Where's Andy? Questions on Credit and Airlines

[~~~^~~~]

Andy's got a better than average grasp of the fundamentals and objectivity.

Panic selling, or buying, it rarely a good move. This market is so volitile that there is not time for most traders to do anything other than run along towards the back of the herd.

We all saw how a old and irrelevant news article sent UAUA into a tailspin. Things need to slow down.

 

[lowecur]

My guess is Andy is a follower of Martin (the sky is falling) Weiss. He and his have been predicting what is going to happen for years. His is one of many newsletters I subscribe to, and I use his rating service to check on the banks where I keep my $$$$.

If only half the stuff he is talking about comes true, we are on the cusp of a depression. There will probably be a run on the banks in the next 6 months (only $300B cash in US, so it will go fast, till they print more), so keep at least 5 grand in cash in a safety deposit box or a home safe ($50's & $20's - no $100's.) You will be limited to weekly withdrawals of probably no more than $500 from ATM's. Put your $$$ in large institutions (as the little guys, even Wealth Management A+Banks are losing large depositors to Treasuries). Use at least 4 or 5 banks, if it's necessary to withdraw more than $500 in any one week....US Bancorp, Wells & Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi, ....in that order of strength. Hold off on Goldman and Morgan till we see what they buy and how many depositors stay.

It will be tough for a while, but Asia/IndoChina will be the catalyst for a new growth period. Watch the money flows to those equities for a key to when to invest. Whatever you do, don't invest now...wait until the dust settles from this deal.

imp:​

 

[SkiFishFly]

How does all this affect money in credit unions?

Are they still safe?

 

[bravodude]

Yes. I started a hedge fund in Aug 2008 with $600K of seed capital, so I'm the problem. Let's ignore the real causes of where we're at and blame it on hedge funds. You don't have the slightest clue what a hedge fund is and how they work.
Warren Buffett? You have NO IDEA how much trouble Warren's in. Any idiot can make money in a bull market. It requires brains to adjust to a bear market and make money. Before we get out the other side of this mess, I expect 'ol Warren to have sold off most of his assets. Warren is NOT making those statements because he wants the country to do well; he's doing it to save his own skin. Just like Bill Gross of PIMCO. Next time you listen to an 'authority,' you'd better ask yourself what's in it for them.

If you're going to jump into a thread, at least have a basic understanding of the subject matter.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day!

 

[~~~^~~~]

How does all this affect money in credit unions?

Are they still safe?

I've been wondering and the answer is, it depends.

My money in the Delta Community Credit Union appears safe, although you do not more than $100,000 in any one institution. They are FDIC insured to $100,000 and $250,000 on some retirement accounts.

Delta Community Credit Union is leveraged 6.6 to 1.

 

[~~~^~~~]

It will be tough for a while, but Asia/IndoChina will be the catalyst for a new growth period.

imp:​

Lowcur, the problem there is the Muslim populations. Hard to make money when your employees are fleeing for their lives.

That is a little too dramatic, but my CFO Bro. in Law is currently under a death threat. Neighbor who just came back from running operations in the Philippines got tired of living under 24/7 security detail and armed motorcades so his wife could go to the mall. "Acquisitions" have a whole different meaning in the Muslim World.

Wonder what is going to happen to the Vegas of the Middle East without girls, gambling and booze? That whole deck of cards is stacked on credit. Can Dubai still play?

 

[bravodude]

Not sure the hedge funds are the problem, certainly not the entire problem, the underlying fundamentals of the companies are. You could short stocks all day long, but if the companies are strong, then you will not make much of profit, nor really cause any harm.

Bigger problem was the fact that many of the failed and failing companies had very little disclosure, and every day, they released just a little more bad news.
Kind of like the bandaid analogy, which is better to get ift off, one sharp pull or ten little tugs? In this case, the tugs brought the stocks lower and lower , untill it became worthless.

Not to worry though, there will be plenty of money made in this market, just not for the average joe.

I agree wit you! I find it funny that people like andy are on this forum preaching doom and gloom all the while they start a hedge fund and profit from the fear they impose on the average joe.

 

[cybourg10]

Looks like the bailout plan will not pass.......so what is plan b?

 

[Andy]

Looks like the bailout plan will not pass.......so what is plan b?

1. Force all off-balance sheet "assets" back onto the balance sheet, and force the valuation models and identification of individual assets out of Level 3 and into 10Qs and 10Ks. Do it now.
2. Force all OTC derivatives onto a regulated exchange similar to that used by listed options in the equity markets. This permanently defuses the derivatives time bomb. Give market participants 90 days; any that are not listed in 90 days are declared void; let the participants sue each other if they can't prove capital adequacy.
3. Force leverage by all institutions to no more than 12:1. The SEC intentionally dropped broker/dealer leverage limits in 2004; prior to that date 12:1 was the limit. Every firm that has failed had double or more the leverage of that former 12:1 limit. Enact this with a six month time limit and require 1/6th of the excess taken down monthly.

 

[lowecur]

Lowcur, the problem there is the Muslim populations. Hard to make money when your employees are fleeing for their lives.

That is a little too dramatic, but my CFO Bro. in Law is currently under a death threat. Neighbor who just came back from running operations in the Philippines got tired of living under 24/7 security detail and armed motorcades so his wife could go to the mall. "Acquisitions" have a whole different meaning in the Muslim World.

Wonder what is going to happen to the Vegas of the Middle East without girls, gambling and booze? That whole deck of cards is stacked on credit. Can Dubai still play?

My bad. Need a Geo lesson. Let's just go with India, China, and much of the Far East Region......including NZ, & Australia (China luvs both of them).

imp:​