Worldwide Losses to DOUBLE!

crj567

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The IATA has just stated that worldwide, airline losses will be about DOUBLE their previous forecast!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQSs9CGd9Auc

Asia and Europe are tanking like crazy, swine flu is not helping at all and things are not looking up! This era makes 9-11 look like a walk in the park!

-Looks like a GREAT time to put 45% of one's eggs in the INTL basket-eh?

-Cue Gen Lee and his "McRonald's" childishness, but folks-the whole industry is hanging on to the very edge of a cliff by its fingernails!

-This ain't good, and the decisions idiot airlines who were foolish enough to think the U.S. economy would tank and the INTL routes would be very profitable have not helped the situation at all!
 

Redmeat

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Here's another article:

"World's Airlines to Lose $9 billion in 2009"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124443373533493517.html


"The forecast, presented by the body representing some 230 airlines worldwide, is almost double the $4.7 billion loss estimated in March"

Didn't Genital Lee predict that the industry would be recovering this year?

:rolleyes:

September ain't gonna be pretty...
 

crj567

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Genital Lee also thought "Song" was gonna put JetBlue and SWA out of business. (Yeah, paint a lime-green sprematazoa down the side of a 757, and tickets will be sold hand-over-fist! Limitless Profits!!)

Genital Lee thought DAL putting nearly 45% of its flying into the INTL basket was a stroke of pure genius! (How's that working out, given the fact that the economy in Europe has fallen into a black hole?)

Genital Lee thinks the entire continent of Africa is a gold mine-just waiting for some American carrier to come and make money like the mint. (If you do not see there error in this logic-there is simply no way to help you.)

Genital Lee thinks all RJs will be replaced with 737s. (Wouldn't hold my breath-LBB is gonna have to keep watching the skies for 'big planes'.... Probably gonna be a while, guys.)

Gential Lee thinks that DAL was not hijacked by NWA. (Believe what you want-but that growing pain in your rear ain't from sitting on a thumbtack.)

-Beginning to see a pattern?
-I think there is something seriously wrong with Genital's crystal ball....
 

Heavy Set

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Genital Lee also thought "Song" was gonna put JetBlue and SWA out of business. (Yeah, paint a lime-green sprematazoa down the side of a 757, and tickets will be sold hand-over-fist! Limitless Profits!!)

Genital Lee thought DAL putting nearly 45% of its flying into the INTL basket was a stroke of pure genius! (How's that working out, given the fact that the economy in Europe has fallen into a black hole?)

Genital Lee thinks the entire continent of Africa is a gold mine-just waiting for some American carrier to come and make money like the mint. (If you do not see there error in this logic-there is simply no way to help you.)

Genital Lee thinks all RJs will be replaced with 737s. (Wouldn't hold my breath-LBB is gonna have to keep watching the skies for 'big planes'.... Probably gonna be a while, guys.)

Gential Lee thinks that DAL was not hijacked by NWA. (Believe what you want-but that growing pain in your rear ain't from sitting on a thumbtack.)

-Beginning to see a pattern?
-I think there is something seriously wrong with Genital's crystal ball....
Sounds like you really get a hard on thinking about Lee. Look where you are at before spouting off your blabber. He is entertaining on this board, you are annoying.
 

Heavy Set

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Here's another article:

"World's Airlines to Lose $9 billion in 2009"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124443373533493517.html


"The forecast, presented by the body representing some 230 airlines worldwide, is almost double the $4.7 billion loss estimated in March"

Didn't Genital Lee predict that the industry would be recovering this year?

:rolleyes:

September ain't gonna be pretty...

Did he really predict that? The whole industry? The forcast is for 230 airlines worldwide. Do you think any in Mexico are going to lose extra money this year due to swine flu? Don't you think airlines with less cash than Delta could be more at risk, and if they fail first could help Delta? From what I have read, Delta seems to have a pretty good amount of cash, that could help them through this rough time. And before Swine Flu and gas rising, many people were predicting a profitable year due to lower gas prices.
 

johnsonrod

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Here is a portion of Mike Boyd's Hotflash for June 8th on his website:



[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Here's what we can expect, most likely, for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2010:[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Reduced RJ Missions. This portion of the US airline fleet is the most vulnerable to a downturn. If oil prices keep in the $60+ range, plan on additional pull-downs of RJ missions, including some of the recently-restored or recently-implemented "long haul" hub feed missions - over roughly 600NM. In many cases, they're going to be toast.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Frequency Reductions. There will be continued capacity trimming, particularly on major carriers' "bar-bell" routes between their connecting hubs. Hub banks will be in some cases scaled back.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Earlier Retirement of Older Aircraft. Airlines still remain well-positioned to weather this storm. As noted last week, major US carriers have extensive flexibility to shed aircraft. They will get through this, but parking space in the desert may be in short supply early next year.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]International Systems Scrutinized. This has alreday been seen with the delay of several US-China route authorities. Now at risk: those routes operated with low seat-density, long-haul aircraft - i.e., 757s that have been specially configured for flying in what are "secondary" international markets. These are extremely vulnerable to market downturns because of high "seat loading" - each seat bears a high proportion of the revenue requirement, i.e., these operations need very strong revenues on a per ASM basis. If traffic to Turin, or Barcelona, or Lagos, or between PIT and Paris starts to weaken, red pencils will be very busy in airline scheduling departments. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Adjustments. Not Wholesale Service Cuts. Prepare for the news stories that airlines "are slashing unprofitable routes and getting out of cities where they can't make money." The fact is that analyses by Boyd Group International indicate that outside of some experimental markets, there will be very few - if any - airports completely cut by any one carrier. Reduced access, yes. [/FONT]​
  • [FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]No Opportunity For LCCs Or New Entrants. Every carrier - including those that may be receiving a stream of new airliners they couldn't defer - will be in big-time reverse capacity gear by late 2009. There won't be any market "opportunities" that will open for LCCs to jump into. It's important to understand that these airline capacity cuts are due to fundamental evaporation of demand. It's fewer people wanting to fly at all. That means start-ups like JetAmerica will have all the potential of the beer concession at a Baptist revival.[/FONT]​
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Forecast Revisions In The Works.[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida] As it stands today, the Airports:USA estimate for 2009 being down in the 9% range compared to 2008 still holds. However, the economic events noted above will have a negative effect on air travel demand that may cause the 4Q of 2009 to be much - very much - worse than expected. Schedule capacity pull-downs in November and December could be as high as 12% year over year. As a harbinger - take a look at May. It's clear that year-to-date capacity cuts are barely keeping pace with declining demand. With the job situation that we're seeing, that's not going to improve.[/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Any hope for a turnaround in 2010, as predicted by the FAA, is strictly out to lunch.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]_______________[/FONT]​
 

Lear70

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We've known for months that international travel was going to tank... always does when there's major economic problems and people feel the pinch in their wallets.

That's why leisure markets in the U.S. are somewhat holding their own this summer...

p.s. This report was mainly focused on international airlines, not on the domestic U.S. "discount" airlines, which are still forecasted to do just fine this year (record profits forecasted for some, actually).
 

johnsonrod

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We've known for months that international travel was going to tank... always does when there's major economic problems and people feel the pinch in their wallets.

That's why leisure markets in the U.S. are somewhat holding their own this summer...

p.s. This report was mainly focused on international airlines, not on the domestic U.S. "discount" airlines, which are still forecasted to do just fine this year (record profits forecasted for some, actually).
International travel during the Summer months is not tanking. A lot of airlines have pulled some service before starting it, and they have added smaller airplanes to some routes to allow for less seats total. That has still raised the prices on some tickets, and the rich and famous who used to fly corporate jets across the pond are probably taking 1st class on a 757. Overall, there are less flights to international cities this Summer compared to last year. This Fall I expect a large pulldown in international travel, though, but will rebound again next Spring.

Also, you say domestic airlines are scheduled to do fine this year, like Frontier I suppose. Well, oil is rising, and that isn't good for any LCC that did not hedge lately. Hedging can be dangerous when oil goes up or down, but it is going up again. Combine that with an overall lack of passengers total year over year, and that doesn't mean good things for some domestic carriers.
 
Last edited:

GogglesPisano

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enough
Genital Lee also thought "Song" was gonna put JetBlue and SWA out of business. (Yeah, paint a lime-green sprematazoa down the side of a 757, and tickets will be sold hand-over-fist! Limitless Profits!!)

Genital Lee thought DAL putting nearly 45% of its flying into the INTL basket was a stroke of pure genius! (How's that working out, given the fact that the economy in Europe has fallen into a black hole?)

Genital Lee thinks the entire continent of Africa is a gold mine-just waiting for some American carrier to come and make money like the mint. (If you do not see there error in this logic-there is simply no way to help you.)

Genital Lee thinks all RJs will be replaced with 737s. (Wouldn't hold my breath-LBB is gonna have to keep watching the skies for 'big planes'.... Probably gonna be a while, guys.)

Gential Lee thinks that DAL was not hijacked by NWA. (Believe what you want-but that growing pain in your rear ain't from sitting on a thumbtack.)

-Beginning to see a pattern?
-I think there is something seriously wrong with Genital's crystal ball....
Seek professional help. You are officially obsessed. Stalking is next, if it isn't happening already.
 

701EV

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a lot
Wait a minute last week Obama told the folks in California things were looking good.

Now today Obama said we need more stimulus?

Which is it

701EV
 

anewunion

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I don't know about you, But every flight I tried to non-rev on is Full..
 

michael707767

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I don't know about you, But every flight I tried to non-rev on is Full..
full planes are meaningless. I could fill planes all day everyday if the fares were low enough. Doesn't mean I would be making any money.
 

anewunion

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full planes are meaningless. I could fill planes all day everyday if the fares were low enough. Doesn't mean I would be making any money.
It's better then empty planes(Post 9/11). If you have a strong projected yield per flight segment(Not MCO,LAS,HNL) coupled with an Meaningful fuel hedge this would produce a formula that you could work with.

If you add up freight and ancillary revenues from bag surcharges,mail, pets, etc. You can add this revenue to already low labor contracts and very low debt obligations (due to Bankruptcy). This would achieve a very low single number profit margin.

So my point is... If you make 100 Bucks net profit from a buddy pass on a flight to LAX, It's better then a loss.
 
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