Virgin America reported a $12 million operating loss

[NEDude]

Two weeks ago, I had a VA FO jumpseat and he said with all the deferral's of equipment, upgrade is now at 5-7 years at VA. He told me things aren't too pretty over there.

Calling BS.

The so-called 'deferrals' were only announced at the end of last week, not two weeks ago. As previously posted, they are not really deferrals, they are not taking the available options they have - all of the committed aircraft are still coming on schedule. This committed schedule was presented to the company last July. So from what the company presented as a committed delivery schedule for 2011-2013 has not changed since July of last year. Upgrades are running at just under 3 years. A person hired in the past year is looking at around 3-4 years based on the still committed delivery schedule.

You may have had someone who is not happy, but overall this is a very happy group.

 

[NEDude]

But facts, not opinions matter. Here are the facts:

1. VX has made money ONE quarter in 3 years.
2. VX is deferring airplanes.

Draw your own conclusions.

Here are more facts (it usually helps to have all the facts when having a discussion - omitting the ones that contradict your believe is not good form):

1. Virgin America is adding seven more airplanes between now and the end of 2011.*

2. Virgin America is adding five more aircraft in 2012.*

3. Virgin America has ordered 60 new airplanes starting delivery in August 2013.

4. Virgin America has just entered into a new contract with CAE to build a training center in SFO.

5. Virgin America just announced a second pay raise for the pilot group in just over a year.

6. Virgin America's 'unrestricted cash' grew 20% from the end of Q3 2010 and the end of Q4 2010 ($25 million to $30 million).

* - These are on par with the 'All Hands Meeting' presentation from July of last year. I have the slide saved on my computer from that presentation, and this is exactly what it showed. In other words there is no change from what the company had as a committed plan since at least last July.

Now, all of that being said, the finances are a concern, there is no question about that. There is a new article in Aviation Week today where the CEO states that the company will need a cash infusion if oil prices remain high. So we are not out of the woods, not by a long shot. But contrary to what many would have you believe, we are not on our death bed, and things are not gloomy here.

And the last fact, that nobody here can deny, is that none of us know the mindset of the board of directors. This is a privately held company, and the investors only have to answer to themselves. The decision to grow, shrink or pull the plug is their decision alone - it is not a blogger for Bloomberg, it is not an independent aviation analyst, and it is not some pilot for Alaska Airlines. And anyone who is not on the board of directors or in upper management who claims to know what the mindset of the investors is full of it.

 

[Fubijaakr]

How many failed airlines have you worked for? I bet you thought USA3000 would make it too.

 

[OUPilot]

I don't have a dog in this fight, but Skybus had firm orders when they ceased operations. I know people over there so I hope it works out, but you can't judge anything by orders.

 

[Fubijaakr]

I don't have a dog in this fight, but Skybus had firm orders when they ceased operations. I know people over there so I hope it works out, but you can't judge anything by orders.

Amen. Alaska was the launch customer for the MD-90. Not one MD-90 was ever flown by Alaska Airlines.

There is no such thing as a "firm" order. Until the airplane is on the ramp and the logbooks are inside, its all prospective.

 

[SMcC]

Virgin America is way, way, way beyond the level Skybus reached before their demise. Comparing Virgin America to Skybus at this point would be like comparing Ford Motor to Tucker.

 

[NEDude]

How many failed airlines have you worked for? I bet you thought USA3000 would make it too.

What does that have to do with anything regarding Virgin America?

Oh yeah, nothing but flamebait.

 

[NEDude]

I don't have a dog in this fight, but Skybus had firm orders when they ceased operations. I know people over there so I hope it works out, but you can't judge anything by orders.

True, but Skybus operated for a grand total of less than eleven months and had 12 airplanes. All of its orders came prior to the start of operations. It was not around to order 60 airplanes nearly 3 1/2 years into operation like Virgin America just did. The Skybus comparisons are a bit of a stretch at this point. Even Independence Air operated only 20 months after its rebranding. At this point Virgin America has operated nearly four times as long as Skybus, and more than twice as long as Independence Air.

Regarding those two airlines - there were far more warning signs about their impending demise than what comes close to Virgin America. Independence started having aircraft repossessed less than a year into operations. At Skybus, the company was in trouble almost from the get go, the company founder resigned that day after operations began. As I pointed out, neither of those airlines were ordering 60 airplanes 3 1/2 years into operations. Neither of those two airlines were adding destinations 3 1/2 years into operations.

For the record - I am not predicting the ultimate success or demise of Virgin America. It very well may fail, and there is cause for worry. But comparing Virgin America to two airlines who lasted less than half the time, in different markets is an invalid comparison.

 

[curtaindriver]

True, but Skybus operated for a grand total of less than eleven months and had 12 airplanes. All of its orders came prior to the start of operations. It was not around to order 60 airplanes nearly 3 1/2 years into operation like Virgin America just did. The Skybus comparisons are a bit of a stretch at this point. Even Independence Air operated only 20 months after its rebranding. At this point Virgin America has operated nearly four times as long as Skybus, and more than twice as long as Independence Air.

Regarding those two airlines - there were far more warning signs about their impending demise than what comes close to Virgin America. Independence started having aircraft repossessed less than a year into operations. At Skybus, the company was in trouble almost from the get go, the company founder resigned that day after operations began. As I pointed out, neither of those airlines were ordering 60 airplanes 3 1/2 years into operations. Neither of those two airlines were adding destinations 3 1/2 years into operations.

For the record - I am not predicting the ultimate success or demise of Virgin America. It very well may fail, and there is cause for worry. But comparing Virgin America to two airlines who lasted less than half the time, in different markets is an invalid comparison.[/QUOTE

Dude, don't feel like you have to defend your company to anyone, especially on FI. I don't know why people want to see another airline fail. There are so many stories of ruined careers it doesn't make sense to wish for more. You guys seem to run a good airline. Besides, Skybus started their operation from Columbus, OH.......enough said. And if oil keeps climbing and climbing, we are all in trouble.
Good luck, fly safe.

CD

 

[Lake Alice]

Pilots dislike VA for the same reason Jetblue was hated years ago. The pay and benefits are pathetic. Jebtlue was able to fix some of those issues. VA still has a long way to go. In the end airlines that can't be competitive in compensation and benefits are bad for all of us.

 

[weasel_lips]

Pilots dislike VA for the same reason Jetblue was hated years ago. The pay and benefits are pathetic. Jebtlue was able to fix some of those issues. VA still has a long way to go. In the end airlines that can't be competitive in compensation and benefits are bad for all of us.

The problem with the airline industry has been too many competitors in the market operating at a loss just to keep or gain marketshare. Finally the industry is correcting that by removing capacity.

Now here comes another startup... Virgin America adding capacity. Bragging about adding airplanes. The cycle continues once again. They operate at a huge loss just trying to gain or maintain market share... and in the process depress yields for everyone else.

 

[NEDude]

The problem with the airline industry has been too many competitors in the market operating at a loss just to keep or gain marketshare. Finally the industry is correcting that by removing capacity.

Now here comes another startup... Virgin America adding capacity. Bragging about adding airplanes. The cycle continues once again. They operate at a huge loss just trying to gain or maintain market share... and in the process depress yields for everyone else.

Yeah, the legacies have never operated at a loss to maintain, or gain, market share. And they have never used government loans, or protectionism to grow.

If historical profitability is the gauge for deciding which airline should live, and which should die, then there would be no industry.

 

[curtaindriver]

The problem with the airline industry has been too many competitors in the market operating at a loss just to keep or gain marketshare. Finally the industry is correcting that by removing capacity.

Now here comes another startup... Virgin America adding capacity. Bragging about adding airplanes. The cycle continues once again. They operate at a huge loss just trying to gain or maintain market share... and in the process depress yields for everyone else.

Then let history prove to be the correct process. Start-ups practically never make it. If VA continues, it will have to raise fares to survive. When any Legacy carrier begins a new market, it stimulates that market with cheap fares. A new airline entrant basically does the same thing. If the new market, or airline in this case, doesn't create the demand necessary.........it fails. That is as simple as it gets for VA.

But, if a pilot group of the said start-up doesn't eventually reach parity, then I have no remorse if that group hits the streets. In my opinion, I don't believe that burden should be cast upon VA pilots yet. If I had it my way, there would be a single pay system amongst all the carriers, and it would be up to the company to find a way to compete. That is a pipe dream, obviously.

CD

 

[DB Cooper]

I would think a more useful comparison would be Jet Blue at the 3.5 year mark. Not Skybus or Indy.

DB

 

[Fubijaakr]

jetBlue was crowing that they'd have 200 Airbus knocking out the legacys with their "new paradigm".

The only thing that saved jetBlue is that they were the "hometown airline" in the biggest O/D market in the world.

How many airplanes do they have 10 years later? 115 A320 and 36 E190. Not quite the 200 they were gloating about.

Virgin pilots are doing the replay. Gloating about airplanes they don't have. Unfortunately, they don't have the "hometown" tag on the largest O/D market either. SFO and LAX are cutthroat and they can't seem to get established anywhere else. SNA and YYZ were busts. They'll be out of DFW by Xmas. And United just dumped 16 flights on top of them in ORD. They won't last there, either.

Comparing Virgin to jetBlue has holes big enough to drive a Mack truck through.