What's going on at ATI?

[shooter]

.... Now that they finally have the system in ILN running reasonably well, I can't imagine they would risk overturning the apple cart by trying to integrate a third domestic carrier. .....quote]

I have to agree with this. All DHL will have to do is look at UPS and see that many carriers into one hub is a disaster. Speaking of UPS prior to their airline, didnt Ryan guys get screwed in that deal or something? I dont really know the whole story, only bits and pieces.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Now that they finally have the system in ILN running reasonably well, I can't imagine they would risk overturning the apple cart by trying to integrate a third domestic carrier.

As I understand it, most of the problem at ILN wasn't with the airline ops per se, it was getting the planes unloaded and the packages sorted. Now that the ramp and sort people are coming up to speed, it probably doesn't matter much from an operational standpoint whose planes they're unloading. Assuming they're all non-union, it probably doesn't matter much to them, either.

Trying to replace ABX or Astar overnight (or even quickly) would be practically impossible. Aside from the fact that it would cause a service meltdown (which they can't afford), no one that I can think of has the lift to replace either one.

Overnight, no. But 1 or 2 planes at a time over the course of a year, always with the promise that "it's just temporary" or "just this once, pretty please?" I don't see what's stopping them. How long has NWA been operating their 747 nightly to Anchorage, while Astar DC-8 crews have been sitting idle? Gemini has 7-year MD-11 Captains, while it's been longer than that since some Astar pilots have looked out a window they could call their own.

If you want to know the mindset of Deutschepost, may I suggest a quick read of "Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" by William Shirer? It explains a lot about how these guys operate.

DHL doesn't have a history of buying airplanes for anyone; they typically work with existing carriers.

I beg to differ. DHL has a LONG history of growing carriers to compete with their "own." All they need to do is offer a contract to an existing carrier, contingent upon them securing a certain number of airplanes. That carrier then goes to a bank or leasing company with contract in hand, where it's like money in the bank.

Do NOT underestimate these guys! You're not working for "Airways" anymore...

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

All DHL will have to do is look at UPS and see that many carriers into one hub is a disaster.

All DHL has to do is look at UPS and see that one carrier into one hub means $224/hr 727 Captains with full benefits, company-funded retirement (w/medical), and the spectre of a service-crippling job action every 7 years.

I don't remember if the Ryen guys got hosed specifically, but I knew a bunch who didn't get hired when UPS started picking the "low-hanging fruit" from the trees of their sub-contractors. I believe there was a class-action suit from which many received a settlement, but I'm not sure what the monetary amount was. Most of 'em kept working, if that tells you anything.

 

[shooter]

All DHL has to do is look at UPS and see that one carrier into one hub means $224/hr 727 Captains with full benefits, company-funded retirement (w/medical), and the spectre of a service-crippling job action every 7 years.

I don't remember if the Ryen guys got hosed specifically, but I knew a bunch who didn't get hired when UPS started picking the "low-hanging fruit" from the trees of their sub-contractors. I believe there was a class-action suit from which many received a settlement, but I'm not sure what the monetary amount was. Most of 'em kept working, if that tells you anything.

understood. what I meant by disaster was not pilot related. It was tracking, paperwork and having every speed dial full with different carriers ops control. kind of a "did I tell you that or did I say that to carrier B, C or D?" internal disaster.

thanks for more info on the UPS hiring history.

 

[xspud]

As I understand it, most of the problem at ILN wasn't with the airline ops per se, it was getting the planes unloaded and the packages sorted.

ILN is an express freight hub and DHL is competing with 2 other express companies that offer guaranteed delivery before 10:30AM or even earlier. Corporate customers cut very little slack for the express delivery carrier. The airline ops problems that I've seen involve recovery and extra sections, which is made dramatically more difficult by multiple carriers. In this business, even one canceled flight or one late delivery can cost an important contract. Multiple carriers add layers of management/ops people to go through to get something done, and multiplies the possible glitches.

Overnight, no. But 1 or 2 planes at a time over the course of a year, always with the promise that "it's just temporary" or "just this once, pretty please?" I don't see what's stopping them.

Contracturally, I don't think anything is. Astar may have some guarantees in it's ACMI. It costs DHL a little bit of money to park an ABX aircraft but it's not that much. For the reasons I gave above, I think it would be a bad operational decision to bring other operators into the domestic mix. I think DHL is going to be cautious about service problems for a while. I don't have any illusions, though. They might try piece-meal replacement. In that case, I expect a dramatic response from both pilot groups.

Right now, they have a couple of "international" flights out of ILN (NWA & Lufthansa). I expect we'll eventually see more and they won't be ABX or Astar. Probably Polar, could even be ATI.

I beg to differ. DHL has a LONG history of growing carriers to compete with their "own." All they need to do is offer a contract to an existing carrier, contingent upon them securing a certain number of airplanes. That carrier then goes to a bank or leasing company with contract in hand, where it's like money in the bank.

DHL needs lift and they sign up another carrier. And the flying overlaps so there's always opportunities for the existing carriers to shrink. But I'm not aware of one example where they offered a contract contingent on securing airplanes (Jade might be an exception). ABX has said that the DHL ACMI agreement doesn't pay enough to buy airplanes, not enough return on the investment. Our current batch of 767's was financed on the promise that we would earn more than the DHL ACMI.

Do NOT underestimate these guys! You're not working for "Airways" anymore...

I think we've had this conversation before. I'm of the opinion that DHL is well on their way to taking a back seat to UPS/FedEx in the world market. Until they change their ways, working for any carrier in the DHL system will be a mediocre job or worse, thanks to the lack of growth opportunities. Don't misunderstand me, I enjoy working for ABX (not Airways/Astar) and I appreciate what we have. But flying primarily for DHL as it currently exists means it will be a struggle to maintain what we have. I don't think anyone at either pilot group has any illusions about that. And I'm convinced that both groups are prepared to fight to protect what we have.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

ABX has said that the DHL ACMI agreement doesn't pay enough to buy airplanes, not enough return on the investment. Our current batch of 767's was financed on the promise that we would earn more than the DHL ACMI.

...flying primarily for DHL as it currently exists means it will be a struggle to maintain what we have. I don't think anyone at either pilot group has any illusions about that. And I'm convinced that both groups are prepared to fight to protect what we have.

I agree with most of what you said, not sure about a couple things though. I DO think that ABX is being very wise in not basing their future solely upon DHL, DC-8's, or airplanes without cargo doors. The problem in dealing with a company that forces you to compete solely on price is that there is no bottom...there's always somebody willing to do it cheaper, even if it means shortcuts must be taken. Look at how many subcontractors have flown for DHL over the years that are now bankrupt.

It will be interesting to see how DHL will respond to an ACMI carrier that doesn't need them for their continued survival. I think it would make them extremely nervous to know that one of their prime subcontractors could tell them to take a hike if they were pressured to lower their rates beyond a certain point.

I know there's some animosity between ABX and Astar over scope, but has ABX taken any position on how they would respond in the event there's a strike at Astar?

 

[Jurasicpilot]

Where are the pictures that were going around on this subject. It showed a full yellow 76 -200 parked at the end of the shop by the DC-10. It had a CHI N number. Thats how this whole d##n rumor got started.

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

ExTWA metal

As I understand the players ATI and Capital fly for BAX. BAX is owned by Deutche Bann, the German railway. I would expect the CHI 767's to show up in the green and white.

BTW, the ex TWA 767's are pieces of crap. They were definately "rode hard and put away wet". For the first several years ABX had them they were referred to as the unh oh sisters (four of the 5 have N numbers with a 0 in them). The standard joke, given identical paint schemes, was you could id one of them at a distance because it was the one with maint. truck parked next to it.

That is probably true about the 767s. They were early models of the type and have a lot of flight hours on them.

However, the 757s from TWA ala AA are some of the last ones off the assembly line, circa late 1990s - early 2000s. Those will be nice birds for the carrier that get them after the conversion.

 

[tired_pilot]

Express.net to get small DHL contract

Rumors from former company they're about to sign a 3-5 plane 2 year deal..

 

[ABXbooger]

just saw that Express net leased a A-300 to EAT a european DHL airline...

 

[ABXbooger]

also saw CAT has three 767-200 parked at MCI awaiting conversion. Also a ? it says on the CHI site that they were converting 757's starting summer 2005, what happened to them?

 

[haulingthemail]

Hey Haulingthemail,

Why would you make a statement like that? Why would you joke about the “walls crumbling into tiny pebbles? I don’t know, something doesn’t sit well with that statement. I have too many friends over there depending on a steady paycheck to casually joke about the downfall of ATI.

not the down fall of ATI, but the fact that tiny pebbles might/is moving to MCO.

 

[flyinboxes]

Maybe DHL is just lining back-up for when ASTAR is locked out or walks.

Yep, just lining back- up, whatever that means.

I hope all this comes true. CHI(whoever that is) leases out all kinds and types of planes, ATI buys building 11 and ASTAR and ABX goes to Japan, and 767's fall from the heavens with cargo doors so low paid pilots can take my good paying job.

Rest assured, we will fight to the death if any of this total BS ever does happen. This thread went off the deep end....LOL.

 

[shooter]

That is probably true about the 767s. They were early models of the type and have a lot of flight hours on them.

However, the 757s from TWA ala AA are some of the last ones off the assembly line, circa late 1990s - early 2000s. Those will be nice birds for the carrier that get them after the conversion.

FedEx

 

[PlaneDrvr]

FedEx

Actually, at least 10 of the 27 (I believe that was the total), of the ex-TWA 757 are going to Delta after AA starts returning them to the leasor (starting this spring/summer).

I belive that most are owned by AIG/ILFC corp; and yes, they are some of the last 757 off the line. Delta already pick their a/c and took most of the ER/ETOPs certified airframes. AA final chose to return them (the lease term is up), for fleet standardization; all of AA's original 757s are RB211 powered (the better engines for the 757) and the ex-TWA birds were all PW powered.

DA