What if???????????

[enigma]

Edit: For those who have a hard time comprehending my musings, this is an ECONOMICS related question. Not a call to strike, etc. Got it?

I was just about to respond to a pro PFT post on the interview bbs, but decided to just make another string.

Here goes.

What if every commercial/ATP pilot earned more than $100K per year?(or, at least four times the national average income) No PFT, no working for free.

In effect, this would mean that all aviation businesses (charter, training, freight, pax, etc) would experience a dramatic increase in his cost of doing business. Those costs would be passed on to the ultimate consumer.


So, what would happen? Would people stop flying to FL for vacation? Would GM stop flying in parts to fix broken factory equipment? Would Dell stop flying in chips? Would "wannabe"pilots stop earning new ratings?

As I read managements defense of thing such as PFT, I get the feeling that managers think that they have a God given right to a supply of cheap pilots, and I wonder what would happen if there was no supply of cheap pilots. I doubt that we would see much change in anything. I think that people would still fly, boxes would still fly, students would still fly, cables would still be patrolled, traffic would still be watched, etc, etc, etc.

The only difference would be that pilots would make a better living. I realize that some markets would shrink until an equalibrium, but once the market stabilizes, I think that we would be back to normal.

"We have met the enemy and he is us" Pogo.

enigma

 

[Timebuilder]

I agree. It's because WE want to have that flying job so much, we are willing to do almost anything to have it.

That's not a very good bargaining position.

We are not alone:

Commercials for radio (mostly) that used to be recorded by top level announcers in pro studios, written by experienced copywriters, and produced by talented engineers, are now often produced in home studios for a fraction of the former cost. The announcer/writer/engineer does all this with a mic, a mixer, and his computer for as low as $20 to $30 in some cases.

We call it "the race to the bottom of the rate card," meaning that some are willing to wh*re themselves out in order to increase their volume to a point where they can make $300 a day for ten commercials instead of $250 a day for a single spot, which is my minimum for a :60.

While nothing much would be different if we were able to all increase our pay simultaneously, it wouldn't happen because someone would always be willing to do the job for less, in order to increase the size of his business, or to get more flying time, or for some other perceived benefit.

 

[bart]

$100,000 a year plus for all pilots can happen, but there will have to be a dramatic shift in either supply or demand. I do not see that happening. On the supply side, I do not think you will find many volunteers willing to leave the world of aviation so your wages will go up. Are you willing to leave so others can get paid more?

People like being pilots. There is a lot of intrinsic benefit for most people that do it. As long as people enjoy it, you will need to organize to raise wages artificially, and even then, it will only be over the short term.

If money is important, I can offer you many ways to make it. Sadly, none of them involve piloting an aircraft.

 

[labbats]

We don't live in utopia and never will. I'll fly for someone who treats me with respect, not someone who uses slap-dash maintenence and cut rate pay scales.

It's America, you get what you pay for. Cut rate salaries garners cut rate pilots.

 

[enigma]

$100,000 a year plus for all pilots can happen, but there will have to be a dramatic shift in either supply or demand. I do not see that happening. On the supply side, I do not think you will find many volunteers willing to leave the world of aviation so your wages will go up. Are you willing to leave so others can get paid more?

People like being pilots. There is a lot of intrinsic benefit for most people that do it. As long as people enjoy it, you will need to organize to raise wages artificially, and even then, it will only be over the short term.

If money is important, I can offer you many ways to make it. Sadly, none of them involve piloting an aircraft.

Bart, I should have included wording for you and the Publisher. It would read something like this, "For the sake of argument, suspend reality and assume that all pilots make..............."

I'm fully aware of the reality of supply/demand in the employment market. My point is that management seems to take low priced labor as a given, and I wonder what would happen if low price labor was no longer low priced. Would the managers who take labor for granted go out of business because they can only succeed with low price labor?, I think not. I believe that they would adapt. Therefore their continual arguments against labor are at best disengenuous.

One last thing, everything you read with from the logon name Enigma comes from a supply side, free market advocate who is genetically disposed to oppose organized labor. Unfortunately, I have worked long enough as a pilot to recognize that some organization is necessary. I'd be happy to work for a benevolent dictator, King Solomon maybe, but I ain't letting Larry Risley, or some retired W-4, have complete control of my life.

regards,
enigma

 

[bart]

OK, gotcha. Sign me up, I know about 15 other guys that have given up flying that would come back for that kind of money.

 

[DC4boy]

You dont get what you deserve, you get what you negociate.

 

[avbug]

You mean all pilots don't make a hundred grand a year?

 

[Big Duke Six]

On the other hand...

I think some things WOULD change.

I believe our volume, whether it is people or boxes, in this industry is nearly completely price driven. Would a family of four fly to Grandma's for Christmas if it cost them $3000? I don't think they would. Would you pay $30 MORE to get your book from Amazon in a day or two, or let it slide and get it in five or six? I think the CONSUMERS would adapt, not the employers.

OK, yes, the employers would too, but probably not in the ways you're hoping for. They would let everyone go except for the people needed to cover the greatly reduced flying schedule created because all the consumers decided it wasn't too much of an inconvenience to drive, take a bus, or send it by truck. "Gosh, aren't all the cows pretty, Junior?" "Who wants a PBJ?" "Are we there yet?" Just like the old days.

We'd all be rushing to go to truck driving school, and this forum would be devoted to changing tires and who has the snappiest CB handle.

 

[Timebuilder]

We'd all be rushing to go to truck driving school, and this forum would be devoted to changing tires and who has the snappiest CB handle.

...and we'd have a new kind of PFT. Maybe it would be "PFD."

 

[bobbysamd]

Pilot supply v. demand v. wages v. desire

I'd be happy to work for a benevolent dictator, King Solomon maybe, but I ain't letting Larry Risley . . . have complete control of my life.

(emphasis added)

Or Gary Risley, Mrs. Risley, Grady Reed, Mike Whitman or any other of Risley's Mesa lieutenants. Well said, Enigma. I didn't work there long, primarily because I had to get away from their oppressive environment.

Aviation and radio have a great many similarities. Soooo many people want to be pilots and soooo many people want to be radio announcers, and there are soooo few jobs available for both. When I started off in broadcasting, some people offered to work for free. Others were willing to take jobs sweeping floors just to get their foot in the door. If you had other abilities besides talent, such as technical, writing, sales or even clerical, you would take that job, hoping to work your way on the air. At least that got your foot in the door; you sometimes then had to move from station to station until you got a chance. There were plenty of people who would accept fairly substandard wages to work at a particular station, even if the wages were less than what people doing similar work at the same station were being paid. Can that be compared to a "B" scale?

Of course, there are those pilots who, for whatever reason, are soooo desperate to fly that they will P-F-T.

It's very simple. There will always be someone out there who is willing to work for less than you, and those who will grovel for those jobs.

I hear there is a nursing shortage and it's legitimate. After seeing someone bring up truck driving, here is a link to information about Denver Diesel College. I'd be happy to answer any questions I can about paralegal work, but don't go for this Kool-Aid put out by the successor to my alma mater. There is no paralegal shortage.

 

[DJS]

What if?

What if every commercial/ATP pilot earned more than $100K per year?(or, at least four times the national average income) No PFT, no working for free.

So you're basically suggesting that all existing commercial pilots go on a coordinated strike for huge wage increases, on the order of 2-3 times current salary levels.

What would happen? I suspect the president (Bush or Kerry)would use his emergency powers and order you all back to work. If you didn't go, you'd be fired.

The public would completely support the president. It's one thing for one airline to go on strike in a nice standard fashion in order to negotiate (to bump salaries, increase safety, etc.); that's our system of checks and balances between organized labor and coporations at work. But killing commerical aviation in the entire country is another matter.

What then? After you all were out there on the picket line (or fired), at that point I, and thousands upon thousands of people like me would gladly step in to take your place. Might take a couple years to get enough people trained up to commercial/ATP, there'd be some disruption of service for a while until we were all up to speed, but that's ok.

About me: discovered flying in my mid 30's after already being established in another career, family, kids, etc. Took a solid look at a career doing something in the air, but just couldn't justify going back to an entry-level salary and time training and working up the ladder. I already did that once in my career and that's definitely for people in their 20's. So I'm just a weekend warrior who wishes he had discovered aviation 15 years ago (sigh).

But if I suddenly had the opening to make a reasonable salary (perhaps not as much as I make now, but enough to put food on the table) and I had an employer desparate for pilots because *all* the existing ones were out on the picket line...sign me up and scratch "scab" on my jacket. I'd be practicing chandelles and studying for the commercial and ATP exams like there was no tomorrow. And if the union(s) suddenly came to their senses (in time!!) and wanted all us scabs out, hey, no sweat, I can always go go back to computers.

I'll bet there are literally thousands of others just like me out there.

 

[EatSleepFly]

Re: What if?

What then? After you all were out there on the picket line (or fired), at that point I, and thousands upon thousands of people like me would gladly step in to take your place.

<snip>

About me: discovered flying in my mid 30's after already being established in another career, family, kids, etc. Took a solid look at a career doing something in the air, but just couldn't justify going back to an entry-level salary and time training and working up the ladder. I already did that once in my career and that's definitely for people in their 20's. So I'm just a weekend warrior who wishes he had discovered aviation 15 years ago (sigh).


I'll bet there are literally thousands of others just like me out there.

Well, I for one am glad you decided against making flying a career. The last thing this industry needs is more asshole scabs like yourself.

 

[searching]

I agree with EatSleepFly,

Crossing a picket line while people fight for a decent lifestyle F*cking Sucks big time.

 

[calfo]

I fly with d!ckheads like that once in a while... They can't get to where they want to be on their own, so they take someone else's place who's trying to improve his life.

Fortunately, the people that cross are usually shown to be inept and usually a training problem later in the process. They never had to fly winters in Chicago in a Cessna 310 hauling checks and learning about icing conditions, or they didn't learn about how to land in a 30 knot crosswind in a Cessna 210... Most people that crossed picket lines have little basis of experience - they have to steal it.

 

[enigma]

Re: What if?

So you're basically suggesting that all existing commercial pilots go on a coordinated strike for huge wage increases, on the order of 2-3 times current salary levels.

Hey DJS, what do you think this is, the olympic jump to a conclusion contest? I'm not suggesting anything and if you'll read it again, you should be able to pick up the context of the post.

What would happen? I suspect the president (Bush or Kerry)would use his emergency powers and order you all back to work. If you didn't go, you'd be fired.

The public would completely support the president. It's one thing for one airline to go on strike in a nice standard fashion in order to negotiate (to bump salaries, increase safety, etc.); that's our system of checks and balances between organized labor and coporations at work. But killing commerical aviation in the entire country is another matter.

Are you a blinkin idiot, or do you just have a hard on for professional pilots? Hostility anyone?

What then? After you all were out there on the picket line (or fired), at that point I, and thousands upon thousands of people like me would gladly step in to take your place. Might take a couple years to get enough people trained up to commercial/ATP, there'd be some disruption of service for a while until we were all up to speed, but that's ok.

Scabs almost always end up getting screwed by the very managers the scab was kissing up to. Go for it. You'd deserve everything you got.

About me: didn't have the cajones to actually go for it.

But if I suddenly had the opening to make a reasonable salary (perhaps not as much as I make now, but enough to put food on the table) and I had an employer desparate for pilots because *all* the existing ones were out on the picket line...sign me up and scratch "scab" on my jacket. I'd be practicing chandelles and studying for the commercial and ATP exams like there was no tomorrow. And if the union(s) suddenly came to their senses (in time!!) and wanted all us scabs out, hey, no sweat, I can always go go back to computers.

I'll bet there are literally thousands of others just like me out there.

You're probably correct, there are thousands of selfish barstards out there, but this wasn't a UNION/LABOR/MANAGEMENT thread Mr. Miscomprehension, it's economics. Here is the question again, see, I'm making it easy for you.

"So, what would happen? Would people stop flying to FL for vacation? Would GM stop flying in parts to fix broken factory equipment? Would Dell stop flying in chips? Would "wannabe"pilots stop earning new ratings?"

I'm glad you discovered aviation, if you really want to be a professional pilot, go for it. But you need to know a little secret first, those unions that you hate are there because professional pilots pretty much agree that they need the protection of numbers in order to keep guys like you from kissing managements behind and never having to work Christmas.

enigma

 

[DJS]

Heh

ROFLMAO! You guys have made my day. Thanks.

"No Cajones", "Blinking Idiot", "Bastard", "Dickhead", "Union Hater". Wow. Sure got you socialists riled up by pointing out that you all are lucky enough to get paid for something that a lot of people would do for free.

Two points:

1. No one on this board knows me, my personal or career history, or what challenges I've faced, what risks I've taken, what successes or failures I've had. To claim that I don't have cajones because, this time, at this point, with the responsibilities I now have, I didn't go spend $50K+ and 3 years as a CFI to try and get some entry-level job which I could only keep until I turn 60...well, that's just, um, fascinating.

2. Supply. Demand. Two very important terms to remember.

 

[urflyingme?!]

Fo the record...

My CB call sign would be
"Elwood" as in elwwod blues. If that one was taken already(since it's soo cool) I would be .... Mav-Vip-Goos-rick-Bravo

PS
Yes i'd take the check for 100 K for CFI. I would then found an all girls aviation school.

(apologies to all serious pilots on board, just tryin to lighten it up. Hopefully my race to the top won'y expedite the race to the bottom)

 

[enigma]

Re: Heh

Two points:

1. No one on this board knows me, my personal or career history, or what challenges I've faced, what risks I've taken, what successes or failures I've had. To claim that I don't have cajones because, this time, at this point, with the responsibilities I now have, I didn't go spend $50K+ and 3 years as a CFI to try and get some entry-level job which I could only keep until I turn 60...well, that's just, um, fascinating.

I don't need to know your personal or career history. What you put on paper/screen tells me all I need to know. You're someone who has no idea of my life as a professional pilot, yet you feel the need to call me a socialist. I'm not particularly bothered by being called a socialist, MAR would disagree, as would anyone who has been on this bbs for more than six months. They know that I am a right wing radical.

I didn't say that you don't have the cajones to go for it now, I said that you didn't have the cajones to go for it back when you were young. Some of us did, and have spent 20 years pursuing the career. Now, you come along and state that you would be a willing scab. Go ahead, like I said, you'll deserve every hosing you get from the company.

2. Supply. Demand. Two very important terms to remember.

O.K., From your earlier post, I will assume that you have some education. You must have seen a scenario problem somewhere in that education. An answer to the scenario would have been a sufficient reply.

Here's something to think about. There are many pro-management pilots on this bbs. Bart, SDF--BUF, and others fit this catagory. They always manage to make their point without the hostity and jealousy that you exhibit.

One more thing. Rest assured that there are very few, if any, long time professional pilots who are willing to do this job for free. You wrote, "you all are lucky enough to get paid for something that a lot of people would do for free." The only reason wannabees fly for free is to gain the chance to get to a well paying job. If you took the top level pay away, the amount of people willing to fly for free at the bottom would evaporate.

enigma

BTW, I didn't call you a d1ckhead, a d1ck is

 

[enigma]

Re: Fo the record...

Yes i'd take the check for 100 K for CFI. I would then found an all girls aviation school.

Interestingly, I found that female private pilot students were much more dedicated than their male counterparts, yet they tended to lose interest after the private.

regards,
enigma