When is the predicted time majors such as United, American, Delta, Northwest, Continental, Hawaiian would bring back all of thier furloughed pilots and in how many years would we see new hires. I am very curious to see if I would start training earlier.
My guess on Delta is 2 years from now to start recalling the 1060 left on furlough. Depending on the hiring rate, that will take 2-3 years at least. So, I'd ballpark 5-6 years from now before DAL starts hiring again off the street.
i know one pilot who soloed in 1985 went to college got all the ratings and was told he was crazy to even try.....18 years later he is a SWA FO!!
Moral of the story is to follow your dreams, no one can guarantee what the future holds but yourself.
American has over 2000 on furlough. More to come. Recalls (IMHO) will not happen until 2005. Then, AMR has said they can only retrain 40 per month. That seems very low considering they once hired more than 100 a month. IMHO, it will be at least 8 years until all are offered recall. There are obviously too many variables such as, the economy, more terrorist attacks, how many furloughees take better jobs (ie. JetBlue, SWA, Airtran, AWA, ATA, etc.) To sum it up; it's gunna be a LONG time until they hire off the street!
In August, the first class of new hires will start at one of the majors, by June of 2008 it will look like the summer of 1997. Check the cycles of the lay offs in 83, 93,
I was thinking of the legacy air lines UAL, DAL, CAL etc. The old time majors, the places everyone wanted to go, they used use airlines like SWA, ATA, even JB as stepping stones to get that "Legacy Major" job.
At Continental, we have a new system bid (for seats and aircraft) supposedly coming out this winter, to become effective next summer.
Word is, that up to 200 of the 400 furloughees are going to be recalled on this bid. Retirements are going to hit a major upswing through 2008, hitting 300+ for a year or two (a lot at an airline with 3800 pilots nowadays).
More word from the CalExpress guys is that up to half of their furloughees aren't coming back - they've been at other places for two or more years and would have to take a pay and major seniority cut to come back. Don't blame 'em...
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