UAL gets a 3rd Try @$1.1M

[Boeingman]

How is $2B+ going to become 800 mil when over the last year of "losses" UAL has added over 1 B in cash? Is the A Plan going away? Probably. Is UAL? No. Period. Full Stop. Despite the loss of 2 aircraft, a recession, a war, SARS, a huge increase in fuel, and locusts. You better hope NWA, or the LBC, saves you from oblivion. Prattle elsewhere.

Well Brain Surgeon, the article was in the WSJ last week about UAL's forecasted end of year cash position. But why bother reading about facts when you can keep living in your dream world.

 

[EAP]

The WSJ is just as much as a collection of "dreamland speculations" by singletons and finacial dreamers than anywhere else. If I had a nickel for every darned crack "wallie" with a way off forcast and prediction I wouldn't need an A fund. The bottom line is that if UAL liquidates strategically, there are still a heck of a lot of vartiables out there that would equally support a future LCC powerhouse as a spiraling TWA clone.

 

[Ty Webb]

How is $2B+ going to become 800 mil when over the last year of "losses" UAL has added over 1 B in cash? Is the A Plan going away? Probably. Is UAL? No. Period. Full Stop. Despite the loss of 2 aircraft, a recession, a war, SARS, a huge increase in fuel, and locusts. You better hope NWA, or the LBC, saves you from oblivion. Prattle elsewhere.

Pretty simple. Keep losing approx. $100 mil a month, like you have been, and you'll be there. If you can;t make money in May ($96 mil loss) then you can't make money in any month.

Sure, we know, the majority of the money lost was due to "one-time charges" and "items associated with bankruptcy". Don't forget to pay McKinsey and Co. for that stupid "Ted" idea, while you're at it.

If you hold a UAL seniority number, and you aren't actively looking for another job, you are a fool.

 

[Mr.B]

Pretty simple. Keep losing approx. $100 mil a month, like you have been, and you'll be there. If you can;t make money in May ($96 mil loss) then you can't make money in any month.

Sure, we know, the majority of the money lost was due to "one-time charges" and "items associated with bankruptcy". Don't forget to pay McKinsey and Co. for that stupid "Ted" idea, while you're at it.

If you hold a UAL seniority number, and you aren't actively looking for another job, you are a fool.

Who here is the "Fool"?

UAL made an OPERATING profit. Do you really think they want to "show" that profit in light of their current endevours?

Ted is "stupid"? A B717 flap operator is an expert on marketing, accounting, and airline management? I can tell you, I am not.

A puke beating the keyboard at his PC spewing his crap should tell a UAL pilot how to run his/ her career? You are flying for a "successful" airline and are now an expert on airline careers?

I ask again....who is the fool?

 

[EAP]

If you hold a UAL seniority number, and you aren't actively looking for another job, you are a fool.

Wow, total FLAP indeed. Please consider absorbing some humility my little Roger Ramjet... It may do you some good, a heck of a lot sooner than you think.

This is the aspect that I truly cannot stand about air line pilots and those trying to be air line pilots. The back stabbing, holier than thou attitude and salavation at other pilot's misfortunes are just really not attractive. And we bag on managers. Well, I see a lot more cohesiveness in corporate america than I do in pilots. It's really unfortunate.

 

[SpeedBird]

"You suck!"

"No....you suck more!"

And the flightinfo board drops another notch as a valued place for "professional" pilots to meet and exchange worthwhile information about the airline/aviation business world.

I think everybody needs to step back from their computers and take a breather from the excessive hositility than seems to pervade these boards everyday.

 

[UALjan15]

Lots of speculation about the future of defined pension plans......

My observations/predictions:

1) ATSB does not want to back a UAL that is hamstrung by billions in pension shortfalls. The administration is hoping that without the ATSB loan, UAL will have to cut the pensions loose to exit BK, and this will have a domino effect at all of the legacy carriers.

2) This domino effect may take a few years, but as legacy airlines go through BK (and most, if not all, will take the trip), the pensions will be stripped one by one.

3) UAL pilots have fought the good fight for their pensions, and the fighting isn't over.....but the writing is on the wall, and the average UAL guy knows that as a minimum, the A Plan is toast, and the B Plan will more closely resemble a 401K. Those that don't realize this have their heads in the sand.

We'll see if it pans out this way. I wish it didn't have to be this way, but I'm afraid this is an unstoppable train....

UALJan15

 

[banned username 2]

the A Plan is toast, and the B Plan will more closely resemble a 401K.

Could someone spell out what the current A & B Plans consist of at UAL (or other carriers)... Not being an airline guy I am not all that familiar...

Thanks!

 

[Ty Webb]

Who here is the "Fool"?

UAL made an OPERATING profit. Do you really think they want to "show" that profit in light of their current endevours?

An "operating profit" doesn;t mean squat. They took in more in revenues than they spent on DOC, during the one of the best months of the year. Boy, where can I buy some of that stock?

Ted is "stupid"?

Yup. You don;t need a weatherman to tell you when it's raining, and you don;t have to have to be a Marketing Genius to tell when something is bound to flop. They paid Mckinsey and Co millions for this, and even a Flap Operator from Sector 7-G can tell you that the last 2 airlines McKinsey and Co. did this kind of work for (other than Delta) both went Chapter 7 . . . . . . two former European carriers . . . . do a search on the PPRUNE boards for further details.

A puke beating the keyboard at his PC spewing his crap should tell a UAL pilot how to run his/ her career? You are flying for a "successful" airline and are now an expert on airline careers?

I've done plenty in the business world, Sport, and I base my observations on many things, not just from the airline seat I occupy 50 or 60 hours a month. Maybe you should do the same.

I ask again....who is the fool?

We'll see in the coming months, I guess.

 

[Mr.B]

I've done plenty in the business world, Sport, and I base my observations on many things, not just from the airline seat I occupy 50 or 60 hours a month. Maybe you should do the same.


1200 posts? Just what is it you do in the business world?

 

[Boeingman]

The WSJ is just as much as a collection of "dreamland speculations" by singletons and finacial dreamers than anywhere else. If I had a nickel for every darned crack "wallie" with a way off forcast and prediction I wouldn't need an A fund. The bottom line is that if UAL liquidates strategically, there are still a heck of a lot of vartiables out there that would equally support a future LCC powerhouse as a spiraling TWA clone.

Today the Wall Street Journal reported, "if the government ultimately turns UAL down a third time, the carrier will be forced to overhaul its business plan, cut its expenses further and hunt for a much larger, costlier financing package in the open market. The company isn't in any immediate danger of liquidation, having adequate cash. It also is flying into the busiest travel season of the year. But its unrestricted cash, which stood at nearly $1.9 billion on March 31, is expected to fall to under $800 million by year end, according to Jim Higgins, an analyst for Credit Suisse Equity Research. 'A comfortable level ... would be at least three times that amount,' he said in a research note," the newspaper reported.

So you're calling the people over at Credit Suisse a darned crack wallie", singleton and a financial dreamer?

Denial is not going to help your cause or company. Apparently, it still runs very deep over there.

 

[EAP]

So you're calling the people over at Credit Suisse a darned crack wallie", singleton and a financial dreamer?

Denial is not going to help your cause or company. Apparently, it still runs very deep over there.

Nice. Lots of ASSuming going on. UAL isn't mine, and I'm not in denial. I'm a realist. Things aren't as simple as "They need 3 times as much cash so in effect they will simply implode and be totally liquified as a result..." I never specifically referred to Credit Suisse, however, and while we are at it, they have their fair share of crack Wallies too. And yes, the ankle biters that are currently salavating at the chance of a lot of guys being out on the street will probably be on their 3rd LCC operated by Lorenzo by the time the swan song finally does play out for ol' Yonited.

 

[skykid]

I wouldn't get worked up about the WSJ article. There are far too many variables in play to predict a UAL cash balance at the end of the year, and since the Credit Suisse folks don't tell you what their assumptions are, it is really meaningless. I love the WSJ and read it online every morning. Are they biased against UAL and organized labor? Well, about 2 years ago they published an editorial titled KILL UNITED. You tell me.
The strategy in Ch11 has been to hold on to the route structure, which is UAL's best feature, while scaling down greatly domestically. UAL now has more international flights than before 9/11, and about 600 less domestic flights a day. I would expect mgt to try and wring more savings out of labor instead of selling assets and routes. This is going to be harder than last year when the Gulf war and the SARs nonsense helped motivate employees to give back.

 

[Boeingman]

Nice. Lots of ASSuming going on. UAL isn't mine, and I'm not in denial. I'm a realist. .

ASSuming? Wow, your 3 year old help you with that? Pretty easy to ASSume when you take such an undefendable and intransigent position. If it sounds like a Brain Surgeon it usually is a Brain Surgeon. My apologies Sir. Or actually, it should be my congradulations given their financials. A realist? LOL, OK whatever you say.

Things aren't as simple as "They need 3 times as much cash so in effect they will simply implode and be totally liquified as a result..." .

Hmmmm, I'm having trouble finding that statement made by the WSJ and the gentleman from Credit Suisse.

I never specifically referred to Credit Suisse, however, and while we are at it, they have their fair share of crack Wallies too...

You're right. You ASSumed it was just some reporter from the WSJ implying about a situation with no data to back it up. First off can you define "crack wallie". My 15 year old didn't have a clue as to it's meaning.

Well you better tell just about every financial institution on the planet your hypothesis about Credit Suisse. Especially since their data and reports are used by the very same lenders and financial institutions that will make or break UAL after their 3rd denial with the ATSB. You can't possibly be this simple can you?

And yes, the ankle biters that are currently salavating at the chance of a lot of guys being out on the street will probably be on their 3rd LCC operated by Lorenzo by the time the swan song finally does play out for ol' Yonited.

Lorenzo has been banned from the industry (Where have you been?). UAL's pay and benefits will be reduced to those at the LCC's. Many of the ankle bite are there because of UAL's attitudes towards others during their own financial misfortunes.

 

[EAP]

This is just too funny. I was tempted to quote the brain surgery tid bit, but wow, it's just all too perfect and "intransigent" in itself. LOL on the dogma anyhow.

Since you were so quick to use "crack wallie" in earlier posts in a way that looked like you knew what it meant, I ASSumed you were on the same sheet, but since your 15 year old wasn't able to decode, here goes with the enigma machine. Crack means hotshot, and Wallie is a term for another wall street expert, hence wall-ie.

Anyhow, to respect the forum a little I'm just going to accept that we don't necessarily agree, for various different reasons. We both have a right to an individual position. Grownups can disagree these days, ulike your FO's and kids.

 

[EAP]

..and now that, as expected, the 1.1B ATSB loan has been denied, we'll all be seeing what happens when the rubber meets the road....

 

[AirBoard]

Is that a tumble weed that just blew by.....

You can hear a pin drop on this thread now. 3rd application denied sure put a lid on this debate. NOW WHAT!