If the SkyWest pilots vote in ALPA, the company may not take away any of your pay or benefits, including performance rewards. During the time your MEC negotiates the first contract, you will have the exact same thing that is in your employee handbook now.
If you are not satisfied with what the MEC negotiates, then you vote no on the TA. It sounds like the SkyWest pilots make good money from the performance rewards and therefore a TA without that is almost destined to fail.
Your concern for cancellation pay is also unfounded. Cancellation pay is considered industry standard, and therefore it would be hard for the company to reach an agreement without it. Again, a TA without it would not be reached, and if one was, it would almost certainly fail as well.
Yes, ALPA is going through some hard times right now, but that is due to the environment that we are in. It is hard to not take pay cuts when your airline is losing millions a quarter, as most were just a few years ago. ALPA gives the pilot group a framework for negotiation with the company, and it makes the company actually negotiate if they want to reach an agreement, not just point out demands. ALPA cannot save a dying airline, nor does anybody expect it to. There is nothing that ALPA can do if Delta wants to liquidate Comair, other than to make sure their contract is followed to the letter until the last day. That is all that anybody can expect them to do, and to think that they could have somehow prevented what is happening now is ludicrous.
Now that the industry as a whole is recovering, the pilot groups that are up for contract negotiations should reach agreements with pay and benefit increases. SkyWest is in one of the best positions of any regional and their pilots should be paid accordingly. ALPA will not guarantee you a pay raise, but they will guarantee you a seat at the table to negotiate one. Without ALPA, the company has no incentive to give anybody pay raises because your pilot group cannot do anything about it collectively.
Us ASA pilots are watching you guys closely over on the other side. The SkyWest pilots voting in ALPA would tell us that you are willing to work with us to become one airline, and to stop the whipsaw. This is in everybody's benefit! A vote against ALPA means that you are content with the whipsaw and content that management is downgrading ASA pilots and tranferring our airplanes to you to fly them. Keep in mind that the whipsaw can go both ways and the SkyWest pilots could one day be losing airplanes and downgrading Captains while ASA hired 75 a month and upgrades quickly. With one pilot list this will not happen.
A merged ASA/SkyWest pilot group would also meet the criteria for inclusion at the head table of ALPA, Group A (over 4000 pilots). If you do not like the direction ALPA is taking with the regionals, this is your chance to change it. The combined pilot group would have as much clout in ALPA as the major airlines. Food for thought.
Finally, everything I said above could just as easily pertain to any other union as it does to ALPA. Is ALPA perfect? No, far from it. But it is the best thing going right now, and this is the time to vote in a union.