Will DHL target ABX’s DC9 aircraft for cuts?

[shooter]

It appears DHL wants to go back to the previous way of operating before coming to ILN, focus on International freight and high dollar/low volume type clients. This goes back to the "niche" market that they were fairly successful at (and now I'll expect to see post after post of how they were losing money at that, which is not true).

I also suspect the smaller rural destinations will be serviced by USPS just as it were pre-ILN. DHL will focus on major cities with smaller feeders flying out from there.

Before you start a flame war this is just my observation from what I have seen. In my 20+ years of flying for DHL I have heard time and time again of our demise. What most fail to recognize is you don't have to be FDX or UPS to survive the freight market, but rather find a niche and go from there.

True, you only need a niche. Airborne had that niche of B2B express business. DHL decided they wanted to go into the express business to compete with FedEx, so they bought Airborne Express. If they wanted to do what they did before or change models to compete with the likes of UPS they should have bought a trucking company. Do you think they reversed course and abandoned being an express carrier? Well, now they are broke and can't buy a trucking company.

My conclusion is that you are wrong and they will continue to try and compete in the express business. If they try to do that by "being what they were before", they will fail miserably and end up leaving the US market. If they try to do it without a large air service the result will be the same. The world has changed since DHL was formed in 1969 and that is the reason DHL never grew in that time. Then Deutsche Post came in to buy them and you can't stake claim to the EU profits, it was a monopoly in Germany for Chr1$# sakes. To go back to that outdated model is suicide and the German Post people know it and will never do that to their company.

There is a reason FedEx is #1 in express and it's relation to the size of their airline is clue one. There is a reason UPS is #1 in the parcel area and the size of their truck fleet is clue two. There is reason Airborne was #3 and since purchased by DHL has fallen below to #4.....somewhere in that is clue three.

 

[hvydriver]

Shooter,

You guys keep seeming to forget that DHL is the largest express company in the world. Bigger than UPS/FedEx combined. The US is a small cog in that machine. You assign too much importance to this market from a global perspective. Were they to decide to actually draw back down to pre-merger levels, they would still be so, and survive as a global entity quite nicely. I'm not saying that is their intent, but drawing down the US ops. would most certainly not be a "suicide move" for DHL.

 

[fob727]

There is reason Airborne was #3 and since purchased by DHL has fallen below to #4.....somewhere in that is clue three.

Airborne...weren't they bought out by someone a fews years back?

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

DHL was successful as a "niche player" when International air express was a "niche market." That's no longer the case. FedEx and UPS service almost as many International destinations as DHL does. Those destinations that they don't serve, they co-op with DHL or other local carrier.

I'm not sure what "niche" DHL would be moving into, unless it's some market that UPS and FedEx have deemed too small and/or problematic to be profitable.

 

[FastHap]

Shooter,

You guys keep seeming to forget that DHL is the largest express company in the world. Bigger than UPS/FedEx combined. The US is a small cog in that machine. You assign too much importance to this market from a global perspective. Were they to decide to actually draw back down to pre-merger levels, they would still be so, and survive as a global entity quite nicely. I'm not saying that is their intent, but drawing down the US ops. would most certainly not be a "suicide move" for DHL.

For a long time, DHL (before DPWN) was the only player in most of the non US world. Times are changing. UPS has big plans. ANA has big plans. The world keeps getting smaller, and so does DHL's slice of the pie. I hope the trend can be reversed. I love my job, and really hope DPWN pulls it together for all our sakes.

 

[MJH767]

I hope for everyone's sake this all turns out better than we expect. I think however, that the fact that DHL is the number one express shipper in the world, is a "snapshot". I don't think it will be that way much longer.

 

[shooter]

Shooter,

You guys keep seeming to forget that DHL is the largest express company in the world. Bigger than UPS/FedEx combined. The US is a small cog in that machine. You assign too much importance to this market from a global perspective. Were they to decide to actually draw back down to pre-merger levels, they would still be so, and survive as a global entity quite nicely. I'm not saying that is their intent, but drawing down the US ops. would most certainly not be a "suicide move" for DHL.

No sir hvy, the US is the largest express market in the world. That is why Deutsche Post wants to break into it. They do have a good hold on the rest of the world, but not so much in the US. They never have and neither has DHL before the Germans purchased them. But again, times they are a changin'. Asia is very fast growing market and just may pass the US in express business. As more of our companies outsource to Asia countries like India and China we will be passed. Kinda makes me sick, but I digress. Maybe you are right that it will not be a suicide move for them to draw down the US market if the US market keeps falling. Either way FedEx and UPS are making ground on the international market and DHL has yet to secure a spot in the US market of their own. They bought one....but lost it. Will they change their business plan to offer the products customers want with service they demand? Or will they shrink it down until they are no longer in the US market? We will find out soon enough. A failing plan will fail soon enough. If they think parking aircraft and reducing service coverage is the answer, the question must be how to fail and collapse in the US market.

p.s.-that number one international will soon see some realistic numbers as they just lost the monopoly in Germany. They are now in for a run for their money, and they know it.

 

[FastHap]

For a long time, DHL (before DPWN) was the only player in most of the non US world. Times are changing. UPS has big plans. ANA has big plans. The world keeps getting smaller, and so does DHL's slice of the pie. I hope the trend can be reversed. I love my job, and really hope DPWN pulls it together for all our sakes.

Or maybe ANA will buy 49% of ATSG. I think they want to be the UPS of Asia. But then again, UPS wants to be the UPS of Asia. I'm just exhausted from waiting for the other shoe to drop.

 

[shooter]

There is reason Airborne was #3 and since purchased by DHL has fallen below to #4.....somewhere in that is clue three.

Airborne...weren't they bought out by someone a fews years back?

You seem to have reading comprehension problems. Look at my words you have quoted and see if a light bulb comes on. :laugh:

 

[ABXbooger]

UPS and Fedex's growth for the last several years has come from international. DHL gives up the US and they are done.

Once the rest of the world gets a taste of what "express" truly is(read Fedex and UPS), DHL is done. DHL didn't have to compete until they came to the US, and they failed, miserably.