US Airways snap-back?

[ackattacker]

At some point, do enough of the East pilots retire that there are more Westies and this crap finally gets resolved? Because obviously the status quo will not yield a solution.

That point is a long way away. And, so long as new hires continue to go east the new hires have little incentive to vote to merge the lists either since separate lists means more upward movement for them.

-Ackattacker

 

[JetMonkey]

On an old bankrupt contract.. Yea, that's nice.

 

[TWA Dude]

How long til most of the East is retired.

They continually overstate how rapid their retirements come. Here's some correct numbers:

2012 WEST 3
2012 EAST 9

2013 WEST 45
2013 EAST 150

2014 WEST 46
2014 EAST 214

2015 WEST 51
2015 EAST 184

2016 WEST 44
2016 EAST 230

2017 WEST 64
2017 EAST 239

2018 WEST 52
2018 EAST 259

 

[dugan jones]

They continually overstate how rapid their retirements come. Here's some correct numbers:

2012 WEST 3
2012 EAST 9

2013 WEST 45
2013 EAST 150

2014 WEST 46
2014 EAST 214

2015 WEST 51
2015 EAST 184

2016 WEST 44
2016 EAST 230

2017 WEST 64
2017 EAST 239

2018 WEST 52
2018 EAST 259

Those numbers are based on turning age 65, there will be some leaving before then. Also if the snap back is not won a ton will leave very quickly after that.

Whether you think so or not, most of the new hires are all about keeping things seperate for the movement. As long as that is the case, the west will never have the majority because the east operation requires more pilots.

 

[Crzipilot]

Essentially, From the east:
2017 30% of the list will be retired
2022 66%
2025 82%

From the west:
2017 14%
2022 32%
2025 46%

Cumulative:
2017 24%
2022 54%
2025 69%

Granted the east has a larger # on their list, but sitting at the bottom, there would be a fairly quick upward movement over the next 10-12 years.

East currently is showing 2600 on their list.
82% of them gone by 2025 is 2150 retired in the next 14 years.

 

[Crzipilot]

Those numbers are based on turning age 65, there will be some leaving before then. Also if the snap back is not won a ton will leave very quickly after that.

Whether you think so or not, most of the new hires are all about keeping things seperate for the movement. As long as that is the case, the west will never have the majority because the east operation requires more pilots.

I have also heard the theory, that if the Arbitration for the pay is won, there will be alot leaving soon after also. The thinking behind that is, many individuals with 1000+ hours in their sick banks. If pay arbitration is awarded, their sick hours get a 20-40/hour increase in value. Hence be able to medical out for a year as a bridge to medicare and they are done.....

 

[Crzipilot]

Show me another list where, if hired this year, you will be in the top 500-1000 in 15 years out of 2600+ pilots?

 

[TWA Dude]

Nicolau was aware of the projected retirement numbers. He stated, "...it cannot be disputed that there were differences in the financial condition of both carriers and that US Airways was the weaker. This necessarily means that career expectations differed and that US Airways pilots had more to gain from the merger than their new colleagues."

So you can harp on those numbers all you like but they're only part of the picture of what Nicolau used to make his decision.

 

[DCMartin]

Show me another list where, if hired this year, you will be in the top 500-1000 in 15 years out of 2600+ pilots?

Until a few years from now when they buy republic.

I do agree with you though, baring another buyout or merger your not moving faster anywhere else and The QOL has to better than these regionals.

 

[dugan jones]

Nicolau was aware of the projected retirement numbers. He stated, "...it cannot be disputed that there were differences in the financial condition of both carriers and that US Airways was the weaker. This necessarily means that career expectations differed and that US Airways pilots had more to gain from the merger than their new colleagues."

So you can harp on those numbers all you like but they're only part of the picture of what Nicolau used to make his decision.

I think I saw your dog fly over my house yesterday :laugh: