Will United Survive?

[WhiteCloud]

Re: UAL

I, too, would hate to see UAL go down. It's been a major part of the Denver economy. The new Denver International Airport was conceived with United very much in mind. United's training center has been around forever. I have no idea how much United itself is using it these days, but I recall that a lot of its sim time was brokered out to non-UAL users.

I don't think United per se will end. I'd bet that because of the bankruptcy it will reinvent itself as a LCC or something. Frontier has been giving it competition for a while.

Seems to me that the company must have some hope of survival. Otherwise why would they continue to operate and lose money? Is it that continuing to operate mitigates some of the loss (in the short term)? Ziggy1

 

[HA25]

Fox2 - If you read JetPilot's post and thought he was taking joy in an airline's demise, you certainly read more into it than I did. He was just pointing out an instance of Economic Darwinism at work, and certainly didn't appear to be rejoicing over it. Further, I can't see where his statement had anything to do with your other three points.

I think you might wanna take another look at what he wrote.

Minh

Hear Hear...

 

[bobbysamd]

UAL

Seems to me that the company must have some hope of survival. Otherwise why would they continue to operate and lose money? Is it that continuing to operate mitigates some of the loss (in the short term)? Ziggy1

They aren't simply going to fold their tents. They would hope to emerge from bankruptcy. Bankruptcy is simply a way for an business entity to get a fresh start. Recall what happened when Uncle Frank declared bankruptcy at Continental. It came back, but was different, which is my 2¢ opinion for United. Bankrupt companies don't always emerge, however.

The shareholders would incur tremendous financial losses and perhaps risk personal liability if United simply folded.

I second Snakum's comments about JetPilot500's post. He was just making an observation about current events.

 

[TWA Dude]

Re: UAL

"Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated."

UAL is hurtin' a plently but I think there's a lot of powerful forces that want it to stick around: Chicago and IL, Denver and CO. The Bush administration obviously doesn't care but local politicians do. I agree the industry as a whole needs a large carrier or several smaller ones to fail so that the rest can survive. TWA was literally hours away from liquidation several times yet it somehow managed to last until it was bought. It just shows to go you that anything could happen, and it probably isn't what you'd expect.

 

[hogdriver00]

Not their job

The Bush administration obviously doesn't care but local politicians do.

Why should the federal government care? It's not the taxpayers responsibility to bail out companies that develop poor business plans and loose money to the tune of 3.1 Billion in a year. The government is the only one that can do that.

If United goes TU then the survivors will prosper, become profitable, and eventually grow.

It all works out in the end so long as your not at UAL. My heart goes out to those folks.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

I tend to agree with HOGDRIVER. It is difficult to allow the government to continue to bail out unsuccessful carriers. Handouts have already been doled out to stabilize the industry. One example, Midway Airlines took the money, operated for two more months and then died-- what a waste of taxpayers' money. There are carriers still operating in the black-- Airtran, Southwest and JetBlue. It'd be a hard sell in Congress...

 

[WhiteCloud]

Re: Not their job

Why should the federal government care?

The feds sure put a lot of regs, licencing and tax requirements on Airlines because "they care". A big part of the US economy is tied to an effective transportion system. Ziggy1

 

[RocketRob]

Plan for separate budget carrier dropped
By Heather Draper, Rocky Mountain News
February 1, 2003

UAL Corp. has backed off its controversial plan to launch a low-cost carrier as a separate airline after union members said there was no way they would back such a plan.

Sources close to the bankrupt company said Chicago-based UAL is still pursuing starting a low-cost carrier, but flying it as a UAL Corp. airline.

Late Friday, the union representing United Airlines flight attendants confirmed that, saying in a letter to workers that it is "assured that United is not entertaining operating this competitive element as a separate carrier."

UAL Chief Executive Glenn Tilton had floated the idea to the unions of UAL spinning off a low-cost carrier as an entirely separate company, but it was met with harsh opposition.

The pilots and the flight attendants publicly berated the plan, saying spinning off a separate airline would break up United Airlines and force senior United employees to start over at a new company at much lower wages.

"The plan to form a separate, startup carrier by siphoning off United's best assets may be a good plan for the new startup carrier, but it will be the demise of United Airlines," the Association of Flight Attendants said in a letter to employees on Wednesday.

Tilton and UAL senior management presented their blueprint for reorganization to the UAL board of directors on Thursday. UAL has not made its preliminary plans public.

The board, which includes representation from two employee unions, unanimously supported the preliminary plans laid out Thursday, which didn't include the separate airline idea, sources said.

Pilots union spokesman Dave Kelly said he still hadn't seen the full plans yet but that his understanding was that the board "made it clear to Tilton that it was not interested in a low-cost carrier as it was earlier presented."

"They basically said, 'If your vision means a separate corporation, we are not interested in pursuing it,' " Kelly said of the board.

UAL spokesman Chris Brathwaite wouldn't release details Friday about the company's plans for a low-cost carrier, but said the entire board - including Paul Whiteford, the pilot's representative - was behind UAL management's preliminary ideas to get the company out of bankruptcy.

"The board will be fully engaged in this process going forward," Brathwaite said. "The next step will be to continue sharing the plan with our employees and our constituents."

UAL presented its reorganization framework to advisers for its creditors committee on Friday.

The company will hold a daylong officers meeting Feb. 10 to discuss its reorganization plans, according to a recorded message to employees on Friday.

Tilton and other senior UAL managers will then fly to different United Airlines hubs on Feb. 11 to present the plan to employees and other constituents, the message said.

 

[flounder]

airline recovery

During this time of air travel slowdown, as severe as it is, it may be useful for those of us interested to step back and look ahead a few months. Look at how air travel may be affected worldwide when companies begin spending again on capital equipment, and begin aggressively competing with each other for business instead of making cost cutting a top priority.

Because of geopolitical events mainly, it's generally accepted that businesses and many consumers are temporarily on hold. Although anything can happen obviously, and this paralysis could last a long time, history would suggest that we usually get through these difficult situations sooner than we think. I noted during the 1990 recession(a bad one-California was crushed) a serious analysis/pronouncement by a 'top', world renowned 'expert'__ that it would be 10 years before the US economy recovered. Well, the recession was short and sharp but, of course, recovery was firmly under way by the early 90's.

So at the risk of sounding too optimistic, here are a few what ifs:

-What if a certain Middle East based tyrant decided later this month to vacation permanently in North Africa.
-What if renewed Middle East peace negotiations actually began to look fruitful.
-What if the North Korean situation continues to cool off.

Diplomatic and other forces are working to help these what if type
scenarios play out positively.

Snowballing effect what ifs: (beginning within the next 6 months)

--What if businesses(worldwide) rushed to order products to replenish RECORD low inventories.
--What if businesses, as growth resumed following geopolitical relief, realized that competition demanded that company reps needed to meet face to face to close business deals(as has always been the case in spite of new video conferencing technology). And so company 'road warriors' are sent out in increasing numbers.
--What if this summer more leisure travelers finally fly to see family or to vacation(having decided that another 2000 mile round trip saga by car would be more painful than air travel, or
that staying home another summer is out).

--AND so what if this July, because of airline capacity cuts, business travel coordinators and leisure travelers begin having difficulty finding seats when they need to travel. Airlines raise fares, but most vacationers pay because they've delayed their trip for several years. And bizjet charter companies are now booked partly because of a scarcity of business class airline seats at certain times. And in frustration at not being able to find air travel arrangements for overdue summer trips, many leisure travelers immediately make airline reservations for both Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday trips.

Probably never happen.
And yet the United States has a 10 TRILLION+ dollar economy, interest rates are rock bottom, Europe is actually becoming more(slightly) business friendly, barriers to world trade are relatively low, the population continues to grow as do incomes---

We'll see.

 

[HA25]

Re: airline recovery

During this time of air travel slowdown, as severe as it is, it may be useful for those of us interested to step back and look ahead a few months. Look at how air travel may be affected worldwide when companies begin spending again on capital equipment, and begin aggressively competing with each other for business instead of making cost cutting a top priority.

Because of geopolitical events mainly, it's generally accepted that businesses and many consumers are temporarily on hold. Although anything can happen obviously, and this paralysis could last a long time, history would suggest that we usually get through these difficult situations sooner than we think. I noted during the 1990 recession(a bad one-California was crushed) a serious analysis/pronouncement by a 'top', world renowned 'expert'__ that it would be 10 years before the US economy recovered. Well, the recession was short and sharp but, of course, recovery was firmly under way by the early 90's.

So at the risk of sounding too optimistic, here are a few what ifs:

-What if a certain Middle East based tyrant decided later this month to vacation permanently in North Africa.
-What if renewed Middle East peace negotiations actually began to look fruitful.
-What if the North Korean situation continues to cool off.

Diplomatic and other forces are working to help these what if type
scenarios play out positively.

Snowballing effect what ifs: (beginning within the next 6 months)

--What if businesses(worldwide) rushed to order products to replenish RECORD low inventories.
--What if businesses, as growth resumed following geopolitical relief, realized that competition demanded that company reps needed to meet face to face to close business deals(as has always been the case in spite of new video conferencing technology). And so company 'road warriors' are sent out in increasing numbers.
--What if this summer more leisure travelers finally fly to see family or to vacation(having decided that another 2000 mile round trip saga by car would be more painful than air travel, or
that staying home another summer is out).

--AND so what if this July, because of airline capacity cuts, business travel coordinators and leisure travelers begin having difficulty finding seats when they need to travel. Airlines raise fares, but most vacationers pay because they've delayed their trip for several years. And bizjet charter companies are now booked partly because of a scarcity of business class airline seats at certain times. And in frustration at not being able to find air travel arrangements for overdue summer trips, many leisure travelers immediately make airline reservations for both Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday trips.

Probably never happen.
And yet the United States has a 10 TRILLION+ dollar economy, interest rates are rock bottom, Europe is actually becoming more(slightly) business friendly, barriers to world trade are relatively low, the population continues to grow as do incomes---

We'll see.

I love it, another optomist! I'm not alone!

 

[120% Torque]

I will remain an optimist in general but believe we will go to war within the next 4 to 8 weeks. Once the black cloud of war looming over head has been semi-removed things might start looking up. This is barring any further aviation accidents, that people dont associate a crashing space shuttle with crashing airplanes, and that no more immediate terrorist activities take place. Businesses are still hurting and will be for a while but all the shedding of inefficiency (not just in aviation) will begin helping busineses start to gain traction again. We have had a lot of bad things happen in a short period of time. Enron accounting scandels and the collapse of some very large businesses and accounting firms that were supposed to be checking and balancing otherwise healthy businesses, 911, collapse of the overpriced dot coms..... At the very least things are being put in order for lean, mean, efficient companies to emerge and prosper. My 2 cents anyway.

 

[Publishers]

Leadership

The fact is that there is no question that the United that will come out of this is not going to be the United of old or anything like it.

Equally obviously, if you are an employee who has been there for awhile, the last thing you see happening is the disassembly of the airline.

If management comes up with a plan and you do not let them implement it because it is against your self interest, then what chance do you think anyone has of moving forward.

The short version is:

We do not like our current management-- they have brought us to this mess.

We have a new guy we like better with a plan.

OOPS, we do not like the plan because it is going to impact us in a way we do not like.

We do not like current management, they have brought us to this mess.

 

[Heavy Set]

Regardless of what happens, UAL pilots are not going to be very happy. Either Chap 7 with all employees cut or a revamped, watered-down UAL with significant changes, much lower pay and many, many furloughs...

The dominant UAL of the 90s seems quite far away... I knew an Alaska 737 junior captain who gave up his position to get on with UAL - he was among the first 500 or so to be furloughed - ouch....

 

[Bally]

The culture at UAL is not one that will result in its ability to recover. I now fly with a pilot who became an FE at UAL after he passed 60 years of age. He worked at UAL for 25 years. It amazed me that he boasted to me that he was earning a six figure salary at UAL being an FE. This makes no sense at all.

The reality is that pilots should not be earining $300+K per year. I'm sorry, we are not worth that much money. That is more money than many CEO's at successful companies earn. No wonder UAL is bankrupt.

Flight Attendants should not be earning 50+K per year. The idea of a "career FA" also makes no sense to me. I have a long time friend who has worked at UAL for 14 years as a FA. I have watched her over the years take on an atitude of entitlement that without a doubt was fostered by the union. This me me me atitude is the reason for UAL's problems.

What must it be like to work at a company where everyone is negative and complains that they are not getting enough. Then they have a tantrum and have a work slow down or strike.

The greed of the unions has resulted in UAL filing Chapter 11. The same greed will most likely result in UAL filing chapter 7.

Shame on the union leadership for destroying a company. United has been around a very long time, and has played an important role in US Aviation history. It's demise is on the sholders of the labor unions.

 

[Networ-King]

Bally,

I agree with you that unions have pretty much anialated (?) some great carriers. I am also with you on the fact that we as pilots should get no more then 300K a year, but pilots should have to work for that money like the pilots do at SWA or Jetblue. I know they don't make anywhere close to 300K a year, but they do the low 200's. But you have to also remember one thing about our profession....... you have to be performing at 100% at your job everytime you takeoff and land that GIV of yours or else you end up at the wrong airport or you end up killing people ........ I have to perform my job at 100% everytime I go up........ whether I have something on my mind or not..... a cold, a divorce, a sick kid .....whatever.... we all have to perform our jobs at a percentage that no other career demands. Well maybe doctors. Also don't think that the unions did all of this to United by themselves. That great company was brought down by management mostly....excuse me.... by mismanagement and yet Goodwin is somewhere out there fat dumb and happy with a few millions in his pocket after he brought United to its knees. What percentile do you think he was perfoming his job at? and yet he's a millionaire before us. Well before me anyways. Im furloughed from one of the majors and I don't think we should be getting paid that kind of money for the "easy" international flying that my company does. And yet there are guys out there that think 9-12 days of work flying to england, resting for 24 hours then flying home and being off for 4 days is work 500K a year. Its sad, but think about it.............................How much are you worth?