atpcliff
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2001
- Posts
- 4,260
Hi!
Stats:
U.S. 2001 2006 % Change
Student Starts 61,839 61,448 -1
CFIs 82,875 91,343 +10
Commercial 120,502 117,610 -2
ATP 144,702 141,935 -2
The above growth, or lack of it, worked, because Commercial Airline growth in the US was minimal-Domestic Capacity was up only 1.9%
This is when things get really bad:
U.S. 2006 2020 % Change
Student Pilots 84866 100,181 +18
Commercial 117,610 130,590 +11
ATP 141,935 145,655 +3
Total Pilots 597,109 651,752 +9
Comm PAX 768mill 1.2bill +56%
RPMs (trillions) .79 1.4 +77%
Comm Aircraft 7,626 11,203 +47%
So, we (the pilots) are going to support an increase in Commercial Aircraft of 47%, and increase in Commercial PAX of 56%, and an increase in RPMs of 77%, with ONLY an increase in the number of ATPs of 3%, and an increase in Commercial Pilots of just 11%? How is this going to work???
And, it just gets worse:
Globally 2006 2020 % Change
Comm Acft #s 17,000 30,000 76%
Commercial PAX growth per year is forecast to be 5.3% PER YEAR, while freight growth is forecast to be 5.9% PER YEAR. All this while the US has 3% more ATPs over the WHOLE 14 YEAR PERIOD.
Remember, that we, the US, is currently the ONLY country that produces any number of excess pilots. EVERYWHERE ELSE is experiencing more airline seats opening than the numbers of commercial pilots they can produce.
Here's some more interesting info:
U.S.
China, India, and Worldwide Growth:
Through 2020:
China's GDP will quadruple.
1/2 of the World's GDP growth will be
1-China: yearly GDP growth of 6%
2- US: yearly GDP growth of 2.9%
3-India: yearly GDP growth of 5.9%
China will be the same economic size as the US by 2020.
What does this mean for aviation, and the pilot shortage?
Asia's freighter fleet will increase by 340%, to 419 aircraft, by 2020.
The top 5 countries buying new aircraft through 2020 will be:
1-US
2-China
3-Great Britain
4-Germany
5-India
And, to top it all off:
China is currently producing 1,000 pilots per year.
India was producing 150 per year, but that was before 2 of its 5 flight training schools had to close because all of their instructors were hired by the Indian airlines. Sound familiar?
The pilot shortage Tsunami is just beginning.
When American gets around to hiring, they will be the last ones, with UPS/FedEx/SWA already hiring again, and all the other majors already hiring. They will get a much lower return of furloughees than they expect, and the number and quality of applicants will probably shock them.
What does this mean for you and I?
HOLD OUT FOR MORE PAY!!!
Good luck to you!
cliff
ABQ
Stats:
U.S. 2001 2006 % Change
Student Starts 61,839 61,448 -1
CFIs 82,875 91,343 +10
Commercial 120,502 117,610 -2
ATP 144,702 141,935 -2
The above growth, or lack of it, worked, because Commercial Airline growth in the US was minimal-Domestic Capacity was up only 1.9%
This is when things get really bad:
U.S. 2006 2020 % Change
Student Pilots 84866 100,181 +18
Commercial 117,610 130,590 +11
ATP 141,935 145,655 +3
Total Pilots 597,109 651,752 +9
Comm PAX 768mill 1.2bill +56%
RPMs (trillions) .79 1.4 +77%
Comm Aircraft 7,626 11,203 +47%
So, we (the pilots) are going to support an increase in Commercial Aircraft of 47%, and increase in Commercial PAX of 56%, and an increase in RPMs of 77%, with ONLY an increase in the number of ATPs of 3%, and an increase in Commercial Pilots of just 11%? How is this going to work???
And, it just gets worse:
Globally 2006 2020 % Change
Comm Acft #s 17,000 30,000 76%
Commercial PAX growth per year is forecast to be 5.3% PER YEAR, while freight growth is forecast to be 5.9% PER YEAR. All this while the US has 3% more ATPs over the WHOLE 14 YEAR PERIOD.
Remember, that we, the US, is currently the ONLY country that produces any number of excess pilots. EVERYWHERE ELSE is experiencing more airline seats opening than the numbers of commercial pilots they can produce.
Here's some more interesting info:
U.S.
The FAA is planning on 6300 VLJs flying by 2020, while the current number is basically 0.
China, India, and Worldwide Growth:
Through 2020:
China's GDP will quadruple.
1/2 of the World's GDP growth will be
1-China: yearly GDP growth of 6%
2- US: yearly GDP growth of 2.9%
3-India: yearly GDP growth of 5.9%
China will be the same economic size as the US by 2020.
What does this mean for aviation, and the pilot shortage?
Remember, by 2020, China will be the same economic size as the US!
Asia's freighter fleet will increase by 340%, to 419 aircraft, by 2020.
The top 5 countries buying new aircraft through 2020 will be:
1-US
2-China
3-Great Britain
4-Germany
5-India
And, to top it all off:
China is currently producing 1,000 pilots per year.
India was producing 150 per year, but that was before 2 of its 5 flight training schools had to close because all of their instructors were hired by the Indian airlines. Sound familiar?
The pilot shortage Tsunami is just beginning.
When American gets around to hiring, they will be the last ones, with UPS/FedEx/SWA already hiring again, and all the other majors already hiring. They will get a much lower return of furloughees than they expect, and the number and quality of applicants will probably shock them.
What does this mean for you and I?
HOLD OUT FOR MORE PAY!!!
Good luck to you!
cliff
ABQ
