Will Comair's 700/900's go Senior or Junior

[PA44Jockey]

Just curious if what your thoughts are on how the group will bid the next few times around.

 

[DDpaysoff]

There are stil displaced captains for the 15 a/c that we gave to skywest and ASA. So they have first rights to any vacancy regardless of seniority. Now keep in mind we took a pretty big paycut and the CVG base was downsized, so there are 7-8 year 50 seat captains on reserve in CVG. Some will probably bid the 70 vacancies for the raise since they will be on reserve either way.

As for FO's, I haven't looked at the new contract that closely, I just voted no and said F it. But, I believe the rates are now the same for both the 50 and 70. If that's the case FO's will go very junior. Especially since a handful of the senior 70 fo's 7-8 year guys and gals bit the bullet and upgraded. That being said, with jfk upgrades dipping into the 4 year seniority area I would imagine a lot of 3 and 4 year FO's will avoid the seat lock.

When the settlement claim is paid out, look for attrition back to the levels it was near the end of bankruptcy for a while. I heard that HR has recieved 250 pilot records requests in the last month.

So all in all I think the lifers will fly the 70 and the FO's will be very junior and new hires. If/when the MCO and GSO bases close that may change the FO list and shake up a few things since displaced fo's would not have a seat lock. It's going to be a rough summer for staffing, that I can promise.

 

[Beergut]

It will probably go junior at first until they get more than a few of them on line. The 700 at ASA is still junior because the schedules suck so bad. However, that is starting to change because the schedules for the 200 suck just as bad now and more people are making the jump because if your schedule is going to suck anyway you might as well get paid more for it.(It actually goes from very senior to junior with the mid-tier guys staying on the 200)

 

[wmuflyguy]

There are stil displaced captains for the 15 a/c that we gave to skywest and ASA. So they have first rights to any vacancy regardless of seniority. Now keep in mind we took a pretty big paycut and the CVG base was downsized, so there are 7-8 year 50 seat captains on reserve in CVG. Some will probably bid the 70 vacancies for the raise since they will be on reserve either way.

As for FO's, I haven't looked at the new contract that closely, I just voted no and said F it. But, I believe the rates are now the same for both the 50 and 70. If that's the case FO's will go very junior. Especially since a handful of the senior 70 fo's 7-8 year guys and gals bit the bullet and upgraded. That being said, with jfk upgrades dipping into the 4 year seniority area I would imagine a lot of 3 and 4 year FO's will avoid the seat lock.

When the settlement claim is paid out, look for attrition back to the levels it was near the end of bankruptcy for a while. I heard that HR has recieved 250 pilot records requests in the last month.

So all in all I think the lifers will fly the 70 and the FO's will be very junior and new hires. If/when the MCO and GSO bases close that may change the FO list and shake up a few things since displaced fo's would not have a seat lock. It's going to be a rough summer for staffing, that I can promise.

The 70/76 seater pays slightly more for FO's. Both FO scales are like 59.7%(or somewhere around there) of CA pay.

 

[Speedtape]

Just curious if what your thoughts are on how the group will bid the next few times around.

That is probably hard to determine in the context of your question, but it will go high within the displaced group. Roughly 130 positions on the 50 will go away and 130 positions on the 70/90 will materialize. It will probably go senior within each position (Captain and F/O) within that group that is displaced. However, some of those midrangers may decide that QOL is better by remaining on the 50 versus switching to the larger airframe.

 

[BenderGonzales]

Shiny jet syndrome will prevail. Those whose ego rests on the size of the tube they fly will flock to this thing.

The passengers, in the meantime, will look down that loooong tiny fuselage, (imagine a jet-powered Metroliner) and pine for the days that a 100 seat airplane meant DC9, 737-200, or F100 (variable wide-bodies by comparison).

 

[Blucher]

Shiny jet syndrome will prevail. Those whose ego rests on the size of the tube they fly will flock to this thing.

The passengers, in the meantime, will look down that loooong tiny fuselage, (imagine a jet-powered Metroliner) and pine for the days that a 100 seat airplane meant DC9, 737-200, or F100 (variable wide-bodies by comparison).

I can only guess you meant "veritable," not "variable." Other than that, I agree 100% with your assessment.

-Blucher

 

[PA44Jockey]

I'm thinking with attrition and upgrades in JFK that many 3 to 4 year FO's will hang out and wait for the upgrade like you said. Possibly this will lighten the blow on the 70 guys that got raped in the last agreement. A bunch of junior FO's will come in below them and increase their QOL.

 

[dal757]

how long is upgrade currently running at Comair? Do ya'll think it will begin to drop?

 

[captainv]

how long is upgrade currently running at Comair? Do ya'll think it will begin to drop?

4.5 years, but they keep delaying the classes. apparently JFK is supposed to be fat with captains this summer, so they might delay classes again. of course, the minute the bankruptcy claims go through, we'll lose a number of guys. this will come as an absolute surprise to planning, and staffing will suffer until they can jam us through the sim.

still no growth at Comair, but with the attrition after the bankruptcy claim, there will be more upgrades.

 

[AvJunke]

They cancelled the latest vacancy bid after pushing back upgrade classes a few times. The bid basically rescinds 30 CVG CA positions, 60 JFK CA positions, 30 CVG 70 seat FO positions, and ten GSO FO positons. Sweet! Did planning get the memo about a bankruptcy settlement being paid out next month? What a great company.

 

[DrewBlows]

Did planning get the memo about a bankruptcy settlement being paid out next month? What a great company.

Yeah, except the memo said that it won't be paid out next month due to "administrative problems". In other words, "lets try to keep these suckers around as long as possible".

I'm a little bitter since most of the CR7 FOs would have been junior to me and I would have been able to finally hold a line or at least a weekend every once and a while.

 

[dal757]

does this only affect captain upgrades or will they slow newhire classes as well?

 

[wrigley23]

What a clown show. If the bankruptcy payout ever shows up (when the people who aren't entitled to it give up the ghost), forecasting and planning will seriously regret the vacancy cancellation. They can't look more than a month ahead. I highly suspect that another reason is that there is not enough sim time available, apparently people are going to YUL again, so good luck bringing on another airframe. I bet they'll have to defer 900 deliveries due to staffing. But hey, shiny new jets makes everyone feel better!

 

[Heavy Set]

I thought these new CR9s were going to replace one for one 50 seat RJs? That wouldn't cause any growth.

 

[spinproof]

What a clown show. If the bankruptcy payout ever shows up (when the people who aren't entitled to it give up the ghost),

...you're the only clown I see in the show! The sooner you leave the better for everyone. The only people not entitled are non- DUES PAYERS!!!

 

[Hovernut]

does this only affect captain upgrades or will they slow newhire classes as well?

I was in CA u/g class when they came in and announced the cx. They also said NH classes will cease after the June 4 class. Hopefully, this is all temporary.

I'm sure they had a bean-counting party to determine the minimum impact to the Co.'s bottom-line as to closing of MCO/GSO, 900s, u/g's, displacements. As soon as the base closures are announced, I imagine another vacancy bid will be out for bid. Pretty sh*tty situation!

 

[DX Rick]

I was in a December NH class. Myself and the other guys in my class were awarded the 70 seater to begin in June, which was pushed back to July and then August. So yes, they will go Junior.

But myself and about 8 other guys from my class, withdrew our bids to go to the 70 seater, just to get out of JFK sooner....2 months sooner. Guys are willing to stay in the 50 seater, if it gets them out of JFK ASAP. Spending 2-3 hours at a time, waiting for a gate or to take off while you commute to and from JFK is a blast.

The pay difference is only $2 an hour. I figured that I would be able to hold a line in the 50 (fairly soon) in CVG, and have a chance to break 75/hours a month. Make more money that I would in the 70, and avoid sitting reserve for the next 3 decades.

 

[bvt1151]

Shiny jet syndrome will prevail. Those whose ego rests on the size of the tube they fly will flock to this thing.

The passengers, in the meantime, will look down that loooong tiny fuselage, (imagine a jet-powered Metroliner) and pine for the days that a 100 seat airplane meant DC9, 737-200, or F100 (variable wide-bodies by comparison).

Even with the substantial increase in pay, the 700 was a junior aircraft for a very long time.

 

[DrewBlows]

The pay difference is only $2 an hour. I figured that I would be able to hold a line in the 50 (fairly soon) in CVG, and have a chance to break 75/hours a month. Make more money that I would in the 70, and avoid sitting reserve for the next 3 decades.

They are taking 14 50 seaters away and most of the people displaced from MCO and GSO will be coming back to CVG and most of those people are above your seniority. Bottom line, the schedules in the 50 will get worse while the 70 schedules will get better. I'm guessing, since three and four year (and to a lesser extent second year) FOs will be unwilling to take a 12 month seat lock to go to the 70, it will go very junior. You may find yourself in a situation where you bid back to CVG in the 50 and get displaced into the 70. Time will tell.

Of course my predictions would be very good for me since I'm a very junior 70 FO (which also means I'd hold a line as a 50 FO in any base:crying.