Pilot shortage, coming soon to an airline near you.

[hoover]

I think the next thing you will see is regionals aligning with Pt 141 flight schools for guaranteed jobs (instead of guaranteed interviews) once you graduate with CPL/ME.

 

[Bruno82]

Well AA pays 787 Captains $19 dollars a second.

 

[blueridge71]

Look at the big picture.

The fractionals are taking a ton of regional pilots and year 2 captain pay is equal to about year 7 captain pay at a regional. The majors are all recalling and/or hiring, taking more pilots out of the employment pool.

At the other end of the scale, VLJs are coming on line and will start taking some of the experienced CFIs and pilot mill grads who would normally go to the regionals. Meanwhile, regional contracts are getting worse and complaints are getting louder, so the airline profession is going to attract fewer people who do their homework on what they are getting into.

Put it all together and it spells trouble for the regionals. Skywest was, and may still be, having trouble getting enough new hires. ASA can't fill classes now, even with minimums at 600/100.

Normally at this point, the market would require a correction. Supply of qualified pilots is low, therefore the price for pilot labor should increase until a new equilibrium is set at a higher wage. However, collective bargaining agreements short-circuit the process. The same contracts that protected pilot wages as the industry tanked cause wage increases to occur more slowly as the industry rebounds.

 

[Tarzan]

I doubt the new hire stuff will change much. Most of these kids will do it for nothing. However, the regionals will need to retain their pilots. That's where you will start to see the carrot being dangled, at the mid seniority pilots.

 

[CopilotDoug]

It is all part of the 2007-hiring boom. World wide pilot shortage starts to spread to the US, just a predicted by the AW&ST about a year ago. Entry-level carriers have reduced their competitive hiring mins to Comm./MEL/Inst in order to fill classes. Cannot go any lower, the thing they will have to do is raise pay.

Thanks for trying, but you're wrong. The bar has been lowered, and it ain't going back up. Jobs are opening up because nobody wants these $hit working conditions for $hit pay with no stability and no chance of retirement. There was a great article in the business section of the Chicago Trib this past week. It focused on a former NWA pilot who left and went to Emirates. He highlighted all the benefits that Emirates provides him including, but not limited to free housing, a nice retirement, and a great paycheck. He's promoting Emirates, Cathay, and all the other forign airlines to American pilots. That's something you won't see at American companies

 

[pgcfii2002]

Great quote:

" FedEx pays an Airbus A380 captain with 10 years of experience $17,464 a month, according to WillFlyForFood.cc, a Web site that compares pilot pay."

I saw that too....good catch!!

 

[blueridge71]

I doubt the new hire stuff will change much. Most of these kids will do it for nothing. However, the regionals will need to retain their pilots. That's where you will start to see the carrot being dangled, at the mid seniority pilots.

That's just it. It seems that fewer kids are doing it for nothing already.

 

[pgcfii2002]

Fresh on the heels of hiring 610 pilots last year, SkyWest Airlines intends to hire another 700 this year to keep even with the regional carrier's snowballing growth.

Well at least we know where most Mesa pilots will go.............

 

[skyaddict]

When Air Inc. job fairs are *free* to the pilots (i.e. paid for entirely by the recruiters) the way that job fairs are for most other educated professionals, then we will know there is a U.S. pilot shortage.

 

[CX880]

They are going to have to raise the salaries. At least 40/ hour for first year and 80 for captain. Flight training is very expensive and on top of that you have a 19 dollar per hour job waiting for you at the end. No wonder nobody is going to flight schools anymore especially the last 2 years, there was a big drop in pro pilot training.

 

[bigbird]

There is a pilot shortage around the world and it will hit the US soon if not already. The regionals cannot fill classes. Just wait a year or two when the majors are each hiring 60 a month. Supply and demand for labor. Wages must come up to attract people to get into this field.

 

[plunger]

I think the drop in enrolllment in pro pilot training can also be attributed to changes in the student loan programs. In order to attend one of the puppy mills you either pay cash, or go through Sallie Mae or Keybank. These lenders finally wised up after a couple of schools closed up shop and split with the students money. I believe schools have to be title IV approved in order for these banks to lend money, which most aren't. I think a lot of the flight schools are starting to get the title IV status but it takes time. I went through Key bank a couple of years ago. I regret it everyday..

 

[ToiletDuck]

Thanks for trying, but you're wrong. The bar has been lowered, and it ain't going back up. Jobs are opening up because nobody wants these $hit working conditions for $hit pay with no stability and no chance of retirement. There was a great article in the business section of the Chicago Trib this past week. It focused on a former NWA pilot who left and went to Emirates. He highlighted all the benefits that Emirates provides him including, but not limited to free housing, a nice retirement, and a great paycheck. He's promoting Emirates, Cathay, and all the other forign airlines to American pilots. That's something you won't see at American companies

All airlines promised those things at one point.. They could crash too.

 

[time builder]

But everyone they hire has 1000/100, I am not sure what they mean by competitive, but they are hiring far below their 2500/500.

Like I said, 2500/500, I believe it from what I saw first hand. I wasn't the only 1000 hour guy they gave a hard time about a lack of experience.

 

[ToiletDuck]

I think the drop in enrolllment in pro pilot training can also be attributed to changes in the student loan programs.

I think it has to do with TBS not showing Top Gun almost every night at 7pm like it use too.