Whats with all of the sudden trouble?

[JetMonkey]

What good is a payraise if you don't have a job?

 

[IBNAV8R]

True, but the break-even load factor on a mainline flight is significantly lower than a regional flight.

Doesn't mean squat unless you meet and exceed that load factor.

Suppose the BE load factor is 70% on an RJ. According to your numbers, a generic mainline aircraft would be about 65%.

1. It is likely the type of actual aircraft sent into a small market would have a much higher relative CASM when compared to the RJ - still lower.

2. If the market is historically 45 people that need to go from A to B at a given time, it'd be colossally stupid to send in the wrong airplane.

I haven't seen a 1/3 full mainline aircraft since the 80s...

That's because they use the right-sized aircraft - which is my point.

 

[FR8mastr]

You guys have it all wrong...

With the upcoming pilot shortage, the airlines are being proactive by making sure there are plenty of pilots available when the shortage hits.

It's management 101

If you need more pilots, furlough some existing ones, then there will be more to hire. Problem solved!

I think some large bonuses are in order.

 

[$$$4nothin]

Skywest has a cost-per-seat-mile of about 9.1 cents
Delta is only 7.8

That is excluding fuel, which makes regional flights even more expensive per seat mile

Regional airlines have lost most of their usefulness now.

This is true. However when you are only booking 30-50 seats out of the small town destinations you still need a smaller aircraft. Regional carriers will always serve a purpose.

 

[Redtailer]

This is true. However when you are only booking 30-50 seats out of the small town destinations you still need a smaller aircraft. Regional carriers will always serve a purpose.

You guys are taking a very simplistic way of looking at things. It's not as simple as saying X market will only support Y load factor.

First off on a CASM basis, mainline aircraft will always beat the snot out of RJs. It's just a function of the seats available versus how much the plane costs to operate. As the aircraft gets smaller CASM goes up exponentially. With a lower CASM comes a lower ticket price. Lower ticket price means market stimulation which increases the load factor. The dynamics for each market is different. So while an RJ may fly a market at 70% load factor it's possible for a mainline aircraft to do the same thing with the same load factor and do it with a higher margin.

While there are a few select markets where the RJs make sense due to no market stimulation by and large they do it at an operating loss to the mainline carrier. Hence, 50 seaters are toast. 90 seaters barely make sense in some markets.

In summary, the regionals have no options except to shrink. How much and by how many is debatable, but it will happen.

 

[Speedtape]

Barrel costs are inching back up.

 

[aircombat]

Barrel costs are inching back up.

How about you let management worry about that.