Will Major Airline salaries rebound???

[OakRBust]

I think that maybe you two should get a room!!

 

[jarhead]

"Not that there's anything wrong with that.........."

Seinfeld and Kramer..

 

[enigma]

Wondering what the consensus is on whether or not Major Airline salaries will rebound?

Wages are determined by the supply of available/qualified labor. Wages will climb when the supply of pilots declines enough to allow the remaining pilots to leave low pay in search of higher pay. Employers will have to increase pay in order to maintain profitable staffing levels. The only problem is that as soon as the trend seems only slightly upward, every Tom, Dick, and Harry who ever wanted to be an airline pilot will begin training. In about four years, the supply will have once again overrun demand and wages will fall once again.

That's the economics of the issue. What we need to be looking at to derive an answer to your question is the projected pilot supply. I'm not a detail guy. I'm sure others will have the info to back up their stands, I don't. I'm just flying by the seat of my pants, but I believe that it is possible that we might see a decrease of pilots sometime around 2008/2010. Retirements will be high as the Vietnam era pilots reach 60, the military budget cuts of the 90's mean that fewer mil pilots are available, and even if the military ramps up, the pilots in training today will still have a service obligation in 2008. I believe that the window will not be open long, but wages should be able to recover to the levels seen in 2000. How long they stay up, is a matter to be determined by computer programs much more shphisticated than my feeble greymatter.

There's two cents worth of thought, now if I could only get two cents for it.

regards,
enigma

 

[Mooseflyer]

Re: Re: Will Major Airline salaries rebound???

even if the military ramps up, the pilots in training today will still have a service obligation in 2008.

Don't they wish!! More like 2014 - long time to give your life away.

I think you're on the right track with pilot supply being the driving factor in salary though. Yes, military pilots eligible to separate now (my year group) are comparitively few and far between due to the fact that the military trained so few in the mid '90s. To compound, I think the effects of 9/11 on new pilot training will have an effect as well (i.e. higher airport fences, fewer "airport kids", high training costs, etc. make for fewer new pilots). This, however, will take a number of years to flow through.

 

[Skater]

pilot shortage

I am ex-military and I agree with what you said on the military side. I also think from the civilian side, less people will be interested in spending the money and time becoming a pilot since the payback isn't there and the job security sucks. I have a hard time telling anyone right now that becoming a pilot is a good career choice.

 

[JJJ]

You make a non sequiter when you state wages will go up when unions make concessions. WTF???? Over.

Read my post again. I said that I believe that profits will be made when concessions are made, not wages will increase when concessions are made.

I suspect once the unions take cuts and fuel prices come down airlines will start making a profit/stop hiding a profit.

Common sense says that fuel prices go up, and fuel prices go down.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

No, No, No. Will not happen.

In fact this is the wrong focus. You will be better served by studying the company you want to work for. Is the management sound, are workers content, is the company growing? Are they financially sound and turning a profit? Are they going thru a restructuring or significant change? Those are the factors that count. Not the highest salary. Often the highest salary is a warning sign because once they go up they don't come down if needed to help save the company. Or they come down too late. There are exceptions to every rule, but why take a long shot?

 

[GogglesPisano]

Ban flight schools!

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

Are $2000 walk up biz fares coming back?

 

[General Lee]

If the airlines survive, then wages will eventually rise again. Whether or not they will be as high as before---that depends on the negotiation process. Will the high fares return? Maybe, maybe not. Back in '95 our Ex CEO Ron Allen said "Times have changed FOREVER"--when he was talking about Southwest starting to invade Florida. Then oil prices went way down (I remember 76 cents a gallon in ATL in '96) and the late 90's were great. It probably also depends on how many LCCs are out there.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[BRA]

One thing to keep in mind is that the pay per hour would actually have to be higher then it had ever been. 5-10 years after 9/11 equals 2006-2011. You would have to add to keep up with 5-10 years of inflation. Properties, college, cars, and hot girls for example show no signs of getting any cheaper.

 

[MECH]

Pilot compensation will never again see the high levels of the 90's.

There are pilots that are willing to fly an airplane for 80 dollars an hour. While another group of pilots get 180 dollars an hour to fly a similiar sized aircraft. This creates pressure on both sides. On one side the pilots are fighting for more and on the other side management is fighting to pay less.

In the above case it is easy to give back 20% of $200/hr equals $160/hr. But fort the other group to get to $160/hr would require a 100% raise. And managements do not hand out that kind of raise.

The other problem facing the pilots of this country is cabatoge. At Continental, COPA Airlines(CAL owns 30% of COPA) flies 737 from Panama to MIA. The get paid half of what a CAL pilot gets paid. The sad part of this situation is that the 737 flown by the COPA pilot was bought by Continental Airlines and sub leased to COPA. Continental is now trying to by Aviaonca. They will more then likely do the same thing at that airline.

The other danger is another reduction in crew members. About the time there is a shortage in pilots(2014). There will be a new type of aircraft developed by Airbus, or any other manufacture.

This has happened to a lot of other skilled professionals and it will happen to us, replaced by a machine.

 

[BRA]

Wasn't pay for training around more during the mid 90's? $10,000 to work at Coex, and others? That went away and pay eventually went up to record levels. After the 9/11 downturn i believe only colgan went to PFT. 4 months ago Coex wanted people with 1500/500, now it has come down to 1200/200. Things change. Last year only a hand full of companies were hiring. Everyone on this board was pretty down in the dumps. Things change. Comair was where everyone wanted to be.....now people are even sticking their nose up at that and hoping for the places with a quicker upgrade. (doesn't help the pay arguement i know). Not everything is always going to be doom and gloom forever.

 

[General Lee]

Yes, but Avianca and Copa will not fly to MIA and then on to ATL or IAH. That will not happen. Copa still doesn't fly from Panama City to IAH---only CAL pilots do on their own 737s. CAL also never flew from MIA to Panama City, Panama. Partial ownership in other airlines does NOT mean that cabbotage will happen. It could have been a good investment if South America flying gets more and more profitable.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[blahshmah]

yea... and a few years back everyone predicted that business trips would no longer be needed due to virtual meetings.

Technology will change some but I predict better times are coming and we have a few decades left before people trust machines to just one set of eyes in the front and even more time before they will fly on an airplane without a human.