The Pilot Shortage is Almost Here!!!!

[bobbysamd]

Pilot shortage

Kit may be softpedaling it now, but he has pushed "pilot shortage" since at least 1987. Back then, he said forty-thousand pilots would be needed during the next ten years. As recently as three years ago, he continued to spout that palaver, as published in the Honolulu Advertiser . Please click on the article; it's too lengthy to reprint here. I saw the comment at the end of the article about how a recession could cool off the "demand" for pilots. This is the same crap Kit was putting out in 1987, and he's disseminating it the same way. Notice how Kit is attributed as the source in the article.

Even after 911 and the ensuing furloughs, Kit was minimizing the situation, as found in this post-911 article in USA Today

Nationwide, there are now more pilots on furlough than there are available jobs — 7,500 vs. 6,000 expected hires this year, says Kit Darby, whose firm Air Inc. helps pilots find work.

"It's not as bad as some people think," says Darby, "but it's certainly nothing like before 9/11."

(emphasis added)

Come on. 6,000 pilot openings last year? Not what I was reading last year.

So, you ask, what was the harm with me falling in step with Kit on the pilot "shortage"? As I wrote above, the harm came in the seduction. Once more, Kit made it sound so easy. I still remember his articles about such places as WestAir/United Express. Captain upgrades in eight months. He made it sound like it was nothing to get an interview. Build your quals to published limits, send in your resumes, and multiple phone calls will come in days - because there was a "shortage" of pilots. He made navigating through the pilot interview sound like a piece of cake for anyone with at least a modicum of intelligence and flying ability. None of this was true at all. I learned the truth with no help from Kit. He could have been more truthful about garnering an interview, that it would likely take repeated sendings of resumes and apps, that the odds were against you because of the fierce competition, and that a pilot interview was more like an interview to hire a CEO of a large corporation. But if Kit told it like it really was people would have been scared off and he would not have been able to build FAPA/Air, Inc. into the collossus, empire and monopoly it is. Therein lies the harm.

 

[Hugh Jorgan]

Bobby,

Your experience with Airinc seems to be dated. I can only speak from my recent experience with the company. That RECENT experience was positive and worth my money with no illusions. I would recommend the same service to people whose situation might be similar to what mine was.

Regarding that 3-year old article, I read it and can't find anything that doesn't seem factual. If there are flaws in that article, I'd be curious to know what they are. The context of the article was the exceptional turnover rate Island Air had at the time. They used quotes from Kit Darby and others to support their facts. Sorry, I'm just having a hard time finding anything wrong with someone offering a legitimate service. I've been ripped off before and I know what it feels like. The product I received from Airinc was not a ripoff. I'm sorry your experience differed.

---a satisfied Airinc customer.

 

[bobbysamd]

Kit Darby sophistries

Selected Darby quotes from the referenced Advertiser article :

“Every year has been better than the last,” said Kit Darby, president of AIR Inc., an Atlanta firm specializing in pilot career consulting.

“What we’re seeing right now is retirements are about half of the demand,” Darby said.

The SOS since at least 1987.

Age is no longer the factor it once was. A decade ago, the average new pilot was in his or her late 20s. Today, the average age is over 30.

My, my, how times have changed. Don't believe a word of it. Age is still very much a factor. I've written plenty about my experiences and conclusions. However, I have a friend who had a regional interview at about the time that Kit was quoted. He found out that he was flat-out rejected because of his age.

Height and weight restrictions also have been liberalized. “They’re taller, shorter and fatter,” Darby said. “The airlines have gone from keeping the door closed to opening the door and letting them in.”

That is also a bunch of malarkey. I did not realize that "tall" was a problem for airline pilots. Perhaps there is no discrimination against women who are shorter, but there is against men. Take it from someone who knows.

While I don't know this for sure, it wouldn't surprise me if the Advertiser received some P.R. flak or news release flak in the mail from Kit and/or saw something on the wire, and decided to localize the story, without challenging Kit on his "facts." You have to do that when working a news story. You don't take people at their word. You have to ask some followup questions. I'd bet that the Advertiser never called Kit.

Hugh, I'm glad that Kit helped you. Just the same, there is little doubt that Kit peddles half-truths and false hopes to wow his customers.

 

[enigma]

Bobby,

Your experience with Airinc seems to be dated. I can only speak from my recent experience with the company. That RECENT experience was positive and worth my money with no illusions. I would recommend the same service to people whose situation might be similar to what mine was.

Regarding that 3-year old article, I read it and can't find anything that doesn't seem factual. If there are flaws in that article, I'd be curious to know what they are. The context of the article was the exceptional turnover rate Island Air had at the time. They used quotes from Kit Darby and others to support their facts. Sorry, I'm just having a hard time finding anything wrong with someone offering a legitimate service. I've been ripped off before and I know what it feels like. The product I received from Airinc was not a ripoff. I'm sorry your experience differed.

---a satisfied Airinc customer.

Hugh, your post points to why some people hate Kit and some love him. On one hand, you obviously(unless your profile is misleading) went the military route, you came out "qualified" to gain civilian employment. You needed information on civilian career, Kit provided it, you're happy.
On the other hand, thousands of civilians, not having the timing/eyesite/luck/etc, to be a fighter pilot, attempt to get to the point at which they can compete with you. BUT they don't understand the market. They don't know that ten thousand (approx) qualified pilots are already (in any pilot market, not just now) walking around looking for a job. They read adds that state that airlines will hire 7000 pilots this year. Quite simply, they are looking at a different side of AirInc than you are. They see the continual pimping of a pilot shortage, you go to the seminars and hear the truth. Why does AirInc./Kit Darby speak out of both sides of his mouth? I don't know, but there is no doubt that AirInc is the main contributer to the continuing impression amongst the uninformed that pilots are in demand. If you doubt that, I need only to point you to any popular aviation magazine. For example, Flying magazine. Flying has a regular feature that speaks to pilot hiring. AirInc is their only source. In Aviation Week a couple of weeks ago, AirInc placed the "airlines will hire 7000 pilots this year" advertisement.

I have no respect for doublespeak and AirInc is a master of such language. They convince the kids to spend big dollars on a career, which leads to an oversupply of pilots, then they charge you for a seminar to tell you that there is an oversupply of pilots. I can only conclude that Kit Darby/AirInc, is more interested in profit than he is interested in truth and honor.

regards,
8N

 

[Typhoon1244]

The Pilot Shortage is Almost Here!!!!

He is here! Tom Shortage. I flew with him last week.

 

[Hugh Jorgan]

Enigma,

Perhaps yours is the most balanced view of this issue. Clearly there are two valid sides to this story. Your point is well made. I'm still satisfied, but I can see how others might be misled.

 

[MYFpilot]

...And you thoght Kit was evil, check out the Comair a.k.a. Delta Connection Academy website.

Regional Airlines are growing at an unprecedented pace. Between now and the year 2005, most established airlines will retire up to 50% of their current pilots. This will create an estimated 30,000 new openings in the cockpit.

30000 new pilot jobs in a year in a half!!

 

[WrightAvia]

You guys got the wrong spin on this...

It's a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots, that they are talking about.

 

[bobbysamd]

Please, Lr-d, take me now

quote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regional Airlines are growing at an unprecedented pace. Between now and the year 2005, most established airlines will retire up to 50% of their current pilots. This will create an estimated 30,000 new openings in the cockpit.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
<Sigh>

 

[bobbysamd]

"Qualified" pilots

It's a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots, that they are talking about.

Define "qualified." You can't.

What do you use as a barometer of "qualified"? What is the yardstick? The government, and ICAO, too, I believe, define a "qualified" 121 airline captain as a person who holds an ATP and a First Class Medical. To obtain an ATP, you must have no less than 1500 hours (Notice that I did not say "at least" 1500 hours.). Therefore, according to Uncle Sam and probably the ICAO, too, you can be an airline captain with 1500 hours, the certificate, and the medical. So, for the purpose of this discussion, let's use these criteria as the barometer. What I'm saying, then, is what's good enough for the government should be good enough for the airlines. Right?

Not exactly, because, for whatever, reason(s), the airlines establish far stricter requirements than Uncle Sam. For example, twelve years ago most commuters wanted 1500 total-500 multi and an ATP, to be a First Officer, not a Captain. In truth, to be competitive you needed far in excess of those requirements. But this was defined as a "qualfied" pilot.

So, what happens if airlines cannot find people who meet these quals? Is that a shortage of "qualified" pilots? Once more, not exactly. The airlines change their requirements and, voila, there is a fresh crop of "qualified" pilots. To wit: When I joined this board a couple of years ago I read how commuters were hiring at 1000 total and 200 or less of multi. And some were whining that those requirements were too strict! Coming from the era I came from and paying scant attention to aviation in the interim, that absolutely, totally, blew my mind. The whining did not, however.

The point is that companies change their definition of "qualified" pilots according to their needs (and whims). Therefore, Kit, there is no pilot shortage - and there is no shortage of "qualified" pilots. Saying otherwise is baloney.

I'll get off my soapbox.

 

[bobbysamd]

Old Chinese Proverb

[T]housands of civilians, not having the timing/eyesite/luck/etc, to be a fighter pilot, attempt to get to the point at which they can compete with you. BUT they don't understand the market. They don't know that ten thousand (approx) qualified pilots are already (in any pilot market, not just now) walking around looking for a job. They read adds that state that airlines will hire 7000 pilots this year. Quite simply, they are looking at a different side of AirInc than you are. They see the continual pimping of a pilot shortage, you go to the seminars and hear the truth. Why does AirInc./Kit Darby speak out of both sides of his mouth? I don't know, but there is no doubt that AirInc is the main contributer to the continuing impression amongst the uninformed that pilots are in demand . . . .

(emphasis added)

Confuscius said, "Man with forked tongue should not kiss balloon."

 

[HoursHore]

I am going to second Hugh's motion as a miltary guy getting out. At the very least air inc has given me a place to start my job search, and we all know the hardest part of any journey is the first step.

As a military guy, most of my squadronmates had attended air- inc job fairs, met people, and got an idea of what their resume should look like. The most valuable thing the job fairs accomplished was getting me in the transition mindset.

Now that I have been at it a while, basically the only thing I need is the magazine, and most of the information in that is available on the web. But the program and the Job fairs were very useful for a while. At the very least I ran into a lot of buds from flight school I hadn't seen in a while.

After the second one though, I did realize that they were all the same, and my main two companies used a web-based application, and the job fairs weren't making a bit of difference with them.

 

[bobbysamd]

FAPA origins

I am going to second Hugh's motion as a miltary guy getting out. At the very least air inc has given me a place to start my job search . . . .

That was the mission of FAPA, Air, Inc.'s original incarnation, when Lou Smith started it years ago. He started FAPA to help ex-military pilots make the transition to civilian flying.

Sometime during the '80s, FAPA foundered. During the mid to late '80s times were good. Deregulation was in its early years and there was a hiring boom. So maybe it appeared there was a pilot shortage. Kit took over FAPA, contrived the "pilot shortage," grew FAPA, and turned "pilot shortage" into an art form and cottage industry, replete with hiring and interview manuals, dress recommendations, resume preparation, and advertisers of pilot schools, pilot improvement services, vision improvement vendors, and mail-order college degrees. Everything you need to start and built a professional aviation career. You learned the truth thereafter, when you found there were few, if any, takers for your services. There is no "pilot shortage."

The strange thing is that during the horrible times of the early '90s and worse times of today Kit has not changed his message. He still peddles "pilot shortage." It was a half-truth then and is a half-truth now. That is what offends so many people.

 

[HoursHore]

I will have to say, Kit's little "how to pass your Sim/ improve your instrument scan " irks me to no end. I would watch that and go "Who does he think he is talking to? We all instrumented rated pilots with hundreds of hours in the goo. " If you go to a job fair, skip the seminar, just go to the actual Job Fair.

 

[enigma]

I am going to second Hugh's motion as a miltary guy getting out. At the very least air inc has given me a place to start my job search, and we all know the hardest part of any journey is the first step.

HoursHore,

As I implied when I responded to Hugh, there are two sides to AirInc.

The side you see is the side that helps a qualified pilot get a job.

The side that people find objectionable is the side of AirInc's business that continually adds to the number of pilots who attempt to make this a career. AirInc produces more misleading information than the Democratic and Republican National Committees combined. The ad placed in Aviation Week a couple of weeks ago is the perfect example. At the time that there are over 10,000 airline pilots on furlough; AirInc is telling potential newbies that the airlines will hire 7000 pilots this year.
That is propaganda on the order of the news media reporting that Reagan GUTTED the Federal budget when he cut the rate of GROWTH from 30% down to 20%.

The sad truth is this: a glut of pilots exists for this year and most likely for the next four or five years if not longer; and only airline management (and AirInc) gains when the market is flooded with pilots.

Kit Darby may have helped you get a job, but he also has helped guarantee that you won't make as much as you could if he hadn't helped create a buyers market for pilots.

regards,
8N

 

[pilotyip]

glut of pilot?

There has always been a glut of pilots since WWII, read the books about flying in the 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's all before Kit, there were always more pilots than there were good jobs. I would bet there are 10 times as many flying jobs now than there was in 1965, and 11 times as many pilots chasing those jobs, the glut of pilots is always there, it is the quaility of the new hire entrant than changes with demand. Kit had nothing to do with anyone's pay at any airline, it is the career choice itself that drives the supply, flying is fun.

 

[enigma]

PilotYIP, I agree with your basic point. Flying is a fun, "romantic" endevour and pilots will always be willing to accept the fun as partial compensation.

I disagree with your contention that AirInc has has nothing to do with the current oversupply. Your profile and your post history show that you are a military trained pilot who is most likely nearing retirement. You have had a hand in hiring, so I'll conceed that you have decent information on such things, but I doubt that you have had a first hand look at the modern entry level of the modern pilot market. That entry level is largely college flight programs. I taught at, and maintain contact with, a state run college flight training program. I can tell you that around one quarter of the students were children of professional pilots, but I would venture to guess that half of them are there because they read numerous articles about a lucrative pilot career. Most, if not all, of those articles used one source of information. FAPA, or it's successor, AirInc. These kids have been lead to believe that they will be RJ Captains in 24 months and be in a narrowbody in less than four years. Based upon that misleading information, they or their parents, spent $70 to $100 thousand dollars at ERAU, etc. If a student spends $100 grand on a BBA, and doesn't like his first profession, he can most likely change focus and make a lateral move. That person can choose to utilize his education in a similar field, he can quit if he doesn't like the pay. He can take a job in another industry and wait until wages in his prefered field reach a level that he finds satisfactory. Or he can just find another field in which his training is applicable.

If a potential professional pilot realizes that the career is not as lucrative as he had been lead to think, he has no portability of his education. This leads to a decision to go ahead and work for nothing/PFT in an attempt to eventually salvage the $100K he spent on flight training. I know way too many pilots who would have spent their college money on a different career, and flown as a hobby, had they known the career path before they paid their money.

My experience tells me that the people and organizations who make their money by attracting new pilots to the profession, have contributed to the continuing pilot overage and the associated low wages.

regards,
8N