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Will the Good Ole Days Ever Return?
- Thread starter Melon
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Cpt. Underpants
Super Hero
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2003
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81Horse
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 15, 2005
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My pessimist's view: America as a whole is experiencing what happens to the reservoir when the dam breaks. In a global economy, it's ludicrous to imagine we can maintain high water on our side -- because the dam has been breached already.
We are losing our middle middle-class. The piloting profession is falling below the dividing line between the upper- and lower-middle classes. I don't believe we're going to see the bar coming up again for pilot hiring -- I predict the bar, will in fact, slip down. Piloting is going to be a skilled trade, not a prestigious (and highly-paid) profession.
And the vast, unwashed, coupon-clipping public doesn't care. Flying has become a commoditized form of mass transit; the experience, the service, the amenities, all show it -- and soon, the pilot workforce will, too. And then Pilotyip will be right -- you really won't need a college degree to be an airline pilot.
When college-educated, expensively trained and rated pilots walk away from the industry -- as they are already doing -- it's not going to bring pay up; it's going to send hiring criteria down.
I'm really hoping my kid will become an orthodontist.
We are losing our middle middle-class. The piloting profession is falling below the dividing line between the upper- and lower-middle classes. I don't believe we're going to see the bar coming up again for pilot hiring -- I predict the bar, will in fact, slip down. Piloting is going to be a skilled trade, not a prestigious (and highly-paid) profession.
And the vast, unwashed, coupon-clipping public doesn't care. Flying has become a commoditized form of mass transit; the experience, the service, the amenities, all show it -- and soon, the pilot workforce will, too. And then Pilotyip will be right -- you really won't need a college degree to be an airline pilot.
When college-educated, expensively trained and rated pilots walk away from the industry -- as they are already doing -- it's not going to bring pay up; it's going to send hiring criteria down.
I'm really hoping my kid will become an orthodontist.
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Huck
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2001
- Posts
- 1,076
When my dad started in 1968, things immediately went to sh!t. He went on strike (NWA) three times in the seventies, people were laid off everywhere, the best quarters NWA had were when they were on strike and the fleet was parked.
When my uncle (UAL 570'er) started in 1985, things immediately went to sh!t. He was fired for striking and lost his job for three years until a judge (and bad old ALPA) got his job back. During that time he flew a King Aire for $30k a year. My dad at NWA took a 25% pay cut and started looking for a place to go if they went under. This with three kids in college.
When I started in 1991 things were already in the sh!t. There were over a HUNDRED Eastern guys in Birmingham with bills to pay, looking for corporate flying. I had twenty year airline pilots (two of them) look me in the eye and tell me to stay out of this profession.
It's like Gore Vidal says, there's no good old days, just days.
By the way, in the eighties, the last time fuel got high, they were trying to hang props on MD-80's. I don't think the RJ's have the efficiency to be around forever. The turboprops will be back. And like Pancho Barnes said, some sonofab!tch has got to build ém, and some pudnockers got to get in and fly ém.
When my uncle (UAL 570'er) started in 1985, things immediately went to sh!t. He was fired for striking and lost his job for three years until a judge (and bad old ALPA) got his job back. During that time he flew a King Aire for $30k a year. My dad at NWA took a 25% pay cut and started looking for a place to go if they went under. This with three kids in college.
When I started in 1991 things were already in the sh!t. There were over a HUNDRED Eastern guys in Birmingham with bills to pay, looking for corporate flying. I had twenty year airline pilots (two of them) look me in the eye and tell me to stay out of this profession.
It's like Gore Vidal says, there's no good old days, just days.
By the way, in the eighties, the last time fuel got high, they were trying to hang props on MD-80's. I don't think the RJ's have the efficiency to be around forever. The turboprops will be back. And like Pancho Barnes said, some sonofab!tch has got to build ém, and some pudnockers got to get in and fly ém.
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Big Slick
Well-known member
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2004
- Posts
- 284
Personally, I think the "Good ol' Days" when 777 Captains made $300k a year for working 10 days a month are gone for good. Being an airline pilot will still be a great job, just not ridiculously great. When I started working at AA, I thought to myself, "This is too good to be true!" Sure enough it was.
Here are a couple of variables that make the current situation different than the past:
1. Fuel costs. The cost of fuel is going to stay high until we run out. Fuel is a finite resource and the cost will only go up. Maybe after we win the war on terror, the cost will go down. (LOL) In the short term, things might get better in 2008 when SWA does not have as large of an advantage. In the long term, however, everyone is in a sinking boat.
2. Globablization. You think Southwest and jetBlue charge low fares? Wait until Ryan Air or some company from Mexico starts flying domestically. It is entirely possible for someone to out-LCC the LCCs. How about paying their pilots $35,000 a year to fly a 737? I guarantee people would take that job. Someone from Mexico would for sure.
Wait until Emirates starts flying discount international flights worldwide. The legacies will be losing money domestically and internationally. Globalization will do to the airlines what it is doing to the auto industry - it will wipe out the middle class. In our case, the upper-middle class.
If you can settle for an airline job where you make about $100,000 max and fly 80 hours a month, then this is the career for you. If you expect to still make $300,000 a year for doing almost nothing, this is not the career for you anymore.
The sooner we accept our new reality, the sooner we can all stop complaining and dreaming of the "Good ol' Days."
My two cents...
Here are a couple of variables that make the current situation different than the past:
1. Fuel costs. The cost of fuel is going to stay high until we run out. Fuel is a finite resource and the cost will only go up. Maybe after we win the war on terror, the cost will go down. (LOL) In the short term, things might get better in 2008 when SWA does not have as large of an advantage. In the long term, however, everyone is in a sinking boat.
2. Globablization. You think Southwest and jetBlue charge low fares? Wait until Ryan Air or some company from Mexico starts flying domestically. It is entirely possible for someone to out-LCC the LCCs. How about paying their pilots $35,000 a year to fly a 737? I guarantee people would take that job. Someone from Mexico would for sure.
Wait until Emirates starts flying discount international flights worldwide. The legacies will be losing money domestically and internationally. Globalization will do to the airlines what it is doing to the auto industry - it will wipe out the middle class. In our case, the upper-middle class.
If you can settle for an airline job where you make about $100,000 max and fly 80 hours a month, then this is the career for you. If you expect to still make $300,000 a year for doing almost nothing, this is not the career for you anymore.
The sooner we accept our new reality, the sooner we can all stop complaining and dreaming of the "Good ol' Days."
My two cents...
StaySeated
IBT does not represent ME
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2001
- Posts
- 782
Cycles
The only thing that occurs in cycles are furloughs as capacity lags behind the direction of the overall economy. The effort to lower labor costs has not been cyclical, it has been a constant downward trend that really picked up steam in the 80's with the concept of a "b" scale. The obvious split of a single seniority list did not prevail, but the end result has been achieved with wholly owned subs and whip saw feeds. Combine the fact that "small jets" will eventually completly replace narrow bodies and the ultimate coup de tat, elimination of defined benefit plans and I can say with little doubt that no, this industry will never be what it once was. Call it a paradigm shift or fundamental change in the business model or a total crock of sh1t, regardless, if you think you are going to make 1999-2000 coin any time in the next 20 years I believe you are very wrong. I am not even talking about adjusting for inflation, the pre-concession UAL/DAL contracts are dinosaurs.
The only thing that occurs in cycles are furloughs as capacity lags behind the direction of the overall economy. The effort to lower labor costs has not been cyclical, it has been a constant downward trend that really picked up steam in the 80's with the concept of a "b" scale. The obvious split of a single seniority list did not prevail, but the end result has been achieved with wholly owned subs and whip saw feeds. Combine the fact that "small jets" will eventually completly replace narrow bodies and the ultimate coup de tat, elimination of defined benefit plans and I can say with little doubt that no, this industry will never be what it once was. Call it a paradigm shift or fundamental change in the business model or a total crock of sh1t, regardless, if you think you are going to make 1999-2000 coin any time in the next 20 years I believe you are very wrong. I am not even talking about adjusting for inflation, the pre-concession UAL/DAL contracts are dinosaurs.
turn&pull
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2004
- Posts
- 85
"If we can find someway to control the supply of pilots, we could get those salaries back easy."
Pilot wages have nothing to do with supply and demand. In todays environment the airline revenue is just not there. When airlines do well, the pilots usually get a piece of the action.
I do believe that it will get better. The question is when? Hopefully the fed will be able to stave off inflation and keep us from going into a recession but I think that is unlikely.
Our economy is more tenuous than it has been in decades. The treasury is hurting for money and they are already taking steps to make loaning us money more attractive. Interest rate increases are inevitable and if something catastrophic happens we could be looking at the worst recession in several decades.
Our economy is hanging on by a thread, and until it becomes more in balance with the world economy, our jobs in this country are nowhere near secure and the airlines is no exception.
Unless we get some better fiscal policy, this is going to be a long ride.
Pilot wages have nothing to do with supply and demand. In todays environment the airline revenue is just not there. When airlines do well, the pilots usually get a piece of the action.
I do believe that it will get better. The question is when? Hopefully the fed will be able to stave off inflation and keep us from going into a recession but I think that is unlikely.
Our economy is more tenuous than it has been in decades. The treasury is hurting for money and they are already taking steps to make loaning us money more attractive. Interest rate increases are inevitable and if something catastrophic happens we could be looking at the worst recession in several decades.
Our economy is hanging on by a thread, and until it becomes more in balance with the world economy, our jobs in this country are nowhere near secure and the airlines is no exception.
Unless we get some better fiscal policy, this is going to be a long ride.
Leaving the overall state of the economy out of it (tough to do but just for grins) what do you guys think? My main thought is it will always be, in the short-term (10 years) an employer's market. After that who knows. Fuel costs, IMO, are not going to decrease although I know some MBA types whose opinion differs.
GogglesPisano
Pawn, in game of life
- Joined
- Oct 20, 2003
- Posts
- 3,939
Too many pilots, too many airlines, too few dollars. It's simple economics. We are feeling the effects of deregulation 30 years later, internet clearing house ticket sales and leasing companies wanting to flood the world with airplanes.
It's only going to get worse.
Ryanair will be flying ORD-LGA with pilots captains making $50G and FO's making $30 within 10 years. And Kit will still be talking about a pilot shortage as dollar bills overflow from his briefcase as he walks out the Air Inc seminar lobby.
It's only going to get worse.
Ryanair will be flying ORD-LGA with pilots captains making $50G and FO's making $30 within 10 years. And Kit will still be talking about a pilot shortage as dollar bills overflow from his briefcase as he walks out the Air Inc seminar lobby.
captjim
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2001
- Posts
- 461
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