of our pilots. You guys are forgetting 2 VERY IMPORTANT FACTS. These facts are aimed at the doom and gloomers.....

#1) Massive Pilot Shortage. Even if Jerry wanted to transfer all airplanes to himself, where would he find the pilots to do so? Mesa is the front line airline that's feeling the pinch hard right now. Expect it to get worse and trickle down to even Skywest.

#2) You don't chop down a money tree. ASA again had the highest profit margin in the industry....AGAIN. As much as I hated John and George, you have to hand it to them. They certainly built a money tree business that Delta keeps trying to screw up. ASA and Skywest made what last year combined (I'm just spitballin' here) around 400 million? I know what Scott, Charlie and Brian will tell you, that it's "really not that much" but come on. That's a lot of dough. I agree with some that say ASA will go away, just because it would be absorbed. I was told a figure of 15% to save by getting rid of all the redundancy at ASA. Take $400 mil x that by 15% you get 60 million in savings. I'm no Warren Buffet, but that's a LOT OF JACK. ASA is going nowhere. It's a money tree. You don't chop down a money tree. I believe ASA management and Skywest will sell doom and gloom just to speed up attrition. How much money do you save by replacing a 6 year FO with a new hire? Or Captain in a similar scenario? Things are changing fast. The pendulum is a swingin'. I can't believe that so many believe a money tree would be chopped down.....Makes no sense.

Trojan

 

[SiuDude]

We could already be in a cooling off period. Check out this press release from the Polar Cargo negotioations:

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]WASHINGTON, D.C.---The Air Line Pilots Association, International (ALPA), today made public for the first time that the cockpit crewmembers of Polar Air Cargo are 10 days into a 30-day cooling off period over stalled contract talks.
"It's become abundantly clear to us that the company just doesn't care whether or not we reach an agreement. In fact, during the eleventh-hour meetings held at the National Mediation Board in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday, Polar management did not even respond to the comprehensive proposal offered by our negotiating committee. This was our last, best chance of getting their attention to focus on our issues. We're not spoiling for a fight, but even the NMB has given up on the talks. After October 1, we will be released by the Board to pursue self-help measures," said Captain Dennis Brooks, chairman of the Polar Air Cargo crewmembers' Master Executive Council, a unit of ALPA.
Last July, ALPA allocated $2 million to the Polar crewmembers from the union's contingency fund, in order to provide a war chest. Negotiations for the New York- and Miami-based carrier had been ongoing since April 1997. Citing the lack of progress, the crewmembers filed for mediation with the National Mediation Board in April 1998. After 15 months of mediated talks, only non-economic issues were settled, with 13 key sections of the contract still open and unresolved.
News of the imposition of the 30-day cooling off period was withheld by mutual agreement to a news blackout. That agreement expired as of today.
"We've tried everything imaginable to get the company to deal with our issues. We even agreed to give them 10 days before we went public with this announcement, in the vain hope that they would come to their senses. We've gone as far as we can possibly go on our own, and the company still refuses to deal with some very major issues in our working conditions, especially the lack of a real pension plan and the need for better scheduling practices," Brooks said. "Our crewmembers routinely are subjected to the most outrageous schedules, including being on duty continuously for more than 30 hours, and being away from home and family for 25 days."
"We're not announcing, or even predicting a strike, but given the company's contemptuous treatment of us, I think our members have just about run out of patience," Brooks said. The 30-day cooling off period expires at midnight the evening of Oct. 1. ALPA, the nation's oldest and largest union for cockpit crewmembers, represents 55,000 pilots at 53 airlines in the U.S. and Canada.
[/FONT]

 

[USCtrojan]

We could already be in a cooling off period. Check out this press release from the Polar Cargo negotioations:

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]WASHINGTON, D.C.---The Air Line Pilots Association, International (ALPA), today made public for the first time that the cockpit crewmembers of Polar Air Cargo are 10 days into a 30-day cooling off period over stalled contract talks.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]"It's become abundantly clear to us that the company just doesn't care whether or not we reach an agreement. In fact, during the eleventh-hour meetings held at the National Mediation Board in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday, Polar management did not even respond to the comprehensive proposal offered by our negotiating committee. This was our last, best chance of getting their attention to focus on our issues. We're not spoiling for a fight, but even the NMB has given up on the talks. After October 1, we will be released by the Board to pursue self-help measures," said Captain Dennis Brooks, chairman of the Polar Air Cargo crewmembers' Master Executive Council, a unit of ALPA.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]Last July, ALPA allocated $2 million to the Polar crewmembers from the union's contingency fund, in order to provide a war chest. Negotiations for the New York- and Miami-based carrier had been ongoing since April 1997. Citing the lack of progress, the crewmembers filed for mediation with the National Mediation Board in April 1998. After 15 months of mediated talks, only non-economic issues were settled, with 13 key sections of the contract still open and unresolved.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]News of the imposition of the 30-day cooling off period was withheld by mutual agreement to a news blackout. That agreement expired as of today.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]"We've tried everything imaginable to get the company to deal with our issues. We even agreed to give them 10 days before we went public with this announcement, in the vain hope that they would come to their senses. We've gone as far as we can possibly go on our own, and the company still refuses to deal with some very major issues in our working conditions, especially the lack of a real pension plan and the need for better scheduling practices," Brooks said. "Our crewmembers routinely are subjected to the most outrageous schedules, including being on duty continuously for more than 30 hours, and being away from home and family for 25 days."[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]"We're not announcing, or even predicting a strike, but given the company's contemptuous treatment of us, I think our members have just about run out of patience," Brooks said. The 30-day cooling off period expires at midnight the evening of Oct. 1. ALPA, the nation's oldest and largest union for cockpit crewmembers, represents 55,000 pilots at 53 airlines in the U.S. and Canada.[/FONT]

Awesome research SIUdude, thanx for the post!

Trojan

 

[~~~^~~~]

Not to be Chicken Little.... but ASA must have scope in this contract.

Just when we adjusted to the new game of return the old RJ for a new big RJ a new deal has been invented. The new deal will be sell an old RJ to someplace half way around the World and get a even older, but well cared for MD90. I have no idea if it will happen, but the rumor makes sense given what the owner needs.

In cruise a MD90 burns around 6,500lbs/hr., a little more than twice what a 200 does, while carrying 153 to 172 passengers. The MD90 can go coast to coast, or ATL/AGS. It is flexible and can use reasonably short runways.

Going head to head with AirTran, the MD90 is at least a contender until Boeing comes out with a 737 replacement, or Bombardier makes a really good C Series proposal.

Of course, it is easier to deploy a RJ and fill it. I'm not saying all the 50 seaters are going away, but there will probably be around 40 that leave the property. Some of these airplanes will be making an exit.

SkyWest has no union. Without a union they have no scope. ASA pilots should use ALPA and get their 1.95% worth by securing a deal that will provide for security and a future by locking the company in to using ASA pilots.

A smash and grab contract does not work. You need a well thought out, complete, section 1.