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United moves slowly..................painfully

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storminpilot

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 6, 2003
Posts
282
http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2004-12-07-united-usat_x.htm

United moves slowly, painfully
By Marilyn Adams, USA TODAY

When United Airlines said in December 2002 it would need 18 months to restructure its far-flung system, many outsiders doubted its bankruptcy case would take so long.

Two years later, United is still flying in bankruptcy and in the red, and an exit is not foreseen until deep into 2005 — if then. Thursday marks the second anniversary of the filing by the No 2 carrier, the biggest airline bankruptcy filing ever. And like a force of nature, the giant case continues to send shock waves as it lumbers forward.
Two years of pain
Dec. 9, 2002: United files for bankruptcy-court protection five days after being rejected for a $1.8 billion loan guarantee by the federal Air Transportation Stabilization Board (ATSB).
Dec: 30, 2002: Bankruptcy court approves $2.5 billion bankruptcy financing.
March 13, 2003: The first SARS death is announced by the World Health Organization. Travel to and from Asia — a key region for United — plummets.
March 19, 2003: U.S. invades Iraq. Demand for international flights falls.
April 30, 2003: Bankruptcy court accepts new contracts with United's six unions, saving the airline $2.5 billion a year.
May 2003: United shuts aircraft maintenance centers in Indianapolis and Oakland.
Dec. 18, 2003: United seeks federal loan guarantee for second time.
Feb. 12, 2004: United launches Ted, its low-fare carrier.
March 8, 2004: United announces new regional airline partners to fly United Express routes.
April 8, 2004: Congress passes legislation to help airlines and other companies temporarily cut pension costs.
June 28, 2004: ATSB denies United's second loan guarantee application.
Oct. 2004: Oil tops $50 a barrel. Jet fuel prices hit record highs.
Oct. 6, 2004: United says it will shrink its jet fleet, reduce domestic flying and increase international flying to cut losses.
Nov. 4, 2004: United tells its unions it must terminate pensions and cut pay again to attract exit financing.

21,000


Jobs shed since Chapter 11 filing

$142 million
Fees incurred by United for bankruptcy lawyers and consultants

$3.7 billion
Net losses since the filing

9,000
Court docket entries to date in the case

$50 billion-plus
Creditors' claims to date

Source: USA TODAY research
Today, Chicago-based United is on the brink of the single-biggest pension default in history, an act that would shift billions of dollars in costs from the airline to a federal agency. It's asking unionized employees for a second round of pay cuts that would bring the total reduction to $3.2 billion a year. A pension default and a new round of $700 million in annual cuts could force other airlines to rip up their labor contracts to stay competitive.

It's overhauling its flight schedule, launching routes to China and testing the limits of bankruptcy laws to reduce debt.

"This is a restructuring that's breaking new ground," United CEO Glenn Tilton said in an interview with USA TODAY.

From the beginning, the case has unfolded like a melodrama.

United filed for protection from creditors 15 months after the Sept. 11 attackers drove one of its jets into the World Trade Center, and another into a Pennsylvania field. Just a few months after filing, United and other airlines were grappling with new catastrophes: the war in Iraq and the SARS epidemic.

'One horrendous thing after another'

This year, the nightmare has been high fuel prices, which will cost United $1 billion more than planned.

"It's been one horrendous thing after another," says Capt. Steve Derebey, a spokesman for the Air Line Pilots Association. "I keep waiting for the locusts."

The most public setback has been a government board's repeated refusal to grant United a federal loan guarantee to help it land $2 billion in financing. The first denial by the Air Transportation Stabilization Board, in December 2002, precipitated the Chapter 11 filing. The second, in June, set the stage for a new round of painful cost cutting aimed at restoring profitability even with record fuel prices and cheap fares.

"Complex Chapter 11s take a long time," says Boston-based bankruptcy lawyer Jon Schneider, who has worked on large airline cases in the past. United still lacks a business plan for operating outside bankruptcy, he said, "because the economics of this industry are so difficult."

With fuel prices draining cash, United's bankruptcy lenders recently waived their financial performance requirements for three months because otherwise United would have defaulted.

Sheer numbers tell the story of the mammoth bankruptcy. As of Tuesday, case No. 02-48191 in the bankruptcy court in Chicago contained 9,043 docket entries. Through midyear, United had been billed $142 million by bankruptcy lawyers, accountants and consulting firms working on the case. United's workforce has shrunk to 62,000 workers, off by about a quarter from two years ago. Those who remain are working harder, earning less and can expect smaller pensions.

Inside the company, the stress of change is ever present. Rumors fed by fear and uncertainty fly through the company on transcontinental flights and in Internet chat rooms.

"There's a rumor a day," Derebey says.

But Tilton and other executives are encouraged by what they see as progress. Although United is still posting large losses, the size of those losses is generally shrinking. United's unit costs — what it spends to fly one seat one mile — are gradually falling. Its on-time and lost-bag performance have been among the best in the industry.

In the midst of bankruptcy, United earlier this year launched an airline-within-an-airline, Ted, to compete with discount carriers at their own game in Chicago, Denver, Washington and elsewhere. Although the company won't divulge its financial performance, Ted appears to be putting pressure on competitors.

In Chicago, for example, United competitor ATA Airlines, a discounter flying from Midway, filed its own Chapter 11 bankruptcy this fall when it ran short of cash.

Treacherous times ahead

As hairy as the last two years have been for United, the next several months could be the most treacherous.

Incensed by new cost cuts, United's largest union, the International Association of Machinists, recently asked the court to oust United's management team and install a trustee to run the company. The IAM backed off after United agreed to hire a consultant to analyze the business plan for the union.

Aircraft investors last month tried to repossess 14 United jets because of a dispute over the leases. The airline was forced to get an emergency court order to keep flying the planes.

But United's demand for new pay cuts and new, cheaper pension plans promises to be the most toxic battle. The flight attendants union has vowed to disrupt flights if that happens, and the IAM warns of repercussions as well.

"This airline cannot survive without loyal employees," says Robert Roach, IAM general vice president

United now hopes to exit bankruptcy in fall 2005, more than a year after original expectations. Between now and then, United must win new labor concessions, resolve its pension plans, get deals with aircraft investors and keep creditors satisfied.

"That's a big if," says airline analyst Philip Baggaley of credit rating agency Standard & Poor's. "This story could still end in any number of ways."
 
Sounds like a fun place to be over the next year or so (if that long) don't it? Speaking from experience, you certainly don't want to go through that rollercoaster over and over again. You don't want to live with that anxiety day in and day out (unfortunately you can't escape it in this business).

When is Virgin America hiring???????????????
 
Correction - less than Southwest cost structure. After this next round of cuts a 12 year 747/777 capt will be making about 165/hr. Southwest 12 year capt makes 182/hr for 1/3 the pax on board.
 
Well, I hate to say I "told you so" .. but I got some harsh words from some SWA boys when I told them things are going to be tough in 2005 and that they're aren't going to be putting the nail into anyones coffin.
 
Mr. Prediction.:rolleyes: We have a new idiot who knows the airline biz. You're only 355 hours from Lowecur there buttercup. "Take it up the rear trying to compete with UAL"?, you need to spend less time on this board and more time cleaning the FBO.
 
Vik said:
Its gonna be a fun place to be working for any airline now as they're all going to take it up the rear trying to compete with UAL.

2-3 years to turn UAL into SWA's cost structure. Not bad. :)

Do you have any idea how much the debt burden of UAL post bankruptcy will hurt the cost structure? They can restructure debt and leases, but the debt will still be there. Look at how much AA and DAL are paying in debt servicing. At least a billion dollars a year. The pilots have to earn over 20% less at UAL just to EQUAL costs at Airtran, SWA, and JB.
 
Vik said:
Well, I hate to say I "told you so" .. but I got some harsh words from some SWA boys when I told them things are going to be tough in 2005 and that they're aren't going to be putting the nail into anyones coffin.
the LEGACY carriers could pay the pilots NOTHING and still lose money...NO way UAL will be a LCC. It is a BUSINESS MODEL that is broken! It is not the pilot's fault or salaries that are to blame...it is the responsibility of management that has failed to alter course and redefine their business model post internet bubble and post 9-11.
 
even if ual somehow makes it out of bk, they will continue to take the pilot industry to new lows, i.e. low pilot pay, pensions be-gone, etc...
 
canyonblue said:
Mr. Prediction.:rolleyes: We have a new idiot who knows the airline biz. You're only 355 hours from Lowecur there buttercup. "Take it up the rear trying to compete with UAL"?, you need to spend less time on this board and more time cleaning the FBO.

ROTFLMAO!!!!
 
OOOOWWWWWCCCCHHHHHHH. I heard that smack from here!
 
Do you have any idea how much the debt burden of UAL post bankruptcy will hurt the cost structure?
FlyBoeingJets, not trying to be a wisea$$, but go ahead and post that figure for my own education. Thanks.
 
wndshr said:
the LEGACY carriers could pay the pilots NOTHING and still lose money...

This is exactly what the problem is. If every pilot at every carrier made nothing, the industry would still look the same. Unfortunately there are other folks at the airlines that just make way too much for what they do. The average large airplane pilot (in the last ten years) spent $50 large getting his licenses, then 3 years at a commission paying CFI job, then flying a little thing in the middle of the night with cancelled cheques or something along those lines, then at a commuter (prop), then at a commuter (jet), then in the back seat, then in a front seat............

................then, well we all get the idea. Basically the average large airline pilot has never made over $50K a year for the first ten years of his career, and probablly after debt repayment and taxes and dues and medical plans and failed retirement plans, etc. He probablly cleared an average of $10,000/yr. This, as a respected professional.

Bottom line, management should not use the word pilot with the name of any other airline employee group in the same sentence. Our training is extensive, expensive and continues our whole lives. Per year, we get 2 medicals, groundschool tests, sim checks, line checks, drug tests, FAA (ride-a-long) checks, etc, etc. We get tested more than physicians, lawyers, judges, presidents.

And finally to top it all off..................the safety of every flight rests solely in our hands................nobody elses............only ours.

So, we are to take the biggest cuts because we make the most. If you add up all the things that I listed above, then we should be getting bonuses and everyone else's cuts should go to us, too.

Windshear, you're right! They would still lose money.............but, it's not our fault.

LG
 
I don't know exactly. I'm not sure if they have to report that info in BK. Here is what Yahoo finance has--

Profit Margin (ttm):-8.92%
Operating Margin (ttm):-6.17%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):-6.62%
Return on Equity (ttm):N/A
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):16.14B
Revenue Per Share (ttm):144.148
Revenue Growth (lfy)³:-11.50%
Gross Profit (ttm)²:253.00
MEBITDA (ttm):-105.00M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):-1.44B
Diluted EPS (ttm):-13.003
Earnings Growth (lfy)³:N/A
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):1.53B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):13.2
Total Debt (mrq)²:1.21B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):N/A
Current Ratio (mrq):0.642
Book Value Per Share (mrq):-59.001999
Cash Flow Statement
From Operations (ttm)³:249.00M
Free Cashflow (ttm)³:-35.00M

Shares Outstanding:116.22M
I do know they have lost much more than DAL the last 3 years and UAL entered this 4 year long downturn with less cash than AA and DAL. Don't even mention the failed business jet venture they sunk millions into.

116M shares*-$59/shr = 6.8 B+1.5 B cash= 8.3 Billion. That number seems low considering their huge losses the last few years. I would be shocked if they come out with less than 12 Billion of debt.
 
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Business plan, what plan? Does United have a business plan? It has been how long? They are going to hire consultants for the union! The federal gov't did not give UAL a loan, why? It did not have a solid business plan. This was two years ago. To this date, they still do not have a clue. They do not even know when they will exit chapter 11. I think UAL just like Delta truly believed the price of ticket fares would of gone up by now. The cycle would be complete like it always has and the industry would be in the up swing now. Fuel prices, well, they never go up. Reducing labor cost will only reduce the bleeding of cash. We all know that. It will only buy time.

Anyone know how TED is doing?
 
UAL
Earnings Est

[size=-2]Current Qtr DEC 04
[/size]
Low Estimate -5.16
High Estimate -4.00


[size=-2]Next Qtr Mar-05[/size]
Low Estimate -4.74
High Estimate -3.00
Not sure if this is with or without worker wage and benefit cuts.
 
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The amount of morons on this board never ceases to amaze me. If only some of you guys ran the airlines, all would be well...not!

On a lighter note, happy holidays to everyone.
 

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