What if legacy carriers go away?

[enigma]

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that the LCC's drive the legacy carriers out of business.

Will the LCC's attempt to extend their route structure to cover the smaller destinations that they now fly over/past?

Will the regionals go down with their legacy major partner?

Will the current LCC's expand to international, or will our government allow foreign carriers to take over the routes?

Would the legacy carriers fleets sit in the desert, or just change paint?

If the LCC's drive the legacy carriers out, will the LCC's go supernova in an attempt to fill the route voids left by those legacy carriers?

If you were the CEO of a LCC carrier, and you wanted to position yourself so as to be able to take best advantage of such a void, what aircraft would you order?

Any comments, or speculations?

And one more question, Where would the LCC's be in ten years after the current legacy carriers are gone?

Personally, I think that the current LCC's, with the possible exception of SWA, would end up as bloated as todays legacy carriers and we'll get to do the whole upheaval thing all over again.

regards,
enigma

 

[FN FAL]

I guess if the LCC's could drive the legacy carriers out of business...then the LCC's will get phat. Then somebody will have to invent ECC's, then they will drive out the LCC's. Those would be Economical Cost Carriers.

So the Phat LCC's will be history and the ECC's will get Phat. Somebody will coin FCC's, Frugal Cost Carriers. Then they will run the ECC's out of the competition. And then the ECC's will get Phat...

By then, I'll be getting Phat from eating Purina Cadaver chow and I won't care what they call them things.

 

[FN FAL]

Personally, I think that the current LCC's, with the possible exception of SWA, would end up as bloated as todays legacy carriers and we'll get to do the whole upheaval thing all over again.

Oooops, you already said that already.

 

[Dash8]

legacy carriers don't need the lccs to go out of business, they can do that well enough on their own

adapt or die....
they just can't do it, mired in inadequate policies and practices.

 

[JB74]

Dash8.............mighty fine moose knuckle ya got there!

 

[Dash8]

moose-knackle?

why whatever do you mean? lol

 

[secks]

One thing's for sure: if the legacy carriers die, those $160k+ per year airline pilot jobs will see a similar fate.

 

[enigma]

One thing's for sure: if the legacy carriers die, those $160k+ per year airline pilot jobs will see a similar fate.

Sorry, that isn't true. SWA Captains can, and do, easily exceed $160K.

engima

 

[secks]

Sorry, that isn't true. SWA Captains can, and do, easily exceed $160K.

engima

Depends on how you define "legacy". Regardless, can you think of a non-legacy airline, besides SWA (assuming it is), which pays that well? SWA is the exception in this industry. If the regionals continue their expansion into routes once exclusive to the majors, then you will definitely see the end of legacy wages.

 

[cale42]

LCC's

I've never posted here, but I feel compelled to comment on this subject.

All the rage in the media these days is to comment on low cost carriers and how they are so great, and they will drive legacy carriers out of business and bemoan that the legacy carriers won't adapt. However they overlook that the things that make these fleets so practical (single aircraft fleet, one class of service, flying to satellite airports) just aren't practical for all operations. If you are flying international a single fleet doesn't work... if you serve a business hub that only has a primary airport, you just can't drop it, and like it or not there are ppl who still have a need for first class. There is a need and a demand(albeit soft) for the services that legacy carriers provide.

Do the legacy carriers need to rework their business models?? Absolutely. However everyone mimicing the LCC's is not the way to go. The LCC's fill a necessary demand, but the legacy carriers need to(and will) always exist. Can you imagine a day when if I want to go to Europe I have to fly BA or Lufthansa.. b/c United and American only have 737's and they can't get there or I can't fly from JFK to LAX.. instead I have to fly Newark to Orange County. I sure hope not.

Just had to get that off my chest... everyone becoming a LCC is not the solution to the problem...

 

[SDF2BUF2MCO]

I'm surprised there isn't more talk of mergers/buyouts with the legacies. There is a lot more code sharing going on though (DL with NWA and CO) with frequent flyer stuff. Speculate rather than merging that they'll just wait for a competitor to go out of business and get the customers that way.

 

[Dash8]

Re: LCC's

I've never posted here, but I feel compelled to comment on this subject.
*snip*
and like it or not there are ppl who still have a need for first class. There is a need and a demand(albeit soft) for the services that legacy carriers provide.
*snip*
Just had to get that off my chest... everyone becoming a LCC is not the solution to the problem...

Nobody 'needs' first class, its a luxury not an essential. Thats like saying some people 'need' dom perignon or beluga caviar.

True single type fleets aren't perfect, but neither are 10-type fleets. The legacies are a dying breed as they stand, they are not sacrosanct, the inevitability of their demise is unfortunately obvious to anyone not mired in that archaic thought process that the Seigels and Carty's are slave to. Of course the rise of Ornstein'ish buisness practices don't bode well for the future either.

 

[enigma]

Cale42, I tend to agree. I'm just wondering how long it will take for the smaller communities, and their lobby, to figure out that the LCC's will never serve them under those LCC's current model. I dred the day when I have to drive two hours before I can even find an airport with scheduled service. Today, I can reach two regional carrier destinations in less than 45 minutes, one large city major destination in just over an hour, and a major hub in just over two hours. If todays legacy carriers go TangoUniform, I wonder who will serve my local airports.

I have ideas, but this thread is an attempt to get input, not to run my mouth

enigma

 

[cale42]

First Class

Dash 8... I was referring more along the lines of executives and other high ranking ppl who from the time they sit down in their first class seat to the time they get off the plane, they are working on their laptops(plugged into the power ports available in first class), talking on the airphones(often 1 per customer in first class), and scarfing down the food b/c it will be his only meal of the day. Try telling a company whose top execs times are worth thousands of dollars an hour they don't need first class.

The point is legacy carriers provide services that there will always be a demand for, and that LCC's don't provide... someone just needs to figure out a way to create a sustainable business model of it.

 

[cale42]

First Class

Dash 8... I was referring more along the lines of executives and other high ranking ppl who from the time they sit down in their first class seat to the time they get off the plane, they are working on their laptops(plugged into the power ports available in first class), talking on the airphones(often 1 per customer in first class), and scarfing down the food b/c it will be his only meal of the day. Try telling a company whose top execs times are worth thousands of dollars an hour they don't need first class.

The point is legacy carriers provide services that there will always be a demand for, and that LCC's don't provide... someone just needs to figure out a way to create a sustainable business model of it.

 

[sf3boy]

True, Dash8, nobody "needs" first class. Nobody "needs" to fly either. They can drive, take the hound, or ride on a government train. Flying pax around is the same as any other service. If there is a market, someone will offer the service.

The LCC will not take over the legacy carriers completely. They might do much of the domestic stuff, due to the fact that the mainline unions will give up scope to protect the upper 25 percent of the wages on the heavy aircraft. Remember the golden rule.... those with the gold make the rules. The more money ALPA takes from a pilot, the more representation one has.

On the other hand, what exactly is a legacy carrier and how did that term get coined? Are United, American, and Delta legacy carriers? If they are, then I would say that TWA, Pan Am, and Eastern were also legacy carriers. I would hope that if Delta, American, United and the likes want to be considered legacy carriers, then they better operate in a way to steer clear of the end results of previous legacy carriers.

 

[sf3boy]

cale42,
There is a business model for a LCC providing a first class cabin. Mesaba Airlines offers 16 first class seats on its Avro jets to all of the cities it flies to. The four crew members that operate it, do it for about $170 per hour (if they are super senior). A NWA DC-9 captain makes about $170 per hour to fly the same route. There is your business model.

 

[nimtz]

Sorry, that isn't true. SWA Captains can, and do, easily exceed $160K.

engima

And the truth is that some Wall St. types are already hinting that SWA will suffer in the long term due to this. Long term senior employees being paid top dollar for their work. Sound familiar? IE these clods already believe that SWA guys are going to have to take paycuts. That's how f*ck up this business is getting.