Will Major Airline salaries rebound???

[JJJ]

You make a non sequiter when you state wages will go up when unions make concessions. WTF???? Over.

Read my post again. I said that I believe that profits will be made when concessions are made, not wages will increase when concessions are made.

I suspect once the unions take cuts and fuel prices come down airlines will start making a profit/stop hiding a profit.

Common sense says that fuel prices go up, and fuel prices go down.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

No, No, No. Will not happen.

In fact this is the wrong focus. You will be better served by studying the company you want to work for. Is the management sound, are workers content, is the company growing? Are they financially sound and turning a profit? Are they going thru a restructuring or significant change? Those are the factors that count. Not the highest salary. Often the highest salary is a warning sign because once they go up they don't come down if needed to help save the company. Or they come down too late. There are exceptions to every rule, but why take a long shot?

 

[GogglesPisano]

Ban flight schools!

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

Are $2000 walk up biz fares coming back?

 

[General Lee]

If the airlines survive, then wages will eventually rise again. Whether or not they will be as high as before---that depends on the negotiation process. Will the high fares return? Maybe, maybe not. Back in '95 our Ex CEO Ron Allen said "Times have changed FOREVER"--when he was talking about Southwest starting to invade Florida. Then oil prices went way down (I remember 76 cents a gallon in ATL in '96) and the late 90's were great. It probably also depends on how many LCCs are out there.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[BRA]

One thing to keep in mind is that the pay per hour would actually have to be higher then it had ever been. 5-10 years after 9/11 equals 2006-2011. You would have to add to keep up with 5-10 years of inflation. Properties, college, cars, and hot girls for example show no signs of getting any cheaper.

 

[MECH]

Pilot compensation will never again see the high levels of the 90's.

There are pilots that are willing to fly an airplane for 80 dollars an hour. While another group of pilots get 180 dollars an hour to fly a similiar sized aircraft. This creates pressure on both sides. On one side the pilots are fighting for more and on the other side management is fighting to pay less.

In the above case it is easy to give back 20% of $200/hr equals $160/hr. But fort the other group to get to $160/hr would require a 100% raise. And managements do not hand out that kind of raise.

The other problem facing the pilots of this country is cabatoge. At Continental, COPA Airlines(CAL owns 30% of COPA) flies 737 from Panama to MIA. The get paid half of what a CAL pilot gets paid. The sad part of this situation is that the 737 flown by the COPA pilot was bought by Continental Airlines and sub leased to COPA. Continental is now trying to by Aviaonca. They will more then likely do the same thing at that airline.

The other danger is another reduction in crew members. About the time there is a shortage in pilots(2014). There will be a new type of aircraft developed by Airbus, or any other manufacture.

This has happened to a lot of other skilled professionals and it will happen to us, replaced by a machine.

 

[BRA]

Wasn't pay for training around more during the mid 90's? $10,000 to work at Coex, and others? That went away and pay eventually went up to record levels. After the 9/11 downturn i believe only colgan went to PFT. 4 months ago Coex wanted people with 1500/500, now it has come down to 1200/200. Things change. Last year only a hand full of companies were hiring. Everyone on this board was pretty down in the dumps. Things change. Comair was where everyone wanted to be.....now people are even sticking their nose up at that and hoping for the places with a quicker upgrade. (doesn't help the pay arguement i know). Not everything is always going to be doom and gloom forever.

 

[General Lee]

Yes, but Avianca and Copa will not fly to MIA and then on to ATL or IAH. That will not happen. Copa still doesn't fly from Panama City to IAH---only CAL pilots do on their own 737s. CAL also never flew from MIA to Panama City, Panama. Partial ownership in other airlines does NOT mean that cabbotage will happen. It could have been a good investment if South America flying gets more and more profitable.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[blahshmah]

yea... and a few years back everyone predicted that business trips would no longer be needed due to virtual meetings.

Technology will change some but I predict better times are coming and we have a few decades left before people trust machines to just one set of eyes in the front and even more time before they will fly on an airplane without a human.

 

[Mugs]

Gordon has some ideas on how to compete with the LCC's:

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Reuters
Continental Air CEO Says Not Ready for 7E7 or A380
Friday April 30, 3:50 pm ET


SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co.'s new mid-sized 7E7 jetliner would be a great fit for Continental Airlines, if only the airline had the money to pay for it, the carrier's chief executive said on Friday.
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"We said we're ready to order, we're just not ready to pay," Continental CEO Gordon Bethune told reporters before taking delivery of the final 757-300 to roll off Boeing's assembly line.

Houston-based Continental, the No. 5 U.S. carrier, is also shunning Airbus SAS' mammoth 555-seat A380, which will come to market in 2006.

That decision is hardly a surprise, since Bethune is a former Boeing executive who arranged rock-bottom pricing for Continental's all-Boeing fleet.

But Bethune also questioned the benefits of flying on an A380, saying Continental's passengers were leery of long lines to board a jet with 600 others and were already getting low transatlantic fares on Continental's current jets.

"What's in it for the consumer," Bethune said. "He's already got a $99 (seasonal transatlantic) fare and I say statistically, one out of 600 people smell real bad. He might be sitting next to you."

Continental has a young fleet and no need to expand amid weak U.S. demand for air travel. But down the road Bethune expects Continental to order the 7E7, which was formally launched on Monday and is slated to replace Boeing's 757 and 767 models.

"We're waiting for you guys to buy more tickets and then we'll be responding appropriately," Bethune said.

U.S. air traffic has picked up recently, but traditional airlines like Continental face strong competition from discount carriers that often have lower operating costs, thanks to new fleets and younger workers earning lower wages, Bethune said.

"All I have to do is fire everybody every five years" to compete with low-cost carriers, Bethune quipped.

Continental has made progress cutting costs, despite high fuel prices. The carrier lost $124 million in the first quarter, improving from a $221 million loss a year earlier.

"It's ludicrous to believe that all the new guys are going to win and all the old guys are going to die. The people that stay up with the markets are going to always prevail and you're looking at them," Bethune said.



There you have it. Since year 5 will become the top of the pay scale before you start all over again, we can conclude that major airline salaries will not return to previous levels.

Wouldn't it be fun to have a few beers with Gordo?

 

[Publishers]

Defining the new world

Will the salaries return to the old level. Well if one adjusts for inflation and the real value of the dollar, the averages have probably come down consistantly for most of the last few years.

They have basically followed fares downward as more and more of the passengers are flying on a discount.

I also think that the difinition will change from major and minors to international and domestic. Southwest and Airtran along with Jetblue are airlines that are domestic, not LCC or anything else. Calling them the LCC's just implies that one has failed to reach the reality.

The cycles in the industry have always tended to adjust salaries that get out of hand when times are good. It was pointed out in the Gordon comments regarding 5 years. The fact that one gets paid more and more to do the same job because of senority and size of equipment tends to keep the base salaries low.

 

[lurker]

Gordon has some ideas on how to compete with the LCC's:


"What's in it for the consumer," Bethune said. "He's already got a $99 (seasonal transatlantic) fare and I say statistically, one out of 600 people smell real bad. He might be sitting next to you."

That might be the funniest quote I've ever heard a CEO make.