UAL furloughees

[Peanut gallery]

TK just can not train that fast

Even in the best of times TK could only train 100 recalls per month. With the reduction in fleets since those good times the most TK projects they could bring back is 68 per month. So taking that number and applying it to 1980 still on furlough then it would take 28 months to just train returning crewmembers.

 

[skykid]

Right, but of that amount on furlough, you might get 1,000 back. The further the recalls go, the percentages of coming back will be less, in my opinion. 95 early retirements so far in 2005, 33 pilots have resigned this year, plus roughly 250 a year turning 60 - with attrition alone it will take awhile to get everybody back. that is assuming of course United survives and stays the same size or grows, which seems likely, and there are no mergers, which could mean more furloughs.

 

[FutureTEDpilot]

Anyone care to guess how many more recalls in the fall?


I am about 250-300 from the top so it is getting close. Do not know if I will go back, have to think about that...

 

[skykid]

Future, I would guess if you are 250-300 from the top, probably at least 100-150 of the people above you wont go back. Wouldn't you think that is close? According to the ops hotline, they are going to recall an extra 15 in August to cover the winter holiday schedule. That doesn't seem like a big number. I can tell you right now reserve pilots are deadheading all over to cover the schedule. You would think the pilot to aircraft ratio would have to get to a level soon where they are going to have to replace the retirements on a 1 to 1 basis.

 

[Peanut gallery]

1,000 only going back may be a little off

People are by-passing now but when it comes time to give up their number a lot more will go back than we think. The picture should be clearer at that time and the choice should be easier. One way or the other 1,000 pilots going back as someone said would still take over a year to occur at max blast for TK.

 

[P3-Adub]

Any Leaves of absence being given ?

I'll take the entire 2 year bypass and more if able to wrestle it out of them. Need to see substantial growth and a REAL business plan that will ensure survival, at least as much of a guarantee as possible. Definitely don't want to go through all of this again. Cannot take another pay cut to get my foot back in the door. Hoping that it will be a tough choice and not a given to not go back. Until the letter comes though, not that big of a concern. Oh how I miss field standby and covering other domicile's flying !

Sky Kid,

How is the mood in general these days ? Still pretty bad or is there now some hope with the , hopefully, last of the wage and benefit cuts ?

 

[skykid]

My mood is always good. I think you can see with the number of pilots - 33 - just flat out resigning with no early retirement, plenty are voting with their feet. And good for them. If you track the intent to repurchase, on-time stats, lost luggage, and number of complaints, it is amazing how good the company has been operationally the last several months. The fact that CAL and American, even with these fuel prices, are back in the black is a great sign for the big boys. Yes, both those airlines have been infinitely better managed long term than United, but I think we are seeing that multi-type aircraft airlines with global ops can compete when their costs are controlled.

 

[arthompson]

How many people are still furloughed?

 

[skykid]

CHICAGO, Aug. 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Beginning Dec. 15, 2005, United Airlines is adding flights to eight sizzling beach destinations in Mexico and the Caribbean, including brand-new service between Washington, D.C. and Nassau, Bahamas -- the second largest destination in the Caribbean.



"Our new service to Nassau increases the number of beach destinations we offer our customers in the Washington, D.C., area, and provides access to another vacation hot spot for all our customers to enjoy," said Greg Taylor, senior vice president - Planning. "This new service is in line with United's ongoing effort to bolster our international service, and represents a second consecutive year of significant growth to popular Mexican and Caribbean leisure destinations." Along with United's new service between Washington, D.C. and Nassau, the company will also offer new roundtrip service between Washington, D.C. and Montego Bay; Punta Cana; and St. Maarten; as well as new service between Denver and Cozumel, Mexico; and Chicago and Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

That's the kind of news you need!

 

[Chappysan]

First, good to see you again UAL78, takes me back to the old days of this board that seem like a lifetime ago. I tend to agree with you, although I'm putting a little more padding rather than get my hopes up. There are 300 retirements coming up in both 2006 and 2007. With recall numbers running 2x-3x the number of bodies that they are bringing back, the wild card is growth in 06/07. My personal belief is that there will be roughly 5% growth each of those years, and that the recall process is constrained right now by the BK exit in that to secure exit financing there is a dollar number being given to the bankers, and that number is predicated on a certain number of pilots. Once the exit is fulfilled, the expansion and the recalls will, I believe, be much faster than expected. Also, the MEC sent out a summary of the recently won grievance on hour caps, which the company already stated would render them at least 100 pilots short immediately. Anyway, I'm going to hedge my bets and guess that, minus any terrorism, etc., all 1,800 or so will be offerred recall by mid-2007-that doesn't mean physcially in the puzzle palace, just an offer that many will bypass.