Will the Good Ole Days Ever Return?

[StaySeated]

Cycles

The only thing that occurs in cycles are furloughs as capacity lags behind the direction of the overall economy. The effort to lower labor costs has not been cyclical, it has been a constant downward trend that really picked up steam in the 80's with the concept of a "b" scale. The obvious split of a single seniority list did not prevail, but the end result has been achieved with wholly owned subs and whip saw feeds. Combine the fact that "small jets" will eventually completly replace narrow bodies and the ultimate coup de tat, elimination of defined benefit plans and I can say with little doubt that no, this industry will never be what it once was. Call it a paradigm shift or fundamental change in the business model or a total crock of sh1t, regardless, if you think you are going to make 1999-2000 coin any time in the next 20 years I believe you are very wrong. I am not even talking about adjusting for inflation, the pre-concession UAL/DAL contracts are dinosaurs.

 

[turn&pull]

"If we can find someway to control the supply of pilots, we could get those salaries back easy."

Pilot wages have nothing to do with supply and demand. In todays environment the airline revenue is just not there. When airlines do well, the pilots usually get a piece of the action.

I do believe that it will get better. The question is when? Hopefully the fed will be able to stave off inflation and keep us from going into a recession but I think that is unlikely.

Our economy is more tenuous than it has been in decades. The treasury is hurting for money and they are already taking steps to make loaning us money more attractive. Interest rate increases are inevitable and if something catastrophic happens we could be looking at the worst recession in several decades.

Our economy is hanging on by a thread, and until it becomes more in balance with the world economy, our jobs in this country are nowhere near secure and the airlines is no exception.

Unless we get some better fiscal policy, this is going to be a long ride.

 

[Melon]

Leaving the overall state of the economy out of it (tough to do but just for grins) what do you guys think? My main thought is it will always be, in the short-term (10 years) an employer's market. After that who knows. Fuel costs, IMO, are not going to decrease although I know some MBA types whose opinion differs.

 

[GogglesPisano]

Too many pilots, too many airlines, too few dollars. It's simple economics. We are feeling the effects of deregulation 30 years later, internet clearing house ticket sales and leasing companies wanting to flood the world with airplanes.

It's only going to get worse.

Ryanair will be flying ORD-LGA with pilots captains making $50G and FO's making $30 within 10 years. And Kit will still be talking about a pilot shortage as dollar bills overflow from his briefcase as he walks out the Air Inc seminar lobby.

 

[captjim]

Yes the good old days are gone for good. Political correctness will keep the old, fat, and gay FA's with us forever; meaning, no sex with hotties. Gas will never be 30 cents a gallon. LCC carriers are here, good old days are gone for good.

 

[FN FAL]

I am doing the usual look-ahead that so many of us do. This has got me thinking, will the good old days, i.e. pre-9/11 ever return? Discuss...

In the good old days, phosgene and mustard gas was used in trench combat, people fought hand to hand and the French thought that the Maginot line was going to keep the Hun out of their backyard...in addition, in the good old days you wore a turnip on your belt, which was the style at the time. But on the bright side, beer was a nickel a glass and mogas was dirt cheap...and plenty of handsome lads signed up to fly aeroplanes.

 

[Airway]

Life was good under a regulated industry.. We live in a country now where nothing is special or respected anymore.

You want glamour and respect in this job? Find a different country. From what I can gather from any Ernie Gann or Bob Buck books and every crusty captain I've befriended, the "good ol' days" weren't just the money, but the respect and admiration that came with the job. Now, you have all these jackasses who'll go around with no spines and pay to fly airplanes for a job or do it for 25K a year because they think it'll get them laid.

Or you can find a way to get pilots to stick together a little more rather than having a bunch of dimwits knocking each other because "my regional is better than yours....even though I chose to work for sh*t outsourced wages, just like you."

 

[pilotyip]

Airway, life was good for a few pilots under regulation. There are probably 4-5 times as many pilots jobs now as there was in 1977. Back in reg time it was about 90% military that went to the majors. Dereg opened up a lot of airline job to non-military pilots. To return to regulation would rasie ticket prices, reduce the number of passengers, and there reduce the number of pilots needed. BTW SWA the low cost provider has near the top wages, this was done under de-reg.

 

[Crash Pad]

Pre 9/11 is the good ol days. Hey I saw Catch me if you can The Pan Am, TWA erra seemed pretty flippen sweet. You guys want to make 300K... I'm beyond that I want a flight attendant that doesn't look like madusa to blow me in the cockpit while passing through 300 feet on an ILS. Bring back the drinking and doing blow on overnights. Would it kill somebody to show some tits after a good landing. Would a resonable meal on a 4 hour flight really break the bank? When the hot girl going to Miami boards can we ditch security and invite her up to the cockpit. Hey maybe even let her fly without a memo and somebody getting canned. Can I get a captain making three times what I make to once just once say "hey kid stow your crap I'll be drinking at the bar in ten minutes... I'm buying so you better be drinking" The truth is that the things that made this profession worth talking about at cocktail parties has been gone for quite some time. Bring back that stuff and I won't even know what the payscales are.

 

[PCL_128]

BTW SWA the low cost provider has near the top wages, this was done under de-reg.

SWA's wages have not gone up, the rest of the wages have come down to their level. The top wages at SWA are still a fraction of the Pan Am, American, Eastern, etc... wages from 30 years ago when corrected for inflation. It's not even close. Regulation has destroyed this industry and this career is a shadow of what it was under regulation.

 

[Gorilla]

Why do guys always portray the 10 days/month 777 guy as the "lazy, good-ol-days" example? Then, the 80 hour MD-80 or RJ guy is brought forward as a hard working, junior pilot.

Do the math. A Tokyo trip burns upwards of 24 hours in a 3-day span. Three trips later, you're sitting on 72 and change. Maybe you pick up a domestic turn - there's your contractural month, all full. Even if you flew the FARs doing Tokyo, you're not going to fly more than 12 days. That's just the nature of the beast. Seniority is good. I'm not on the 777 anymore but I wish I was.

Good ol days? Yes there were good ol days. Do the "New Cadillac" test... how many hours must you fly to buy a new Caddy? As inflation and pay cuts have gutted our earning power, the number of hours has gone way up. I wish I had a copy of the "Cadillac" chart. It shows the dramatic erosion of pay over the last few decades.

 

[maru657]

Perception may be the problem. As an old friend once said it is a skilled trade and should be viewed as such. You didn't see the large influx of ex-military pilots untill the 60's and the advent of widespread jet service boosted the requirement for large hiring pools. At some point afterwards it started to be viewed as a "white collar" profession and as the saying goes, pilots failed the IQ tests and started voting like white collar professionals Some viewthe breaking point as during the tenure of Duffy and Hall. The professionals submitted to security searches and random drug and alcohol screening. Something no self respecting blue collar joe would have stood for. During this period the so called white collar principals at the majors decided it was OK to create a permanent underclass of angry pilots at the new commuter model. Pilots forced to remain in jobs with long hours, little reward and no advancement. Many of these pilots would up crossing picket lines and who could blame them? A good example was AA and American Eagle during the 90's. Allied basically told the Eagle boys that we will allow a select few of you to start at the bottom. That's behind our more "white collar" 1000 hour Aryan Airmen. Unfortunately,the Eagle boys, desperate for a chance bought into it. It would have been interesting to see the Eagle group tell Allied to pack sand. That they would support Eagle management in any attempt to continually operate larger aircraft on any and all routes. The problem was never management or Lorenzo.

 

[B-J-J Fighter]

Pre 9/11 is the good ol days. Hey I saw Catch me if you can The Pan Am, TWA erra seemed pretty flippen sweet. You guys want to make 300K... I'm beyond that I want a flight attendant that doesn't look like madusa to blow me in the cockpit while passing through 300 feet on an ILS. Bring back the drinking and doing blow on overnights. Would it kill somebody to show some tits after a good landing. Would a resonable meal on a 4 hour flight really break the bank? When the hot girl going to Miami boards can we ditch security and invite her up to the cockpit. Hey maybe even let her fly without a memo and somebody getting canned. Can I get a captain making three times what I make to once just once say "hey kid stow your crap I'll be drinking at the bar in ten minutes... I'm buying so you better be drinking" The truth is that the things that made this profession worth talking about at cocktail parties has been gone for quite some time. Bring back that stuff and I won't even know what the payscales are.

That was funny.