United

[Extra300S]

Funny how UAL is still here and it is almost November when several people on this board were predicting the doors would be closed on or about Oct 1, 2003.


I seem to remember the geek from Airtran saying "They will not make it through the first week of October"


Sorry dudes...YOU were wrong.

 

[skykid]

You don't have to worry Extra, the people who want UAL to be gone will keep moving doomsday back. The following predictions were all from the same guy!!

Pre bankruptcy...
Their achilles heal is going to be the lack of ability to secure DIP financing. They have jacked around for so long and burned through so much cash, without DIP they are finished.

Okay, got the DIP financing
Early this year...
As a side note, I spoke with Bethune in January and he said UAL wouldn't make it through March. He might be right.

Okay, made it through March
Circa March...
What is coming is in my opinion chapter 7 for UAL. If this war with Iraq takes place, and I think it will, it will doom UAL. Remember EAL was in the same position and ceased operations 3 days after the first gulf war started. UAL is in much more of a precarious position than they were at the time.

Okay, made it through the war
Recently...
The third, fourth and first quarter will either make or break them.

Geepers, do you really think so? I've got a prediction too. The last two quarters of the Georgia/Florida game coming up will either make or break the chances of the Bulldogs winning the game.

Seriously, the best source of info on what is going on with United is the CEO and the WSJ. In March, the CEO said there was a good chance UAL would liquidate depending on the severity of the Gulf War. An amazing thing for a CEO to say, but 100% true - and granted the purpose of the statement was to encourage concessions. The WSJ handicapped UAL's chances of avoiding Ch7 at 50% in March. A few months later, the WSJ changed the handicap to 10%, which is what they thought the chances of another major terrorist event occuring was. Tilton recently said UAL still has a lot to accomplish, but is in a completely different place now than it was in the beginning of the year. The amazing thing is seeing the folks post how bad UAL mgt is and how there is no plan. That was correct 2 years ago - not anymore. It is 60% new faces at the senior mgt level and they have been lucky and good. The war and the SARS nonsense could have been the end, but instead pushed the IAM to approve concessions no one thought possible. Am I a UAL cheerleader? Yeah man, but I'm cheering for your airline too - this ain't a zero-sum game.

 

[Herby Versmells]

Well said SkyKid! Its funny how those predicting UALs demise are so quiet these days!

 

[crazee8]

Pre-Qual: I do NOT want UAL to go T.U. Half of my household comes from them.

With that being said - Dang It - It's very badly managed on a local scale. I can't comment on CEO's etc - but I can comment on station management and it's horrendous. At one int'l station in particular where I am familiar (via spouse) I cannot begin to list the "chit" that goes on, but more importantly, doesn't go on.

As a example of horrendous waste in just the last couple days: The Press Corp charter crew timed out (even though they were right on schedule: scheduling error). Another 747 had to be chartered from another company. Cost, as told to spouse: $180,000. Ground transportation arranged to take flight attendants across the street. After waiting on standby for however long - even the van driver had to comment about how much this was costing United.

Upper station management have devoloped what appears to be a hands off approach. Key phrases include: "Just don't screw this up for me - I've less than a year to retirement," or, as in the case of yesterday, in the middle of a schedule change, understaffing, and work area work increases: "I'm not coming in. I'll be in New Jersey." Cancellation of California flights saved the day because they probably couldn't have been worked anyway.

Now. I'm frustrated and I don't even work for them!! How can people act this way when their company is in bankruptcy. I guess no one cares????

 

[skykid]

From Feb of this year...

Two years of hard work paid off Monday for United Airlines.
The Elk Grove Township, Ill.-based airline recorded the best on-time performance in the industry, surging past perennial front-runner Southwest Airlines. Only two years ago, United's on-time performance was the worst in the industry.

"This kind of improvement, sustained over a whole year, is nothing short of amazing," said Pete McDonald, United's executive vice president of operations. "I'm proud of employees for pulling together during a very difficult time and achieving something so extraordinary."

According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, 84 percent of United's flights arrived on time during 2002. A year ago, United remained mired in the bottom of the pack when its on-time performance was ranked ninth in the country. Only 73 percent of its flights arrived on time in 2001.

American Airlines, the world's largest carrier, wasn't far behind United. The FAA reported that 83.8 percent of its flights arrived on time in 2002.

While Southwest dropped to sixth place from first in on-time performance in 2002, the carrier improved in percentage terms. In 2002, 82.6 percent of Southwest flights arrived on time, up from 81.7 percent in 2001.



Crazee8, I think you will see the performance for 2003 is right on par with 2002, and may lead the industry again. In fact, the company records set this year have been amazing, esp the number of days w/zero cancellations. How can you get these results with the operation you described? You can't. I go in out of the outstations and I don't see what you are describing, and I keep leaving on time. Don't take my word for it, call or get on line with the Transportation Dept and see who is performing. Also, if things are so bad at the station you are describing, it only takes one person to turn it around.

 

[crazee8]

SkyKid, I will admit that I was ranting just a tad because of the waste and apathy at my spouse's station. My spouse works spouse's azz off (supervisory position 12-14 hours a day - paid for 8 - me trying to do a JB conversion but spouse is too loyal) to make things work with barely any support from top levels and it's people like spouse that make the numbers you just talked about (based on what I hear from day to day - I can't believe they pulled it off and neither can spouse). Successful ops seem to come with a load of luck (spouse's words).

What kills me is that middle management either doesn't show up for work or shows up and de-motivates everyone by yelling at them about performance when said managers don't take the time to notice that these same people they're yelling at, saved the operation. Hallmark of bad management as far as I'm concerned. Those that "tank" the operation seem to get more regard OR nothing ever happens to them because of the union.

Recent example. Plane stopped in wrong spot - needed to move up. Message got to mechanic but not ramp. Ramp began unloading. Mechanic got up stood beside ramp, under the wing, and watched ramp unload without sharing the information - not his job to tell anyone (heaven forbid). After calls from pilots, spouse runs out to see what's going on. Mechanic gets his little dig in, passengers inconvienced, fellow employees pissed off. I could go on and on.

None-the-less, spouse is confident of successful emergence - so I will quit ranting. I love my UAL bennies!!!

 

[Mugs]

United CEO Forsees Bankruptcy Emergence

October 29, 2003 06:37 PM EST


CHICAGO - United Airlines remains on track to emerge
from Chapter 11 bankruptcy late next spring and turn a
profit for 2004 after seeing encouraging progress this
summer and fall, CEO Glenn Tilton said Wednesday.

Tilton declined to say when United would file its new
business plan in federal bankruptcy court, nor would
he disclose any new specifics about the low-cost
carrier it intends to launch next year from its Denver
hub.

But in brief comments to reporters, he said United has
outperformed the industry average in the last two
months, is meeting its bankruptcy lenders' strict
monthly financial benchmarks and has a positive daily
cash flow of $4 million to $5 million.

Passenger demand in the Pacific region, which fell off
sharply this year with the outbreak of severe acute
respiratory syndrome, has returned to pre-SARS levels,
he said. United is more dependent on traffic from that
region than other U.S. carriers.

The Elk Grove Village, Ill.-based airline reports
third-quarter results on Thursday which are expected
to show significant progress - similar to other
carriers, which benefited from a busy summer travel
season. Tilton indicated there has been no drop this
month.

"I'm really encouraged by October," he said following
a speech to the Executives' Club of Chicago. "I'm
especially encouraged by the mix of business. ... I'm
very encouraged by the fact the Pacific has come back
as strong as it has. The market that we need to work
on further is the Atlantic."

He attributed sluggish demand in that region to many
passengers' continuing disinclination to fly.

The airline is targeting operating profitability for
all of 2004, although Tilton said the high volatility
of the business make forecasts difficult.

"Obviously we envision a sustainable cash flow and
sustainable profitability," he said. "We're just
powering forward on a financial, operating and market
basis."

United shares rose 2 cents Wednesday to close at $1.06
in over-the-counter trading.

 

[mar]

Some more to the story perhaps?

From Aviation Week & Space Technology Oct. 6, 2003 Market Focus:

<<On the surface, it would appear that UAL Corp., parent company of United Airlines, is well down the path toward exiting from Chapter 11 protection. The carrier has achieved all of the targets required under its debtor-in-possession financing package thus far.

But a major obstacle still looms as big as ever in the form of a $4.2-billion pension shortfall. The carrier has been lobbying Congress to intervene. While a one-year waiver of pension contributions would ease UAL's financial burden, the ultimate fix--in total disregard for employees--would be permission to terminate the plans altogether.

The bottom line is that failure to reorganize remains a distinct possibility for United--in which case the fallout would be substantial, noted Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Cameron Jeffreys. Numerous regional jets operated by UAL feeders SkyWest, Air Wisconsin, Mesa Airlines and Trans States would instantly become idled. RJ manufacturers also would be affected, but it is Bombardier Inc. that probably would take the biggest hit, he said. The first three carriers are significant Bombardier customers. (SkyWest recently placed an order for 30 CRJ700 aircraft, plus an additional 80 options.)>>

-------------------
After that the article goes into greater detail about the woes at Bombardier.

 

[Heavy Set]

Good thing for UAL the bankruptcy court is located in Illinois... I can't wait to see Starfish kicking Southwest's, Jetblue's, AirTran's, Song's and Frontier's collective ar$es... Good luck.

 

[f9driver]

Ual Bankruptcy

Chapter 7 or closing the doors is usually a relatively slow process in the airline business and it will probably take a few years. A catalyst like another 9/11 or a bad economy will be needed to deliver the final coup de gras. I would start saving nuts up for winter if I were a UALer. It may not come to pass but old airlines with high costs, aging and high cost employee medical expenses, retirement, debt etc. make it hard to compete since deregulation IMO. Good management can help but will not necessarily save the day.

s/s A Pan Amer who has been there

 

[resistance]

I am going to put full support to F9 driver...

The "old" carriers are (and have been) facing a difficult time keeping up the the leaner carrier. U, NW, AA UAL have way WAY too much overhead and debt obligations that their current business plan can not cover. It worked well when the stock market was paying off double digit returns yearly but times are certainly tougher. I still see the old business droping off the radar scopes due to their pension/work rule compansation issues.

For those who think this message is a "chicken little: the sky is falling" line just look back at some of the great carriers... Pan American, Eastern Airlines, Trans World Airlines, Braniff International, and the list goes on.

 

[F9 Driver]

Hey.. I'm F9 Driver

Not that I disagree with the voice of experience, but there are two of us. f9driver vice me F9 Driver

Sounds like he got to see the "golden" days of aviation.

These are strange days for us flyers.

Heavy Set,

When and IF Starfish (Liberty) actually shows up with their four 320s in February I doubt many outside of this BBS will notice. IMHO-UAL may be using their LCO idea to convince potential exit financiers that the noise from the back is just a loose panel - not a death rattle.

Got to go. My crystal ball's battery is running low

 

[KLJ]

On-Time Performance

I'm no expert, but I do believe significant reductions in AA/UAL's scheduled service (post 9/11) does tend to help their on-time performance statistics. I would attribute the improvement to the reduced schedule factor more than I would to an improvement in the respective airline's service. Not only are there less people/flights to work, but another benefit is a decrease in airport congestion and ATC delays.

Unlike most other airlines, SWA's schedule has continued to grow and profit in the post 9/11 environment. SWA's on-time performance has remained consistent (even improved slightly) when compared with their history.

 

[Mugs]

SWA's on-time performance has remained consistent (even improved slightly) when compared with their history.

Tell us all about SWA's on time :14 stats after they get fleet-wide ACARS. Until then, who cares.

 

[canyonblue]

Tell us all about SWA's on time :14 stats after they get fleet-wide ACARS. Until then, who cares.

How the hell does ACARS ruin your on-time arrival times? After all the DOT measures on-time within :14 minutes. If your airline can't get to the gate within :14 of scheduled arrival at least 7 out of 10 times, then maybe you need to focus on why the hell not. ACARS won't do crap to SWA's ontime DOT stats. I can't believe people post things like this. Are these people really flying for an Airline?