US Air long term survivability

[flint4xx]

Inevitable failure or long term survival?

 

[boeingdriver213]

I think U will survive, although maybe not with the name USAirways. It wouldn't suprise me to see U and UAL merge. They seem to be working towards that , the way they are combining operations at many airports, code sharing, etc. My big concern in the event of a merger is, what happens to the guys on the street? Are we just out? Who knows?

 

[B190Captain]

I think U will survive, although maybe not with the name USAirways. It wouldn't suprise me to see U and UAL merge. They seem to be working towards that , the way they are combining operations at many airports, code sharing, etc. My big concern in the event of a merger is, what happens to the guys on the street? Are we just out? Who knows?

Where would the money come from? UAL and US are both broke!

 

[boeingdriver213]

I think if it came right down to it, the government would allow a merger in stead of losing the capacity of TWO major airlines, and I don't believe they would let a little thing like money (or the lack of it) stop a merger. They might however allow one to die, thinking that one less airline would allow the others to thrive. Being a furloughee from U, I would prefer to see U survive, even though I don't think I will get called back. UAL being a bigger airline would probably get more attention from the government though.

 

[FurloughedAgain]

You don't need money to merge -- though in reality US Airways cash position is quite strong right now.

A simple stock-swap could work. In essence you can buy an airline with its own equity.

While I would never subscribe to the Chip Munnian premise that UAL/USAir are destined for each other, I do believe that consolidation is inevitable.

The UAL/USAir merger was denied by the Government due to significant overlap. USAir is now roughly half the size it was in 2000. There is a much greater chance that a transaction would make it past the antitrust police.

 

[FurloughedAgain]

It is amusing to see people predicting the imminent demise of the airline though.

In late 98'/early 99' when US Airways was taking delivery of a new Airbus every WEEK and hiring over 100 pilots a MONTH people were falling all over each other to send an application and get an interview.

Nobody gave two thoughts to leaving AirTran to start class with USAir and Jetblue sounded more like an aftershave lotion than an airline.

Pilots are a fickle bunch. In 3 years the paradigm has completely changed.

 

[skykid]

Agree with FurloughedAgain. But U mgt (Wolfman) seemed to be convinced they had to make some radical changes to survive even before 9/11 - hence the ill-fated partner up attempt with UAL. I don't see a lot of difference in their situation now. U is in a tough market which will no doubt get tougher, and their route structure is not diversified. It is unbelievable to me that U mgt now says they need more cost cutting after rushing in and out of Ch11. With UAL in CH11 bankruptcy, I don't believe there is any legal possibility of a merger, and I hope current UAL mgt is not that stupid. I think Southwest coming to Philly is being way overplayed as far as some folks posting U's doom as a certainty, but it is a big deal. Obviously Southwest sees long term growth potential there, and that has got to make merging or acquiring U a lot less attractive.

 

[Heavy Set]

My bet is that Orenstien will target USAirways after a failed ACA bid... Watch out!

 

[Mr.B]

"Pilots are a fickle bunch. In 3 years the paradigm has completely changed."

True, and you can bet it will change again in 3 years. So, always have another skill-set ready. (IMO)

 

[typhoonpilot]

My Vote is for failure. I hope I am wrong for I have many good friends who work there. The sad reality is that their business model doesn't work and they are getting eaten away at by the likes of Southwest, Airtran, JetBlue, and others.

It is possible that some small portion will get bought or merged into another carrier but that will only save the top 1000 on the list at most.

The time to complete failure is hard to predict. They do have a decent amount of cash right now and the economy is recovering. The sad thing is they can't take advantage of an economic recovery because they outsourced too much flying and don't have enough wide body aircraft. Management in their tunnel vision zeal to cut costs has eliminated the ability to generate high revenue by slashing capacity.

USAirways will limp along like Pan Am, Eastern, and TWA before them until another significant event finally pushes them out of business. The downward spiral started with the Piedmont merger when Ed Colodny paid too much for Piedmont in order to avoid a hostile takeover from Carl Icahn. That didn't have to be the beginning of the end, but then the buyer ( USAir ) tossed out all the good Piedmont management so they could focus on their " cool Northern efficiency ".

No use crying over spilt milk though, I've already moved on and won't ever go back again.

Typhoonpilot

 

[LearLove]

another question:

What about the contract carriers and WO. I would guess PSA and MDA (if it gets up and running) would be sold along with shuttle.

Also wrt the contract I'm guessing someone like DAL or CAL or NWA would come in to say PHL and say just keep flying what you are and change the paint, kind of like or just like Delta did in CMH when AWA left earlier this year.

As far as the turboprop flying goes on the east coast I think there will always be a market or atleast for some time to come. Just like Skywest's 120's and the Dash's for horizon out west there is just some flying here in the east that will be TP. Maybe some hope for Alg and PDT.

 

[FurloughedAgain]

ALG and PDT are assets which can be sold during the next financial crunch. Granted their value is limited by their aircraft type -- but I can think of one hungry regional that could quickly and easily absorb them....

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I think pilots who were trying to get on at USAir were misinformed. I know of guys who were leaving back in 1991, because the future didn't look great for USAir.

I hope all the furloughed and current USAir employees can find decent employment, especially if the whole airline goes under.

CLiff
DTW

 

[320AV8R]

Typhoonpilot is correct.

When USAir, Piedmont & PSA were put together, they had the potential to be a major player. The first mistake they made was parking the BAE-146s, leaving the West Coast, & concentrating on the East Coast. Their hubs, (DCA, BWI, PHL, LGA, PIT, BOS) were now competing with each other (except for CLT). Ed Colodny was smart, but not smart enough. They were operating a "major" airline with a "regional" (Allegheny) mindset.

The second mistake they made was retreating when SWA came into BWI. SWA then expanded along the East Coast, with a 7 cent (vs 12 cent) ASM cost, & started to eat their lunch. They lacked a strategic plan, which resulted in their eventual CH 11 filing.

Now the momentum is lost. They are pulling out of PIT. I'd wager to say that SWA, AirTran & ATA will be in PIT shortly. The Shuttle isn't as lucrative as in the past. (AirTran & SWA fly between BOS, PVD, ISP, BWI, DCA etc..) SWA going into PHL will prove to be the begining of the end. The only thing they have left is the CLT hub, which competes heavily with one of the busiest airports in the world....ATL.

My guess is that they'll end up as a much smaller airline, with only a CLT hub, or they will slowly fade away.

 

[reepicheep]

The pilots we hired in the late 90's who sought out the realists would have been told that they were hired for the Airbus training float and they would have been told that USAir did not have a sustainable business model and once the economy slowed down the airline would begin to lose money again and they would be furloughed. Too many heard what they wanted to hear and listened to the kool-aide drinkers who congratulated them and told them they'd soon be flying widebodies to Japan.

These same kool-aide drinkers can now be seen on our ALPA board advocating more concessions to "save our airline".

 

[FurloughedAgain]

yeah, but to be fair, not ALL of us flew with Chip.

 

[reepicheep]

Well, the bright side - if there is one, is that at least a lot of you were young enough to start over hopefully somewhere good. I wish they'd furloughed me back in 1990 when I was still marketable. Now I'm pretty much unemployable and stuck with 'em for better or worse.

 

[AA717driver]

Anyone who goes to work for a company run by Stephen "Don't call me Steve" Wolf cannot claim to be blindsided when things go bad.

That's like asking Carl Ichan to join your managment team...

Right after I upgraded at TWA, almost every FO I flew with was going to USAir. I really couldn't tell them what I thought because I hadn't been right too often in my guesses. I was right about that one, though.

The comment about hiring for the Airbus float is right on. I heard that from a friend who got recalled at the time.TC

 

[General Lee]

The addition of Southwest at PHL will obviously not help their bottomline. I think USAir will have to look again at their product and their strengths. East Coast travel will be bogged down with plenty of Low Cost outfits---like Southwest, Airtran, Jetblue, and Song---which will lower the North South fares on the East Coast. USAir will have lots of RJs---big and small---flying the same routes as some of those LCCs and their larger planes, and the passengers will choose what they prefer. (Jetblue will also have those EMB-190s doing the same)

There are some things that I think USAir is doing well---namely their Carribean flying. They offer a very comfortable plane (usually the A319) to many islands that only the rich and famous can afford---and the fares reflect that. They are branching out to Central America(mainly from CLT)---like San Jose, Costa Rica and even Liberia, Costa Rica, and Belize City----places that cater to rich Americans or Americans who want to act rich. That was very smart on USAir's part---and it is no doubt one of their shining stars. Their European network from PHL is also doing well I believe. Their Shuttle service from LGA to BOS/DCA etc. also is a money maker, and they have many loyal customers.

It will be interesting to watch what they do to combat the LCCs in their backyard. It is a problem many Majors are having to deal with---like DL in ATL with Airtran. Thank God the economy is starting to improve and hopefully brighter days are ahead for all of us.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[reepicheep]

There are many smart and observant people who conclude that US Airways' plan is to become sort of a seat broker - a dealer in commodities that rarely handles the product itself - at least insofar as a traditional "mainline" carrier goes. It will retain a small mainline - maybe 100-150 Airbuses - for select routes, and a large regional product - MDA - that will feed United and the Star Alliance. It will become more and more of a brand name and less of a real airline. The mainline may even disappear altogether.

A merger with United will never happen. Ask any United pilot on this board to comment on why.