XJT Coming Soon!!! (note the T)

[Truckdriver]

This model didn't work for Midway or FlyI. I predict a big roll out with a lot of fanfare, followed by some belt tightening in a few months. Bankrupt by this summer will allow management void the pilot contract followed by liquidation, merger or outright sell by the end of the year. Not a good time to be at XJT.

Although I don't think this venture will be a big money maker for XJT, it will be less than 20% of their operation. They will still have 80% of their airplanes in CPA deals which are guaranteed a margin. The charter stuff will most likely make some money because of no competition. The branded flying will have to lose TONS of money for it to drag XJT down. I see it losing a little money which will offset some of the profits from the charter and CPA stuff. The only effect employees will see is decreased profit sharing. There will be no furloughs and new base openings for the XJT folks which is great. The stock price will most likely float between 5-10 bucks and not really do anything.

The big thing to watch is what XJT has going on when CAL can cut another 25% of the XJT flying from the CAL system. It appears they are going to arbitration this year over rates. In 2009 CAL can cut another 25% of the XJT fleet from the CAL system. Basically, XJT has two years to figure out what to do with 138 or so 50 seat jets.

 

[Truckdriver]

Indy's demise had nothing to do with RJs. They jumped in with their entire operation at once, added a new fleet of Airbii, concentrated their flying in someone else's hub, and lacked a common fleet type. None of which XJT is trying.

Exactly. The only common thread here is some branded flying using 50-seat jets. However, you do realize that the CASM on an RJ is more than triple that of an SWA 737 or a B6 320. I'm sure both SWA and B6 will be watching XJT routes out of ONT very closely. I think this operation will keep the airplanes flying for XJT, but it won't be a huge money maker or stock price driver. Time will tell, and I hope it works out well for all my old XJT co-workers. I know the ONT base and possibly SLC will make that place a much more desirable place to work as far as base options go. If I were just getting into the regional world, I'd go there.

 

[acarpe3448]

Any rumors on who the Major Airline partner is?

I hope it is Delta! It seems management is in the process of taking away flying from Comair. It would be great to have you all!

 

[catIIIc]

Expressjet will still have what, 75% of their revenue from Continental?

The sky ain't falling over there yet...

Until CAL figures out that their pax are flying on XJT instead of them to the cities they mutually serve. For example if PAX who fly ONT-OKC start to go non-stop on XJT instead of CAL through IAH, I doubt CAL would be to happy funding a competitor. I am pretty sure that CAL will be monitoring this info.

Good luck XJT, you guys are class act and deserve some success and I hope for the best for you. It is just a hard road you are starting down.

 

[Superpilot92]

For those that actually listened to the Conference call, Ream stated that the city markets are going to be ones in which there is no direct competition. It will range from coast to coast with Point to Point destinations. Completely uncharted waters. SWA is a concern but the markets we are going for are ones that wouldn't compete with SWA. Also southwest is still frantically searching for more airplanes to eat up market share against the Majors and Legacy's. I don't think they are going to have extra planes sitting around to through against us on Small markets. We shall see. Also This is initially going to be a small part of our business. CAL and XJT are on good terms even though at times it appears we aren't. This was not only mentioned in this call but in the CAL earnings call also. (Cal just added a new route for XJT to do out of EWR recently) The paint looks great and i think the big money makers are going to be the Remaining CPA with CAL and also the flying for the supposed DAL. While we test the waters with the XJET flying. Thinks are getting interesting here, it was also mentioned we may do code shares with the XJET flying which would be great also.

My only concern is that in time if this is a hit that one of the majors maybe even CAL buys us back if we prove profitable. Weirder things have happened. Just my 2 pennies.

 

[check6]

The big thing to watch is what XJT has going on when CAL can cut another 25% of the XJT flying from the CAL system. It appears they are going to arbitration this year over rates. In 2009 CAL can cut another 25% of the XJT fleet from the CAL system. Basically, XJT has two years to figure out what to do with 138 or so 50 seat jets.

Well it's a good thing they're hiring 400 more pilots this year.

 

[superrav]

Guys leave the business talk for management....Its hard to believe there are this many idiots and they're pilots....

 

[Truckdriver]

Guys leave the business talk for management....Its hard to believe there are this many idiots and they're pilots....

So you work for a company but you don't attempt to figure out how they are running the company?? Does it make us idiots to discuss the business part of the company that we work for? I think you would be the idiot for not being intelligent enough to jump into a business discussion about airlines. Must be that 4-year aviation technology degree that you have if you even have a degree.

 

[dav8or]

Thank God we've got such experts on this board. Seriously, if you took two seconds to compare our (XJT) situation and plan to that of Indy and Midway, you'd see that there really isn't a comparison.

So everyone got the pep talk. I remember the Indy guys getting all excited about brand flying too when it was announced. XJT may not be going "all in" but there is still condsiderable risk. Wait and see, management will show losses on this venture (even if only on paper) and you will be asked for give backs and if that doesn't work I'm sure they will follow the BK playbook. Time will tell, good luck.

 

[Superpilot92]

So everyone got the pep talk. I remember the Indy guys getting all excited about brand flying too when it was announced. XJT may not be going "all in" but there is still condsiderable risk. Wait and see, management will show losses on this venture (even if only on paper) and you will be asked for give backs and if that doesn't work I'm sure they will follow the BK playbook. Time will tell, good luck.

Its not very hard to see this isnt FLYI or even close to the same deal. But thanks for wishing the good luck!!

also Considerable risk=Aviation Career in general!!