What, me worry? ($50 oil)

[vc10]

So far as I can tell, there's not one thread here on $50 oil and what it's going to do to this business if it persists through 2005.

You'd figure someone would be interested.

 

[46Driver]

I was thinking the same thing a couple of days ago when I posted this:

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=40797

 

[FlyDouglasJets]

So far as I can tell, there's not one thread here on $50 oil and what it's going to do to this business if it persists through 2005.

You'd figure someone would be interested.

Nope, not good at all, we will all be riding bicycles around pretty soon.

Last year JET-A was around $.80 for the majors, it's around $1.40 now.

Consider that the airlines 2nd highest expense, has increased nearly 100%, can you imagine where the default is going to come from??

We will all be working for tips soon.

 

[General Lee]

You have gotta add a fuel surcharge, especially on all routes not covered by LCCs, and then a modest one on those, since Southwest can only fly a certain number of people per day.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ATA717Pilot]

You have gotta add a fuel surcharge, especially on all routes not covered by LCCs, and then a modest one on those, since Southwest can only fly a certain number of people per day.
Bye Bye--General Lee

Sure...great idea...didn't NWA do this a few weeks back only to back off a few days later when noone else jumped on board?

What other industry sells their product for less than it costs to produce it?

It's time for all the airlines in this country to grow some stones and institute an across the board fuel surcharge. Hell....you don't see these pax not gassing up their monster SUV's because it suddenly costs $5 more.

 

[46Driver]

The alternative is that the stronger companies will utilize this to drive the weaker companies out of business sooner and then reap the benefits of decreased competition. If your fuel is hedged and you are paying a flat rate (say $35 a barrel), then you have no incentive to raise fares.

 

[jarhead]

Oil closed at above $53 today. Kind of spooky. We're going to have a scenerio where the people in Saudia Arabia are all driving big heavy Mercedes-Benz cars, and in the good old USA, we will be the ones driving camels around and picking up their dung for use to heat our tee-pee with in the winter.

A $35 hedge was a pretty good move when it was available. If it goes to $60.00 a barrel, maybe some $54 contracts are appropriate?

 

[Palerider957]

Oil closed at above $53 today. Kind of spooky. We're going to have a scenerio where the people in Saudia Arabia are all driving big heavy Mercedes-Benz cars, and in the good old USA, we will be the ones driving camels around and picking up their dung for use to heat our tee-pee with in the winter.

A $35 hedge was a pretty good move when it was available. If it goes to $60.00 a barrel, maybe some $54 contracts are appropriate?

You have to have credit to hedge, and in the case of DAL, USAIR, and United, I can't imagine they are getting anything but the highest cash price from the suppliers.

 

[coolyokeluke]

What was the quote about the weather, "everyone talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it."

Perhaps that's why there isn't more discussion on this vital subject. There's not so much we can do about it. Besides conservation of course.

 

[AA717driver]

Jarhead--As long as we have U.S. Marines, we'll always have oil! TC

 

[46Driver]

Jarhead--As long as we have U.S. Marines, we'll always have oil! TC

And beer!

WHO is that in your avatar???

 

[SMMustang]

"I have a plan that in 10 years we'll have nuclear powered airplanes."

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Our dependence on oil, and especially foreign oil, is our country's #1 problem, and neither Bush, Kerry, nor any other major politician are even talking about it.

We need an Apollo-type program that is funded by the government to find alternative energy sources that will be used large-scale within 10 years, or even the US Marines won't be enough for us to fight for enough oil to keep the economy running.

The engine manufacturers need to start working on engines that will run super-efficiently on jet fuel, and also on other types of fuel.

Some of the FBOs are now charging over $4/gallon for retail Jet-A.

Cliff
LRD

 

[grinch]

Peak oil: greatest threat to the airlines and world economy?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5945678/

News flash: world oil supply is limited.

No $hit. I'm not sure why MSNBC thinks this is news (other than the fact that the world is burning it as if it were unlimited)

World production has been declining for the last few years while demand is growing at 2-3%. (World demand for oil is currently 82 million bpd). Nobody knows how much is left but it's clear that new discoveries are fewer and further between (with smaller and smaller reserves found in increasingly harder to access places).

But there's plenty of talk about the scientist that accurately predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970. And some are now predicting that world production will peak soon (or already has). Many economists agree that sometime after world oil production peaks the dark stuff will officially hit the fan (you know....great depression, famine, cannibalism, yada yada yada).

Too bad we can't convince China and India to stop growing and buying cars and stuff.

Anybody not familiar with the concept of "peak oil?" Here's some quality food for thought/entertainment on the subject at the link below. Take it with a grain of salt. This guy clearly just wants to sell his book (not that there's anything wrong with that).

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

 

[SWA GUY]

$53.00/bbl is not a supply problem, it is a result of a two-pronged situation.

1. Refining capability within the US. (The US refineries are at 100% production. Current EPA restictions are cost prohibitive for the building of any additional refineries)

2. The derivitive firms on Wall St., also known as crude oil speculators, are not purchasing long contracts, but are buying spot crude contracts on a day to day basis which runs the price of crude to where it is today, and where it'll be tomorrow.

For those who think wind generation mills might be an answer to coal burning electrical plants here is the situation: One coal burning electrical generation plant's annual output equals?

A wind powered electrical mill every 1/4 mile stretching from Florida to Maine times 4! Very expensive.

Nuclear power plants would be a much better solution, but try to sell that to the "Not in my backyard" crowd.

Releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) or increased output from OPEC has of late done nothing to stem the tide of increasing crude prices. Why? See answer 2 above.

Crude prices will likely reach $60/Bbl before we see $30/Bbl again.


Just an afterthought. In many instances the release of crude oil from the SPR and/or increased OPEC production has resulted in reducing crude prices, but it doesn't work when we're at war.

 

[iaflyer]

We need an Apollo-type program that is funded by the government to find alternative energy sources that will be used large-scale within 10 years, or even the US Marines won't be enough for us to fight for enough oil to keep the economy running.

While that type of program may generate results, there are alternative energy sources available today that can be used in cars you and I can purchase TODAY.

My Volkswagen Jetta TDI runs on diesel fuel. Average fuel economy over the past 4 years/105,000 miles? 44 mpg!

Not only that, but it can run Biodiesel straight from the factory (VW approves it in Europe, not here, long story). The new Jeep Liberty (diesel) comes from the factory with ability and approval to use it too. In fact, the fill at the factory includes 5% biodiesel.

Biodiesel is a vegetable based fuel that runs in diesel engines - no modifications are generally needed for vehicles built in the last 6 years. What vegetable? Soybeans. Renewable. Made right here in the USA. At the moment, it does cost more than regular diesel, but very little biodiesel is made in right now. Perhaps larger scale production would lower prices.

Large oil companies are probably more comfortable raking in the profits and the status quo than looking for other ways of fueling our cars and trucks. Shoot - the current government screams big oil.

I'm really not trying to get into a politics discussion here. I just think there are solutions out there than are being overlooked because the solutions are "different" and might require some change to the way people think.

iaflyer

 

[jarhead]

iaflyer,

You indeed have a good partial solution. There are a lot of car buyers out there that your car would fit nicely with. There are other drivers whose circumstance will not allow for that. There are legitimate needs for large pick-up trucks for the workman, bigger SUV and 4 x 4 for pulling a boat or camper to your favorite camp grounds, etc.

Detroit (or Tokyo) needs to start the ball rolling with bigger vehicles that have more utility than just driving mom or dad to the office in a metro area.

 

[dtfl]

mm hmm

SWA GUY - you speak truth. Dead on. A buddy said he read somewhere that the SEC was going to start limiting speculation on oil futures?
What we need is the oil bubble to bust - like flower bubble...or the real estate bubble that will bust soon.....or some frickin bubble.

 

["Next Wave"]

What about the inflation factor

What happened in the airline industry when Carter (loser) was President?
From what the USA Today said that if you factor in inflation since President Carters term, it would be the equivilent (Sp?) of $86.00 a barrel today. Which leads me to agree with SWA Guy except it will probably reach at least 70.00 before in settles in at around 50.00 a barrel.

Was the airline industry still under regulation?
$100 a barrel possible at this rate.

just a thought

 

[SWA GUY]

DTFL,

Limiting futures trading to stem the increase in crude prices sounds like a good idea on the surface. However, we'd be really messing with our free market economy and I'm not sure its a good idea to do that.

More bad news on crude prices: Many retirement fund managers are now getting into the game of biding on crude oil futures contracts because they are able to make good money through them. New capital injection is not going to help ease crude prices. If $50/Bbl+ contracts last more than 3-4 months we are looking at a serious global economic problem.