Things a shrinking company may not usually do...

[milehigh6080]

[Psychic hat on]
But I see a new CBA with 30% Raises (with COLA) for the Pilots. Position of SIC eliminated ... all go to PIC pay.
[Psychic hat off]

I'd love for you to be right- that's pretty much the only way I'd be able to justify taking a recall, but I just don't see that happening. There's no precedent that I'm aware of for an all captain company and if I was given a contractual raise to captain rates + 30%, I'd be very expensive to recall vs a new hire. In my opnion, the "pilot shortage" if it materializes will hit the regional level first and won't hit the major level till after NJA has a new CBA.

 

[gunfyter]

I should have put a disclaimer in there ... Captain Dad put me up to everything in that post .... :laugh:

New CBA ... won't see that for 5 or 6 years... Right in middle of pilot shortage....

The reason there will be no SIC pay is because there are PICs right now junior to a lot of the current SICs. There has to be some kind of bypass.

 

[milehigh6080]

I should have put a disclaimer in there ... Captain Dad put me up to everything in that post .... :laugh:

New CBA ... won't see that for 5 or 6 years... Right in middle of pilot shortage....

The reason there will be no SIC pay is because there are PICs right now junior to a lot of the current SICs. There has to be some kind of bypass.

True, I'm sure the company will drag their feet on the CBA until the pilot "shortage" is in full swing and they'll definitely need to sweeten the pot to attract talent.

When I came to NJA in 2007, I specifically chose it over a 121 career because I perceived it as more stable. Well, we see how the "stability" worked out and the pay is below what I can make at even the quasi-major airline that I landed at, let alone the legacies who should all be negotiating their way out of concessionary contracts soon. I was ok with that becasue of the stability and the fact that I found the flying more interesting than the 121 world.

When everyone is hiring in force, NJA will have a very very hard time attracting pilots- especially if there is little growth in the forecast as well as the completely unpredictable seniority advancement that comes along with not having a retirement age. The legacies, with their incredible retirement forecasts, offer a young pilot a huge golden opportunity.

At 31 years old, I'd be insane to accept a recall to NJA with the current contract and growth/retirement forecast coupled with the much lower pay rates than the majors can offer versus taking a class date at a legacy or even just riding it out at my quasi-major and hoping the right legacy buys us and we luck out with a somewhat fair integration.

That being said, I really miss being at NJA and wish I could return. I wish you the best of luck with the next CBA both because I still have a lot of good friends there and because I'd LOVE to be able to justify a return to NJA. I'd still come back there for a slight discount to major/legacy rates, but there is obviously a limit on that. The enjoyment of the flying at NJA is worth something to me, but it doesn't buy diapers or pay my mortgage, so the pay rates definitely need to be adjusted to entice most of the 495 to return, let alone to attract new hires who may not have the affinity for fractional flying that most of the 495 have.

I think market conditions will be right for the NJA group to secure a much better contract, but I seriously doubt that it'll be an all captain payscale. The overwhelming majority of the voting pilot group there is already on the captain payscale, so I don't know why they'd spend negotiating capital to get the minority of SICs brought up to that level. Bypass pay went away with the 2005 contract, didn't it? Or maybe it was IBB, but regardless, the company has already set the precedent that they want no part in that.

 

[jonjuan]

When everyone is hiring in force, NJA will have a very very hard time attracting pilots- especially if there is little growth in the forecast as well as the completely unpredictable seniority advancement that comes along with not having a retirement age. The legacies, with their incredible retirement forecasts, offer a young pilot a huge golden opportunity.

Very astute perception, Milehigh. There will be no growth, only aircraft replacements. That may add to profits, which is good, but ultimately only good/stable for the top 50%, especially with no age limit. Fly until you're 75.

 

[milehigh6080]

especially with no age limit. Fly until you're 75.

The lack of an age limit at NJA is the number one thing that is going to make attracting new pilots difficult.

With no predictable retirement age, accepting a job at NJA is basically a bet on the fact that the company will grow rapidly. I think that would be a very poor bet with the current conditions.

At the legacies with the upcoming retirements, growth is nice, but not necessary. No growth is required for seniority advancement when there is a healthy progression due to retirement.

At NJA, seniority is a game of musical chairs and the music stopped sometime in late 2006.

 

[BentOver]

I understand how replacement aircraft vs. growth could easily mean no growth.. But on the other hand, 2010,2011 (and 2012 most likely) were very difficult years for everyone. It's not just a Netjets problem. And NETJETS shrunk just as much as they said they would.. This shrinkage was all planned...Netjets had record sales in '06 and '07. It would have been a monumental task to grow (in this economy) with so many contracts up. Going forward the economy will improve and there will be far fewer contracts up. Which could mean positive owner growth.

I sometimes think it's short sighted to think that a company, Netjets or otherwise, has zero plan to grow over say the next 5 years or so. I know Luthi thinks sales should have been back to normal by now, but the economy just doesn't support it at the moment. Add in CS, and maybe another Frac. changing their business, and quickly things could change.

Add in what MileHigh stated about the legacies and some SIC's wanting out. Plus new pilots not coming to NJA in droves due to the big's hiring. Things could get interesting in 4-5 years..... Nothing stays status quo forever. We had the negative change in 2009-now... Soon I believe there will a change for the positive...Hell, even USAIR is hiring..

Just my optimistic outlook. As of late I am refusing to buy into whatever some in the Union are selling about doom and gloom. Last I checked, besides the furlough, staffing hasn't changed in almost 3 years....

 

[gunfyter]

I don't think there will ever be a growth like we had before. If NJ has figured out how to make money in a stagnant and even shrinking market ... they will probably be happy with that plus whatever profit new replacement airplanes brings.

Hear what you say on the SIC population but I don't see a new CBA with junior guys as PICs while more senior collect SIC pay.... This is a union shop you know.

 

[milehigh6080]

I don't think there will ever be a growth like we had before. If NJ has figured out how to make money in a stagnant and even shrinking market ... they will probably be happy with that plus whatever profit new replacement airplanes brings.

Hear what you say on the SIC population but I don't see a new CBA with junior guys as PICs while more senior collect SIC pay.... This is a union shop you know.

I agree with you on the lack of growth, which is why I also agree that a very very lucrative pay scale as well as some nice quality of life features are going to be required to attract recalls or new hires once industry hiring starts to pick up.

As far as the junior PIC vs senior SIC argument, I just can't buy that unless it is a case where the company wrongfully upgraded out of seniority order. Every airline has PICs who are junior to some SICs who have chosen to delay upgrade for better quality of life. If you choose not to take the first upgrade available and a more junior pilot gets it, that's no violation- union shop or not. If the music stops playing and you're left with only a chair on the right side of the aisle, I'm sorry, but that was the risk you took when you made the choice to delay upgrade.

There will need to be some serious improvements to pay and quality of life in the upcoming contract to keep and retain pilots, but a single payscale with everyone making captain money will 100% absolutely never happen. Just forget about it and focus on things that are actually achievable- burning bargaining capital on that issue is just silly and a waste of time.

 

[BentOver]

I agree 100% there probably won't be another 2006 or 2007 growth rate...

But all this shrinkage, never growing again talk is very short sighted......
Certain Union members stilll say NJA is overtaffed by 200 (used to be 300).... It seems they have been overtaffed for a couple years now... Why haven't they layed off those pilots then?

If the company was planning on continuing to shrink. (really shrink, not an a/c here or there) why would they bother keeping an overstaffed situation? Say they knew they were shrinking 30 more a/c in 2012...that would be another 150+ pilots they could lay off. Add that to the 200 the Union says we are overstaffed... They layed of 500 of us basd on knowing they were going to shrink 100 a/c. They did that back in early 2010. Yet it took them almost 2 years to dispose of 100 a/c....If they knew or had a plan to shrink further they should easily be able to see a need for less pilots. Which does not appear to be happening.

There are some pilots who say that based on the weekly Union gathering, that the un-employment line was gonna grow this Spring.. Time will tell. Spring has another 2 months to go

 

[gunfyter]

the company wrongfully upgraded out of seniority order.

Some would debate you on that....

I have a friend who bitches to me weekly about that issue.... and we shouldn't have done the IBB and the NJA/NJI merger. All I can say is

" If we hadn't done the merger ... you would still be an SIC"

That doesn't answer the mail for him as he continues to bring it up every time I talk to him... How I screwed him for voting for the IBB....

 

[nordo_2]

I agree with you on the lack of growth, which is why I also agree that a very very lucrative pay scale as well as some nice quality of life features are going to be required to attract recalls or new hires once industry hiring starts to pick up.

As far as the junior PIC vs senior SIC argument, I just can't buy that unless it is a case where the company wrongfully upgraded out of seniority order. Every airline has PICs who are junior to some SICs who have chosen to delay upgrade for better quality of life. If you choose not to take the first upgrade available and a more junior pilot gets it, that's no violation- union shop or not. If the music stops playing and you're left with only a chair on the right side of the aisle, I'm sorry, but that was the risk you took when you made the choice to delay upgrade.

There will need to be some serious improvements to pay and quality of life in the upcoming contract to keep and retain pilots, but a single payscale with everyone making captain money will 100% absolutely never happen. Just forget about it and focus on things that are actually achievable- burning bargaining capital on that issue is just silly and a waste of time.

That is your best case scenario. Not furloughing again. Mile high’s original reason for choosing NJ over 121; Stability. As was mine. I for one prefer 121 flying. It’s virtually no work. No janitorial servicing, no flight attendant duties…etc. Being able to enjoy the moment of flying, instead of looking over your shoulder and starring at that mess.

You cannot beat a decent airline, when you are living in base. It could be upwards of a decade or more before there are any recalls.

NJ is a good job. In my opinion, not a good career for the bottom quarter. NJ will be around for years to come, as a boutique operation. And probably profitable.

The amount of changes that would be needed to make it a premier career destination is a wet dream. The imbalance of wok schedules for one. I’ve done them all. I can’t say I like any of them. The workday for west coasters is horrific. 500 a.m. show for a 1000 a.m. go (because they can), on the east coast. Then the last day: 11 a.m. show for a 100 p.m. airline to get home by 900. Is the norm.

I Just can’t see a southwest type of scheduling where you can bid a.m. schedules vs. p.m. schedules, ever being adopted at this place. That’s one aspect of the contract, which would set NJ apart. More money to the tune of 30%. Man I don’t see that happening. To top it all off with an aviation novice at the helm: “And a little child shall lead them”. This guy? Really? Hand picked to manage. Not lead.

When there is another contract. Many years from now. It will have improvements, but not great ones.

 

[gunfyter]

30% ... I thought I was being conservative.

In 1998, a year 14 Captain on 7&7 earned $96K. Under the 2007 CBA that Captain earns $136K. But adjusted for inflation that's just $97K Try it
CPI Inflation Calculator

6 years from now when we get a CBA ... 30% might not even bring us back to 1998.

 

[BentOver]

Just to clarify, the company is still shrinking.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but we still are not seeing growth.

Now maybe it'd be more accurate to say that NJA doesn't have any plans to close its doors altogether, otherwise why the investment in Ipads (amongst other large expenditures). That statement I could agree with.

Sadly, we have not reversed the trend towards being smaller, although it has slowed quite a bit. Hopefully, 2012 will be the year we turn the corner and start seeing a net positive with aircraft sold.

Should have clarified my original post to more closely match this statement.... I didn't mean that NJA hadn't shrunk or was still seeing a/c leaving the fleet. But like you said, it is a big investment (among others) that indicates NJA is not going anywhere. And I don't feel it will go much further than 400 a/c (give or take a few)


I don't share some opinions that NJA will shrink to 300 a/c... I also believe that NJA managment has intent to grow a bit from its current size. Whether the economy will allow that to happen is anyone's guess. But seeing how less than 8 months ago a doublle dip recession was a worry and now that is off the table. And also that the US economy has seemingly picked up steam since Nov. Sales should show some results from this. Maybe not immediate, but over time things should improve.

 

[nordo_2]

Should have clarified my original post to more closely match this statement.... I didn't mean that NJA hadn't shrunk or was still seeing a/c leaving the fleet. But like you said, it is a big investment (among others) that indicates NJA is not going anywhere. And I don't feel it will go much further than 400 a/c (give or take a few)


I don't share some opinions that NJA will shrink to 300 a/c... I also believe that NJA managment has intent to grow a bit from its current size. Whether the economy will allow that to happen is anyone's guess. But seeing how less than 8 months ago a doublle dip recession was a worry and now that is off the table. And also that the US economy has seemingly picked up steam since Nov. Sales should show some results from this. Maybe not immediate, but over time things should improve.

300 a/c. Now that’s optimism. My gut tells me something different. In ten years I’m thinking NJ will be about a 200 a/c operation, +/- 50. With EJM taking up the balance of the business. Definitely not the 600 a/c, 5000 pilot force that Derinda so emphatically promised.

 

[BentOver]

Someone lemme know when the next round furloughs occur... I'll be the guy sleeping in the corner waiting for something to happen...

They certainly are taking their sweet time.. Wish my Crystal Aviation Ball went out 10 years... Think about how wrong most of us have been over the last 10 years with all the supposed true rumors. (This board doesn't even exhist if it weren't for all the rumors that never came true)

I use the weekly 411's as my last source of info... Therefore I am slightly more positive... I've read just about every aviation article written, researched every a/c order and cancellation since 2009, tried to use common sense of what I would do if I was planning to furlough employees, none of it is adding up to reducing to 250 a/c.... All those planes they have disposed of..do you know how old they were? I do (I researched the age of every single a/c on NJA's FAA certificate).. They were old, past their intended useful age.. Heck, most of the X's are going on ten years or more....The fact that they are leaving the fleet should not be a shock to anyone....The company has made a/c orders.. The exact thing that Luthi complained about all this time.... I haven't seen a mass hiring spree by EJM or any of NJA's competition. Which tells me that the competition isn't doing all that well either, and EJM isn't gaining numeruous amounts of a/c either.


Hell, management quit using the threat of furloughs when Sokol left. If I were in management, knowing I was gonna furlough people anyways, I'd be hanging that over every pilots head to try to reduce the contract as much as possible. Instead they have said "no furlough planned, 10 yr plan has every one recalled that wants to be" etc etc.....Tough to gain concessions when you make every thing out to be good....?

again, I've looked at EVERYTHING NJA has done (everything public anyways) and I really don't see the devastation. Like I posted earlier, they even brought FIJI back. Apparently they are actually listening to owners. Instead of driving them away in order to reduce owners.