Here's my view. Southwest is in business for the for the benefit of employees and the customers. Delta is in business for the enrichment of a handful of executives.
Please, please tell me I'm wrong.
Delta's solution for losing money...concentrate on first class and international. Let Southwest have domestic. Close bases (ie, Dallas) - essentially give up rather than compete.
Farm out over 50% of flying to regionals (someone is making tena of millions on that).
Point is, Southwest makes money, pays much more, and has no regionals. What happens to all the money we "save" by utilizing small planes and paying less?
I just need to know someone is TRYING and there is HOPE.
Honestly, not flambaiting...I've got another 25 years to give Delta, and I don't want to throw it away.
Hmmm, where to start? Do you expect Delta to just hand the pilots a contract now, a year before the ammendable date? With high oil now, that may not be the best idea. DALPA got screwed during our joint contract because oil was at $130 a barrel then. DL still plans to make money this year overall, but when you have a large base in Japan, and it has an earthquake and nuclear reactor stuff is still being worked on, it can't help. It is slowly getting better there, and DL yeilds are going up as we speak there. If an earthquake hit SFO and had the same damage, a lot of us would be hurting more than the others. SWA has an OAK base, along with VA at SFO with UAL. They would all be hurting more than DL at that point. That is the way it goes.
DL executives do make big bucks. Their pay is back to pre-BK levels. They know this, and they know that the pilots are not. It won't be a cake walk, but when the Airtran guys get a huge raise, and the Delta execs always used them as an example as to why they couldn't justify a huge raise for the pilots, it can only help the pilots' cause.
Southwest has increased their domestic presence, because that is all they could do. Their own management wanted Volaris and Westjet to do their international flying at one time. In comes Airtran with some INTL experience, and they will start more of that type of flying. But, very doubtful they will go big INTL with bigger planes. GUP may dream of that, but as soon as SWA announces that, Easyjet and Ryanair will beat them to the punch, and beat them up. They own Europe for the budget travellers.
DL Domestic was downsized with RJs just prior to BK, and more after BK. Fred Greed thought businessmen wanted frequency, which in reality they wanted legroom and a place to work. Since DL got new management, they have moved more domestic into the framework, primarily because we got a few more types of planes that could be useful on shorter segments. Before NWA, the smallest plane we had recently was the MD88, and then the 737-700. Those 737s were launched to Central American routes and SNA, and that was that. Now DL has DC9s and A319s also doing domestic stuff out of ATL, and seeing places like Flint (my favorite), Grand Rapids, and other places mainline abandoned long ago. MD90s will start to fill in for the DC9s starting next year (not this year as previously planned), and RJs are leaving the fleet at a fast pace now, thanks to oil and Comair going away. We announced 12 more E175s for Compass, but most of that fell through. As I stated Comair will be shrunk to 44 total planes, which is amazing. The NYC Shuttle got A319s, which fit that market better. Prior management put certain planes on routes that couldn't sustain them. Like Song 757s on East Coast North and South routes. Those planes were too big. Now with the mixed fleet, A319s, 737-800s, and MD88s are flying a lot of those routes, and are probably better suited. There were 737-800s doing JFK to LAX against UAL and AA 767s. That didn't last. Things are being moved around to produce the most revenue. Still, this airline is a Spring and Summer airline, and those are the two quarters that make the most money, and carry DL throughout the year. It has always been that way. Do I think DL uses too many RJs? Sure I do. Is that number getting smaller? Yes. High Oil is taking care of that problem. Did Delta give up on DFW? Maybe. Airlines give up on hubs and create new ones, through mergers too. SEA is an example of that, now a fairly large crew base. And I don't see DALPA ever giving in to SCOPE again, since the last time was BK, and prior to that was a lesson I think everyone learned. I have heard rumors of C-Series planes being looked at in the 100 seat range, and if Delta wants to fly planes that size to smaller markets, they will have to go to Dalpa and get a pay rate for mainline pilots. Everyone left at DL, from NWA to DL premerger, have seen the distruction that RJs have brought to the network, and again I don't see them voting anything away again. Pre-BK there were a lot of pilots at DL that were so far out of the loop, doing INTL only for 20 years, that they didn't care. They are mostly gone now. That is the truth.
So who is trying to help that problem you were talking about? I have confidence in DL management. The guys in charge of route management have found great places for the different types of planes, and as stated RJs are being parked. But, there are some contracts that will have to run their course, and then maybe we'll see if they are renewed. We would love to see an all mainline fleet someday, and maybe we can aim for the start of that during these contract talks starting next year. I think DL pilots will get a big raise to match or beat SWA's (thanks to Airtran getting it too), and there will be improvements in other areas, including better scope protection. Yes, there was a loss this last quarter, and there was one almost the same size during the same one last year. Then Delta went on to have a huge Q2 and 3, and even though fuel is higher now, fare hikes have also stuck. When Asia stuff rebounds soon, DL will be in better shape, and analysts and DL management still predict a profit for the full year. It's amazing Q1 wasn't worse, and Wall Street thought the same today. And wages and benefits have to negotiated, which will happen sooner than later, and then pilots at Southwest (especially ones in the bottom after their SLI) will be looking at DL's retirmement numbers and movement and will start throwing apps DL's way. Stagnation there will be huge thanks to their lower scheduled retirement numbers. That's a fact, ask GUP.
Bye Bye---General Lee
