Who will be Southwest's merger partner?

[DesertFalcon]

If, NWA and DAL merge, and CAL and UAL merge.

What will become of Southwest?
What company is going to marry Southwest?

Any ideas?

 

[General Lee]

If, NWA and DAL merge, and CAL and UAL merge.

What will become of Southwest?
What company is going to marry Southwest?

Any ideas?

Just a guess, but I would say Airtran, but only with their 737-700s and some gates.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[328dude]

Maybe, but when the Delta and NWA merger happens, I think ATL would be pretty wrapped up by the combined carrier in regards to market share. Not sure WN want's that fight.

 

[flyboyzz1]

I heard it was going to be Skywest

 

[ultrarunner]

Just a guess, but I would say Airtran, but only with their 737-700s and some gates.

Bye Bye--General Lee

In theory, yeah, I suppose that might make "some" sense.

But Wallstreet has essentially thrown the SWA stockholder under the bus. With the dismal 'return on investment' (which has been a LOSS) for the last two years, I don't see anyone loaning SWA money.

That kind of performance for much longer means a BIG shake up.

With how SWA works from a philosophical stand-point, I think they're just going to have to sit back and watch.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

In theory, yeah, I suppose that might make "some" sense.

But Wallstreet has essentially thrown the SWA stockholder under the bus. With the dismal 'return on investment' (which has been a LOSS) for the last two years, I don't see anyone loaning SWA money.

That kind of performance for much longer means a BIG shake up.

With how SWA works from a philosophical stand-point, I think they're just going to have to sit back and watch.

Do you guys actually read the stuff you write? SWA bought back like 1billion dollars of their own stock. Airtran total outstanding stock is worth about 500 million. They could buy us or trade stock for us and it would barely be a blip on their radar. Nothing makes me laugh more than the money experts on here.

 

[Lear70]

Just a guess, but I would say Airtran, but only with their 737-700s and some gates.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Unlikely.

You're talking about the fragmentation of the airline and the shareholders would want a LOT more money than SWA is likely to pony up to sign off on that kind of a deal.

We're not one of the companies that's worth more in pieces than as a whole...

Nice try, though... I know you'd like to eliminate your biggest competitor in Atlanta, but you'll have to do better than that.

 

[vixin]

Do you guys actually read the stuff you write? SWA bought back like 1billion dollars of their own stock. Airtran total outstanding stock is worth about 500 million. They could buy us or trade stock for us and it would barely be a blip on their radar. Nothing makes me laugh more than the money experts on here.

It was 1.8 billion of stock. But what is a few hundred million.

 

[bleagle]

Maybe, but when the Delta and NWA merger happens, I think ATL would be pretty wrapped up by the combined carrier in regards to market share. Not sure WN want's that fight.

I'm not so sure about that.... I think that the new DAL/NWA would have to give up some gates in ATL...

Anti>trust issues are probably one of the many hurdles facing this new co.

 

[ultrarunner]

Do you guys actually read the stuff you write? SWA bought back like 1billion dollars of their own stock. Airtran total outstanding stock is worth about 500 million. They could buy us or trade stock for us and it would barely be a blip on their radar. Nothing makes me laugh more than the money experts on here.

HA! I'm no money expert, that's for sure, and yes, SWA has a stock buy-back program in place. Find a shareholder and ask what that's done for them the last several years!

 

[Lear70]

Well, that depends on the investor, doesn't it?

Southwest may have poor stock performance for the shareholders, but I'm quite certain the credit lending institutions are quite happy with Southwest's performance, seeing as they pay their bills on time as far as I can tell.

Don't think Southwest is going to have problems finding lenders anytime soon.

 

[ultrarunner]

Well, that depends on the investor, doesn't it?

Southwest may have poor stock performance for the shareholders, but I'm quite certain the credit lending institutions are quite happy with Southwest's performance, seeing as they pay their bills on time as far as I can tell.

Don't think Southwest is going to have problems finding lenders anytime soon.

I suppose Lear, but ultimately, the consistent eroding of shareholder value ultimately results in bad things happening at the corporate level.

At some point, T Rowe, Manning-Napier and Primcap are not going to tolerate the dismal performance....

And then folks will start bailing off the mutual fund side as well...

It's sure interesting to watch....

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

The CEO of SWA said that SWA WILL merge with someone IF any mergers occur. The CEO said that SWA is too small on their own, IF any mergers go through.

cliff
YIP

 

[ultrarunner]

Well ATP, that may be the thinking...and it's real easy to say that stuff. My take is that IF SWA does team up with someone, SWA must be thinking of a drastic change in their philosophy....which maybe they'll do.

 

[General Lee]

Unlikely.

You're talking about the fragmentation of the airline and the shareholders would want a LOT more money than SWA is likely to pony up to sign off on that kind of a deal.

We're not one of the companies that's worth more in pieces than as a whole...

Nice try, though... I know you'd like to eliminate your biggest competitor in Atlanta, but you'll have to do better than that.

How would that eliminate our biggest competitior? It would allow SWA into ATL. I never said they would sell every ATL gate? They just might not want the 717s.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Lear70]

How would that eliminate our biggest competitior? It would allow SWA into ATL. I never said they would sell every ATL gate? They just might not want the 717s.


Bye Bye--General Lee

Because WE are your biggest competitor in and out of ATL,,,

Although, you'd also get to go head-to-head with Southwest, which I'm certain wouldn't thrill senior DAL management.

I'm certain no one wants our 717's... it's probably what kept someone from coming after us before. The problem is selling them to someone who wants what we owe on them.

The only way you're getting airTran's 737's by themselves is if the company liquidated or, for some reason, agreed to sell off ALL the 737's and keep operating as AAI with just the 717's (unlikely).

Otherwise, you've got to sell them and take a BIG loss. Southwest isn't exactly in the habit of doing that, historically-speaking.

 

[crj410]

At the rate at which the airline industry is going with various airlines failing, I don't think that WN needs to merge with anyone. Cheaper to pick up gates and A/C at fire sales than to go through a merger. With the price of Oil going up, it's better to stand on the side lines and watch. If anyone has the cash to aquire someone quick it would be WN. Better to be a little cautious than to be hasty and waste valuable resources.

 

[Cooperd0g]

Alaska is my hugely uneducated guess. More west coast presence, especially the northwest. Mostly 737 fleet.

 

[ofacegangsta]

I thought Mr. Kelly said "acquire", not merge. That would make a pretty big difference.

 

[climb2slow]

I predict Frontier! Or maybe that's wishful thinking...ssshhhhh....

 

[Jim Smyth]

My guess is American Airlines.

 

[vixin]

Climb for some odd reason I can never read your post. Didnt they used to bounce though?

 

[Ky.BrownBourbn]

At the rate at which the airline industry is going with various airlines failing, I don't think that WN needs to merge with anyone. Cheaper to pick up gates and A/C at fire sales than to go through a merger. With the price of Oil going up, it's better to stand on the side lines and watch. If anyone has the cash to aquire someone quick it would be WN. Better to be a little cautious than to be hasty and waste valuable resources.

Bingo!

I know the SHARKS (not just ours) are circling waiting for the blood in a couple of places! WN stopped or slowed down hiring, then 3 classes in April, plus supposedly 2 more in May (equals about 125 more bodies)...Something's Up! Then heard delayed retirement of Aircraft (300's) until 4 qtr.

This whole thing is going to get interesting! BUT mergers make no since in this market...When the dust settles, everything's for sale...Unfortunately!

Good Luck to all!
KBB

 

[alaskaplt]

Alaska is my hugely uneducated guess. More west coast presence, especially the northwest. Mostly 737 fleet.

I wish. Doubt it though.

 

[jester757]

Because WE are your biggest competitor in and out of ATL,,,

Although, you'd also get to go head-to-head with Southwest, which I'm certain wouldn't thrill senior DAL management.

I'm certain no one wants our 717's... it's probably what kept someone from coming after us before. The problem is selling them to someone who wants what we owe on them.

The only way you're getting airTran's 737's by themselves is if the company liquidated or, for some reason, agreed to sell off ALL the 737's and keep operating as AAI with just the 717's (unlikely).

Otherwise, you've got to sell them and take a BIG loss. Southwest isn't exactly in the habit of doing that, historically-speaking.

What is airtran's contract have in it about fragmintation? Anything to prevent it?

 

[PCL_128]

The fragmentation language isn't the best. I wouldn't count on it being worth very much if push came to shove.

 

[ron burgundy]

Colgan!!!!

 

[mvedepo]

I predict Frontier! Or maybe that's wishful thinking...ssshhhhh....

why would you want that? Southwest doesn't want an Airbus. If they bought F9 they would liquidate the company to some foreign airline and just take the gates.

 

[Lear70]

The fragmentation language isn't the best. I wouldn't count on it being worth very much if push came to shove.

Fragmentation language simply says that the company will "use their best efforts to ensure the pilots go with the airline", blah blah blah. You're right, if it wasn't for the recent legislation, I'd be much more concerned.

If the company is sold whole, the pilots go.

If the company is parted out while still a viable entity, the pilots have to go with any deal that is considered a large portion of the operation taken as a large combination of aircraft and gates to a single buyer.

The only thing that would let them break the company up and kick the pilots to the curb would be complete liquidation and someone picking up the scraps, a la Aloha and ATA.

Not going to happen quite yet. Relax.

 

[airlinepilot]

When I was in Dallas for training a couple of months ago we were told that if we ACQUIRE another airline it would not be Frontier. The opinion of the company leadership was that Frontier had only 90 cash on hand and would be in BK soon. The leadership said why pay for something when you can pickup the part you want (gates) in a fire sale. They also said "use your head", it's not going to be a legacy. It's going to be a LCC that would be like us and get us into ATL, MSP, LGA, etc......sorta pointed to Air Tran. I would not be surprised if our leadership just waited around to see who has $$$ problems which would make it easier and cheaper to acquire.

as for you Unltrarunner.......your posts speaks volumes about your knowledge and understand of SWA and the industry as a whole