UAL to stop furloughing

[C5 Guy]

Good news, I think---But what the hell do I know about this industry, I'm just a furloughed bubba.

As of today, the Company has announced that all furloughs will stop after the Jan. 8 furloughs. The 100 pilots who will be furloughed on January 8 will be the last furloughs.

Bottom number for pilots after the January furloughs will be 7256.

The company has rerun the numbers of pilots it will need and it found it will not need to furlough through April 2004.

**No recalls planned for 2004.

 

[ukipilot]

What hire date does that number represent?

 

[GuppyPuppy]

The senior December furloughee had a hire date of 11/9/98.

I would imagine that the January furloughs would go back to somewhere in 10/98.

This would bring the grand total of pilot furloughs at UA to 2,172.

If UA makes it, I would bet you'll see a sizable percentage who won't go back. Have you seen their pay rates? Current senior 747/777 driver will make $202/hr. I think the 737/A320 rates top out at $146/hr. Plus the quality of life issues have deteriorated considerably.

Maybe something will change after exiting bankruptcy. Hmm....for a split second I actually believed in that statement!

Cheers!

GP

 

[C5 Guy]

9/28/98 Hire

 

[RightBettor]

C5 Guy!

Sb,

I sent you a PM.

On another note. As far as recalls go, I'm with C5 Guy... 10/30/01 furlough date. Going back? Ha!

 

[furloughed]

I've got you all beat. 10-15-01 furlough date. I gave up on United shortly after that because I knew there would be thousands of pilots placed on top of me on the furlough list not hundreds like many thought. There were too many things coming together to make this the perfect storm. The final straw in the hat was bankruptcy.

I am glad for the people that are going to keep thier jobs and for those that will be recalled next year, but as far as those who have been furloughed for over two years now it is still a bleak prospect waiting to be recalled if that is your only option right now.

Furloughed

 

[GuppyPuppy]

Hired 3/20/00

Furloughed 1/15/03

Not expecting a recall until 2010. If it comes early I'd be surprised.

I'm basing that estimate on the assumption that there won't be any recalls until '05. Once recalls start I still would have about 1200 senior to me to get called back. I think that we may see about 200 recalls per year at best. When you factor in all the early retirements and their current "no growth" strategy it looks bleak for those of us aged 40 or more.

The only way I see that a recall would come sooner is if the company were to grow.

Time for me to move on.

GP

 

[dispatchguy]

A good friend of mine (my best man) was a 11/99 hire on the DEN 727 SO. He has an AF reserve C17 commitment in SEA to keep him busy (along with twin girls).

He expects to never wear his UAL uniform again, except at Halloween.

 

[Extra300S]

Your best man buddy (the 11/99 hire) would have flown something else with UAL if he was a 727 S/O, seeing as we retired the fleet in Oct 2001.

He is not that far from recall.

It aint that hopeless.....

 

[dispatchguy]

He was on the B727 until they were retired, then he didnt fly for six months or so (drawing his guarantee), until he was trained on the 300, then flew DEN 300 F/O until his furlough.

 

[Tinpusher]

What's the monthly guarantee at UAL? 75?
Best of luck to all those on the street!

 

[FatesPawn]

Hired 3/20/00

Furloughed 1/15/03

Not expecting a recall until 2010. If it comes early I'd be surprised.

I disagree with your 2010 number. It will either be MUCH sooner, or simply never at all.

If you're basing your estimates on the "no growth strategy" for the next 7 years, UAL will be history. If you aren't growing, you're dying. The no-growth strategy will last until UAL has squeezed the last drop of blood from the turnip of labor and then I believe they will start adding ASM's to routes to city pairs they have turned over to UAX.

UAL has protected it's market share by maintaining its frequency with UAX airplanes. For them to survive, they need national economic growth (since they're core business has always been business travelers), and they need to grow in key markets that only time will tell.

So, if you (or I for that matter...Oct '01...) to be looking at a 9-10 year furlough is impossible. They will be dead long before that if they never grow again.

Besides, the next recession will hit before that time frame and if UAL isn't on strong economic footing they will fold.

 

[GuppyPuppy]

The only way I see that a recall would come sooner is if the company were to grow.

That's why I posted this at the end of my message. I hope you're right. I'm hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

My question is this...How can a company grow indefinitely?

You said that, "If you're not growing, you're dying". I've heard this before and not only from UAL. But, at what point can a company no longer sustain growth? When there is a recession? How would you characterize what Alaska Airlines has been doing (not doing) for almost two years now? All they have done is re-deploy aircraft to longer routes. Growth has been fractional, at best.

I'm not trying to be a smarta$$ in asking these questions, just trying to figure it out (like that will ever happen!).

GP

 

[FatesPawn]

My question is this...How can a company grow indefinitely?

I'd say that as the population grows, you need to be there to pick up the demand. That may be in the form of expanded service to new markets that warrant new service, or it may be in the form of new "companies" that are formed to meet new demand in existing markets - such as TED.

If UAL doesn't pick up the extra demand someone else will. I think that's why I believe that if you aren't growing, you're dying.

 

[Extra300S]

To my Fuloughed bubba's


I was hired 8/99 and Furloughed 7/03

I expect to be back sometime in 2005 or 2006 at the latest. UAL is already short of pilots, that is why they stopped, my prediction is that they will RECALL in 2004 reguardless of what Capt. Forte says. A lot depends on TED, but I am beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I wouldn't resign my number just yet or write UAL off. Most of the Doom and Gloom naysers were 100% wrong about UAL's outcome in BK.

I like to think of all this as AA, DAL, and UAL are all headed into ORD, the weather sucks (Think the Economy) and UAL has no choice but to divert to Indy for more fuel (AA and DAL still are holding) by the time AA and DAL decide to divert as well we are all ready fuled up and ready to "climb on out"

UAL has come along way since 2000.


Later....Extra 300S

 

[P3-Adub]

Well said Extra300s, I think that the exit plan is to not show all of your cards and then get busy with growth and expansion once we emerge. Who will be better prepared with lease and labor costs than UAL ? The latest Aviation Week & Space Tech. magazine has an article describing how the current airspace system is not able to cope with expected growth, was it not around 6% a year growth expected for the forseeable future just before 9/11 ? How many planes were parked shortly thereafter ? Anyone remember 400s being used for Shuttle catch up due to WX and available slots into SFO from LAX, don't see RJs being the answer for ever. RJs have their place however once the economy is cranking again only those with capacity will be allowed into the high density airports, not the 50 seaters. They have their place however 8am into SFO or LGA with 50 pax or 200 is really the issue. I am predicting recalls to begin by summer of 2004 and it will outpace retirements by quite a bit. Unless they are only playing with TED and not taking it seriously, there will be a huge need for pilots, already short from what I am hearing. Hang in there as I am, Halloween won't be the only time to wear that silly hat !

 

[Extra300S]

Hey P-3



Bout' **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** time I read a post as insightful as yours! I just read on the UAL-ALPA board that we will have 900+ retirements from 11/03 to 11/04 so I along with you, expect the recalls to start around July of 2004.

Time do go do some Victory rolls!


Xtra-300S

 

[skykid]

Extra300S - where on the website is the retirement info? I thought the numbers were much smaller than that, but I hope your's are correct.

Here's some thoughts

Bad news first - without an answer to the pension problem, there ain't nobody getting recalled. I think UAL is actively exploring so many solutions, it will get worked out, and I don't believe for a minute labor at UAL wont bargain on this if pushed in the corner.

Another bad terrorist attack and it is over.

Good news - Forte said two weeks ago furloughes would go till Apr or May, now no more after Jan. He also says no recalls in 2004, this could change just as quick.

UAL could actually shed a lot of planes in the 1110 process, and still add capacity! the Airbuses are going to be flying a lot more.

Last Wed through Sun over the Holidays - 1 cancellation! 247mil pax on sunday alone - absolutely incredible. UAL will be the best on time performing airline among the biggest 7 again in 2004 - The Denver Post will put it on page 4 of the business section again, United is going to tell everybody.

Best ray of hope for UAL pilots - it is obvious the current leadership is awesome. Even with Ted, that took some stones and I believe it will pay off. I would challenge anyone to name the miscues current mgt has made and back it up w/facts. There aren't many, if any.

The economy is finally heating up big!

 

[C5 Guy]

I'm diggin' the positive vibes you guys are putting out there. Of the 2172 furloughees, about 2000 of you guys are above me. So, I'm just sitting back and watching the show.

Hopefully, the moths aren't chewing holes in my uniform that's in storage somewhere in California!

 

[Extra300S]

Hey Bubba's


Can't remember what thread on the MEC-ALPA board it talked about Retirements but if I can find it I will post it.

The one thing I do worry about is if they park the Guppy's and go to more RJ's but if TED can pull it off then maybe the 737's can fill some of the mainline thin routes that an RJ cannot.

Anyone elese have any thoughts?

 

[Extra300S]

FOUND THIS LITTLE SNIP in the SSC Minutes from LAXFO:

UAL will be short of pilots this Summer!





Furloughs/Recalls

Furloughs completed on Jan 8, 2004. The SSC analysis of manpower needs suggests that we will be short of required pilots to meet summer schedules. Refer to Director Roichek’s “Crystal Ball” and you can see the amount of training required to meet flying requirements. Based on these facts, I would hope to see recalls after Chap 11 exit, but the Company says, “no” at this time.

 

[P3-Adub]

Having a positive outlook is certainly more fun than the doom and gloom we see all too often on these boards. Like my 8 year told me, it takes 15 muscles to smile and 42 to frown ??? Something like that.

1,200 from the bottom, 2000 from the bottom ? Both big numbers however it was not all that long ago we saw 1000+ newhires a year, I was one of them and now I am sitting it out watching from the sidelines too. Big airline, big numbers. Hope we don't get rid of too many narrow guage RJ replacements ! Pretty soon the 737-300 will just be another RJ, what do you mean it only seats 120 ??? Oh but I digress. The retirement issue is a big one however I am sure, and I mean sure, that there will be a solution with this because we have come way too far now to have this be the stumper. How many naysayers were betting there would not even need to be a discussion about exiting chapter 11 let alone when and how ? Not out of the woods just yet however there is and axe in one hand and a bigass chainsaw in the other ! Glenn is going to pull this one off and be the airline industry's new model CEO. Again, only my prediction. OK, maybe a little too cheery but hey, tis the season to be jolly !

Lets see, with less than 20 years to go to retirement if I were recalled today ? You bet, 5 years down the road I am not so sure. Then again that is what I said before I was offered a class date to begin with ! We have all just witnessed history in the making within the airline industry, nothing like it in the past, who knows about the future. Jets for terrorists ? Been there done that we should all hope. I don't think Grandma in seat 22C would let Mohammed just walk up and take things over again. Gross missuse of airline profits ? Shame on you once, shame on me twice. Economic downturn?, furloughs to be more common is my guess unfortunately. Scope ? What is that ? Different day, different world, different career. Hope to get back soon !

 

[Mr.B]

Sounds like we are in the same boat...seniority-wise that is. Keep your chin up and here's to keeping our flying where it belongs.

 

[GuppyPuppy]

Extra300s-

Where have you seen the 900 pilot number for retirements?

That is almost triple the number that I was shown when I was hired back in '00.

Has the company sweetened the deal for pilots to retire early?

Nine hundred retirements in one year would be great, but I would like some solid evidence before I can believe that number. Please provide us with that information.

GP

 

[UALU30]

Retirements and increase in flying

Here are the retirement numbers:
2004 227
2005 287
2006 304
2007 298
2008 257
2009 239
2010 211

Actual body needs are historically 20% higher with medicals and early retirements.

More interesting is the announcement of a 5% increase in block hours in 2004. Currently 150,000 block hours, that would be an increase of 750 which equals around 350 more pilots. Add 350 to 270 for the retirements and you come out with what the MIA LSC is saying around a 600 pilot shortfall for 2004.

Fingers crossed!

 

[Extra300S]

I got the 900 number off of a thread on the ALPA-MEC website it just says that number will be age 60 guys, I wonder if it already inlcuded early outs? I don't know.

Where do you all want to have a RECALL party when the last guy is recalled?

Happy Torque rolls!

 

[Andy]

Re: Retirements and increase in flying

Here are the retirement numbers:
2004 227
2005 287
2006 304
2007 298
2008 257
2009 239
2010 211

Actual body needs are historically 20% higher with medicals and early retirements.

More interesting is the announcement of a 5% increase in block hours in 2004. Currently 150,000 block hours, that would be an increase of 750 which equals around 350 more pilots. Add 350 to 270 for the retirements and you come out with what the MIA LSC is saying around a 600 pilot shortfall for 2004.

Fingers crossed!

UALU30,
I hand computed all age 60s through 2010 on the latest seniority list (Jul 22 2003) and with early retirements, 2004/5 is quite a bit smaller. I'm out of town right now, but will post them when I get a chance.
Off the top of my head, age 60s for the rest of 2003 was 60 and 2004 was around 120.
I'm counting on the block hour growth to get us back on property. I'll be ~1500 from recall after the January furloughs and expect to be back on property anywhere from 2006 to 2009. There are too many factors that effect recall to come up with anything closer than a WAG.

 

[skykid]

Andy, those are the same numbers I hear - about 180 for the next 18 months to retire. For the furloughed guys though, have you thought about this -- lets say you have an even 500 numbers above you getting back. How many of that 500 do you think are actually coming back? How many have new active duty committments and can't come back if they wanted to? How many line pilots are gong to get tired of the new pay/commute/work rules and move on? I don't know the answer to any of these questins bet I bet it will be a factor.

 

[Andy]

Skykid, I'm still out of town, so I don't have the retirement numbers. However, I agree that there will be more than a few who are on military orders or locked into a two year committment at their current employer. And yes, there will be those that burn out from the current schedule at UAL.
I expect most to come back; I don't think that there will be many who take a pass on returning to UAL.
I also expect to see decent mainline growth after UAL comes out of chap 11; that will drive recalls more than anything else.

 

[C5 Guy]

From what I know, we're allowed 6 years military leave from UAL. That 6 years doesn't begin to accrue until you get recalled from furlough and then your status changes from furloughed to mil leave. This is allowing some to return to AD to pick up a retirement and then return to their line number at UAL.

I've committed to USAF until 2008 for now and would have to do a few more than that for AD retirement. I'm going to try and set a company record for being a half-winger, 10 years plus. Wonder what the longest probation period a UAL pilot ever endured was?