UAL to stop furloughing

[Tinpusher]

What's the monthly guarantee at UAL? 75?
Best of luck to all those on the street!

 

[FatesPawn]

Hired 3/20/00

Furloughed 1/15/03

Not expecting a recall until 2010. If it comes early I'd be surprised.

I disagree with your 2010 number. It will either be MUCH sooner, or simply never at all.

If you're basing your estimates on the "no growth strategy" for the next 7 years, UAL will be history. If you aren't growing, you're dying. The no-growth strategy will last until UAL has squeezed the last drop of blood from the turnip of labor and then I believe they will start adding ASM's to routes to city pairs they have turned over to UAX.

UAL has protected it's market share by maintaining its frequency with UAX airplanes. For them to survive, they need national economic growth (since they're core business has always been business travelers), and they need to grow in key markets that only time will tell.

So, if you (or I for that matter...Oct '01...) to be looking at a 9-10 year furlough is impossible. They will be dead long before that if they never grow again.

Besides, the next recession will hit before that time frame and if UAL isn't on strong economic footing they will fold.

 

[GuppyPuppy]

The only way I see that a recall would come sooner is if the company were to grow.

That's why I posted this at the end of my message. I hope you're right. I'm hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

My question is this...How can a company grow indefinitely?

You said that, "If you're not growing, you're dying". I've heard this before and not only from UAL. But, at what point can a company no longer sustain growth? When there is a recession? How would you characterize what Alaska Airlines has been doing (not doing) for almost two years now? All they have done is re-deploy aircraft to longer routes. Growth has been fractional, at best.

I'm not trying to be a smarta$$ in asking these questions, just trying to figure it out (like that will ever happen!).

GP

 

[FatesPawn]

My question is this...How can a company grow indefinitely?

I'd say that as the population grows, you need to be there to pick up the demand. That may be in the form of expanded service to new markets that warrant new service, or it may be in the form of new "companies" that are formed to meet new demand in existing markets - such as TED.

If UAL doesn't pick up the extra demand someone else will. I think that's why I believe that if you aren't growing, you're dying.

 

[Extra300S]

To my Fuloughed bubba's


I was hired 8/99 and Furloughed 7/03

I expect to be back sometime in 2005 or 2006 at the latest. UAL is already short of pilots, that is why they stopped, my prediction is that they will RECALL in 2004 reguardless of what Capt. Forte says. A lot depends on TED, but I am beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I wouldn't resign my number just yet or write UAL off. Most of the Doom and Gloom naysers were 100% wrong about UAL's outcome in BK.

I like to think of all this as AA, DAL, and UAL are all headed into ORD, the weather sucks (Think the Economy) and UAL has no choice but to divert to Indy for more fuel (AA and DAL still are holding) by the time AA and DAL decide to divert as well we are all ready fuled up and ready to "climb on out"

UAL has come along way since 2000.


Later....Extra 300S

 

[P3-Adub]

Well said Extra300s, I think that the exit plan is to not show all of your cards and then get busy with growth and expansion once we emerge. Who will be better prepared with lease and labor costs than UAL ? The latest Aviation Week & Space Tech. magazine has an article describing how the current airspace system is not able to cope with expected growth, was it not around 6% a year growth expected for the forseeable future just before 9/11 ? How many planes were parked shortly thereafter ? Anyone remember 400s being used for Shuttle catch up due to WX and available slots into SFO from LAX, don't see RJs being the answer for ever. RJs have their place however once the economy is cranking again only those with capacity will be allowed into the high density airports, not the 50 seaters. They have their place however 8am into SFO or LGA with 50 pax or 200 is really the issue. I am predicting recalls to begin by summer of 2004 and it will outpace retirements by quite a bit. Unless they are only playing with TED and not taking it seriously, there will be a huge need for pilots, already short from what I am hearing. Hang in there as I am, Halloween won't be the only time to wear that silly hat !

 

[Extra300S]

Hey P-3



Bout' **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** time I read a post as insightful as yours! I just read on the UAL-ALPA board that we will have 900+ retirements from 11/03 to 11/04 so I along with you, expect the recalls to start around July of 2004.

Time do go do some Victory rolls!


Xtra-300S

 

[skykid]

Extra300S - where on the website is the retirement info? I thought the numbers were much smaller than that, but I hope your's are correct.

Here's some thoughts

Bad news first - without an answer to the pension problem, there ain't nobody getting recalled. I think UAL is actively exploring so many solutions, it will get worked out, and I don't believe for a minute labor at UAL wont bargain on this if pushed in the corner.

Another bad terrorist attack and it is over.

Good news - Forte said two weeks ago furloughes would go till Apr or May, now no more after Jan. He also says no recalls in 2004, this could change just as quick.

UAL could actually shed a lot of planes in the 1110 process, and still add capacity! the Airbuses are going to be flying a lot more.

Last Wed through Sun over the Holidays - 1 cancellation! 247mil pax on sunday alone - absolutely incredible. UAL will be the best on time performing airline among the biggest 7 again in 2004 - The Denver Post will put it on page 4 of the business section again, United is going to tell everybody.

Best ray of hope for UAL pilots - it is obvious the current leadership is awesome. Even with Ted, that took some stones and I believe it will pay off. I would challenge anyone to name the miscues current mgt has made and back it up w/facts. There aren't many, if any.

The economy is finally heating up big!

 

[C5 Guy]

I'm diggin' the positive vibes you guys are putting out there. Of the 2172 furloughees, about 2000 of you guys are above me. So, I'm just sitting back and watching the show.

Hopefully, the moths aren't chewing holes in my uniform that's in storage somewhere in California!

 

[Extra300S]

Hey Bubba's


Can't remember what thread on the MEC-ALPA board it talked about Retirements but if I can find it I will post it.

The one thing I do worry about is if they park the Guppy's and go to more RJ's but if TED can pull it off then maybe the 737's can fill some of the mainline thin routes that an RJ cannot.

Anyone elese have any thoughts?