The Pilot Shortage is Almost Here!!!!

[AA717driver]

I wouldn't make any blanket statements..

About pilot hiring futures, pilotyip. Not defending my fading career at a legacy carrier, but you never know how this industry will turn.

I don't know if the numbers of pax will ever be as high as they were pre-9/11 but I really doubt they will be as low as they have been. Besides, JB, AirTran and SWA can't fly everyone. Can they...? TC

P.S.--I'm currently trying to escape my job at a legacy carrier for QOL purposes. I have no doubt that my current company will rebound and those employed there will have a bright future.

I think.

Well, they may.

OH, GOD! WE'RE ALL DOOMED!

 

[wil]

The best advice my dad gave me as a freshman in 86 was to get my 4 year degree. 10 years later, when I decided to return to pursue flying I enrolled in a 2 year degree program and transferred all my under-grad work. Why another degree? Well, it is one more item to put under the education section of my resume. You can never go wrong obtaining more education. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Av8trxx]

The only pilot shortage I know of is that I am short of a job.

Ditto!

 

[bobbysamd]

I disagree with Yip on the degree issue

The best advice my dad gave me as a freshman in 86 was to get my 4 year degree. 10 years later, when I decided to return to pursue flying I enrolled in a 2 year degree program and transferred all my under-grad work. Why another degree? Well, it is one more item to put under the education section of my resume. You can never go wrong obtaining more education. Just my 2 cents.

Absolutely. Moved and seconded.

 

[Hugh Jorgan]

Re: Pilot shortage

I, too, was one who fell in step with Kit. I don't regret it at all because it motivated me to change careers

If that's the case, what's the harm?

It's a con and snow job. He conveniently ignores the roadblocks and potholes to building a career. Kit sells dreams. No reality check whatsoever.

I must refute this. While pursuing a civilian flying job last year, I obtained a membership to Airinc's website and attended a convention. Nowhere did I see or hear anything from Kit indicating a "pilot shortage". Quite the contrary. His message was loud and clear that one must make themselves competetive in an extremely tight market. Of course, he offered a lot of different products to help in this endeavor, some which I found useful and others that I didn't. I probably tossed about 300 bucks into educating myself (quite conveniently, I might add) in an industry in which I had little knowledge other than the basic flying skills. In 2002, I landed 4 job interviews, one of them as a direct result of my attendance at an Airinc convention. All four interviews were successful and I attribute that in no small part to the information I gained via Airinc. I'm not saying it's for everyone, but I found it a very good value for my time and money. I also went into the process with my eyes wide open due in large part to info gleaned from Airinc and what I could sift out of this board between all the mudslinging.

 

[bobbysamd]

Pilot shortage

Kit may be softpedaling it now, but he has pushed "pilot shortage" since at least 1987. Back then, he said forty-thousand pilots would be needed during the next ten years. As recently as three years ago, he continued to spout that palaver, as published in the Honolulu Advertiser . Please click on the article; it's too lengthy to reprint here. I saw the comment at the end of the article about how a recession could cool off the "demand" for pilots. This is the same crap Kit was putting out in 1987, and he's disseminating it the same way. Notice how Kit is attributed as the source in the article.

Even after 911 and the ensuing furloughs, Kit was minimizing the situation, as found in this post-911 article in USA Today

Nationwide, there are now more pilots on furlough than there are available jobs — 7,500 vs. 6,000 expected hires this year, says Kit Darby, whose firm Air Inc. helps pilots find work.

"It's not as bad as some people think," says Darby, "but it's certainly nothing like before 9/11."

(emphasis added)

Come on. 6,000 pilot openings last year? Not what I was reading last year.

So, you ask, what was the harm with me falling in step with Kit on the pilot "shortage"? As I wrote above, the harm came in the seduction. Once more, Kit made it sound so easy. I still remember his articles about such places as WestAir/United Express. Captain upgrades in eight months. He made it sound like it was nothing to get an interview. Build your quals to published limits, send in your resumes, and multiple phone calls will come in days - because there was a "shortage" of pilots. He made navigating through the pilot interview sound like a piece of cake for anyone with at least a modicum of intelligence and flying ability. None of this was true at all. I learned the truth with no help from Kit. He could have been more truthful about garnering an interview, that it would likely take repeated sendings of resumes and apps, that the odds were against you because of the fierce competition, and that a pilot interview was more like an interview to hire a CEO of a large corporation. But if Kit told it like it really was people would have been scared off and he would not have been able to build FAPA/Air, Inc. into the collossus, empire and monopoly it is. Therein lies the harm.

 

[Hugh Jorgan]

Bobby,

Your experience with Airinc seems to be dated. I can only speak from my recent experience with the company. That RECENT experience was positive and worth my money with no illusions. I would recommend the same service to people whose situation might be similar to what mine was.

Regarding that 3-year old article, I read it and can't find anything that doesn't seem factual. If there are flaws in that article, I'd be curious to know what they are. The context of the article was the exceptional turnover rate Island Air had at the time. They used quotes from Kit Darby and others to support their facts. Sorry, I'm just having a hard time finding anything wrong with someone offering a legitimate service. I've been ripped off before and I know what it feels like. The product I received from Airinc was not a ripoff. I'm sorry your experience differed.

---a satisfied Airinc customer.

 

[bobbysamd]

Kit Darby sophistries

Selected Darby quotes from the referenced Advertiser article :

“Every year has been better than the last,” said Kit Darby, president of AIR Inc., an Atlanta firm specializing in pilot career consulting.

“What we’re seeing right now is retirements are about half of the demand,” Darby said.

The SOS since at least 1987.

Age is no longer the factor it once was. A decade ago, the average new pilot was in his or her late 20s. Today, the average age is over 30.

My, my, how times have changed. Don't believe a word of it. Age is still very much a factor. I've written plenty about my experiences and conclusions. However, I have a friend who had a regional interview at about the time that Kit was quoted. He found out that he was flat-out rejected because of his age.

Height and weight restrictions also have been liberalized. “They’re taller, shorter and fatter,” Darby said. “The airlines have gone from keeping the door closed to opening the door and letting them in.”

That is also a bunch of malarkey. I did not realize that "tall" was a problem for airline pilots. Perhaps there is no discrimination against women who are shorter, but there is against men. Take it from someone who knows.

While I don't know this for sure, it wouldn't surprise me if the Advertiser received some P.R. flak or news release flak in the mail from Kit and/or saw something on the wire, and decided to localize the story, without challenging Kit on his "facts." You have to do that when working a news story. You don't take people at their word. You have to ask some followup questions. I'd bet that the Advertiser never called Kit.

Hugh, I'm glad that Kit helped you. Just the same, there is little doubt that Kit peddles half-truths and false hopes to wow his customers.

 

[enigma]

Bobby,

Your experience with Airinc seems to be dated. I can only speak from my recent experience with the company. That RECENT experience was positive and worth my money with no illusions. I would recommend the same service to people whose situation might be similar to what mine was.

Regarding that 3-year old article, I read it and can't find anything that doesn't seem factual. If there are flaws in that article, I'd be curious to know what they are. The context of the article was the exceptional turnover rate Island Air had at the time. They used quotes from Kit Darby and others to support their facts. Sorry, I'm just having a hard time finding anything wrong with someone offering a legitimate service. I've been ripped off before and I know what it feels like. The product I received from Airinc was not a ripoff. I'm sorry your experience differed.

---a satisfied Airinc customer.

Hugh, your post points to why some people hate Kit and some love him. On one hand, you obviously(unless your profile is misleading) went the military route, you came out "qualified" to gain civilian employment. You needed information on civilian career, Kit provided it, you're happy.
On the other hand, thousands of civilians, not having the timing/eyesite/luck/etc, to be a fighter pilot, attempt to get to the point at which they can compete with you. BUT they don't understand the market. They don't know that ten thousand (approx) qualified pilots are already (in any pilot market, not just now) walking around looking for a job. They read adds that state that airlines will hire 7000 pilots this year. Quite simply, they are looking at a different side of AirInc than you are. They see the continual pimping of a pilot shortage, you go to the seminars and hear the truth. Why does AirInc./Kit Darby speak out of both sides of his mouth? I don't know, but there is no doubt that AirInc is the main contributer to the continuing impression amongst the uninformed that pilots are in demand. If you doubt that, I need only to point you to any popular aviation magazine. For example, Flying magazine. Flying has a regular feature that speaks to pilot hiring. AirInc is their only source. In Aviation Week a couple of weeks ago, AirInc placed the "airlines will hire 7000 pilots this year" advertisement.

I have no respect for doublespeak and AirInc is a master of such language. They convince the kids to spend big dollars on a career, which leads to an oversupply of pilots, then they charge you for a seminar to tell you that there is an oversupply of pilots. I can only conclude that Kit Darby/AirInc, is more interested in profit than he is interested in truth and honor.

regards,
8N

 

[Typhoon1244]

The Pilot Shortage is Almost Here!!!!

He is here! Tom Shortage. I flew with him last week.

 

[Hugh Jorgan]

Enigma,

Perhaps yours is the most balanced view of this issue. Clearly there are two valid sides to this story. Your point is well made. I'm still satisfied, but I can see how others might be misled.

 

[MYFpilot]

...And you thoght Kit was evil, check out the Comair a.k.a. Delta Connection Academy website.

Regional Airlines are growing at an unprecedented pace. Between now and the year 2005, most established airlines will retire up to 50% of their current pilots. This will create an estimated 30,000 new openings in the cockpit.

30000 new pilot jobs in a year in a half!!

 

[WrightAvia]

You guys got the wrong spin on this...

It's a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots, that they are talking about.

 

[bobbysamd]

Please, Lr-d, take me now

quote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regional Airlines are growing at an unprecedented pace. Between now and the year 2005, most established airlines will retire up to 50% of their current pilots. This will create an estimated 30,000 new openings in the cockpit.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
<Sigh>

 

[bobbysamd]

"Qualified" pilots

It's a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots, that they are talking about.

Define "qualified." You can't.

What do you use as a barometer of "qualified"? What is the yardstick? The government, and ICAO, too, I believe, define a "qualified" 121 airline captain as a person who holds an ATP and a First Class Medical. To obtain an ATP, you must have no less than 1500 hours (Notice that I did not say "at least" 1500 hours.). Therefore, according to Uncle Sam and probably the ICAO, too, you can be an airline captain with 1500 hours, the certificate, and the medical. So, for the purpose of this discussion, let's use these criteria as the barometer. What I'm saying, then, is what's good enough for the government should be good enough for the airlines. Right?

Not exactly, because, for whatever, reason(s), the airlines establish far stricter requirements than Uncle Sam. For example, twelve years ago most commuters wanted 1500 total-500 multi and an ATP, to be a First Officer, not a Captain. In truth, to be competitive you needed far in excess of those requirements. But this was defined as a "qualfied" pilot.

So, what happens if airlines cannot find people who meet these quals? Is that a shortage of "qualified" pilots? Once more, not exactly. The airlines change their requirements and, voila, there is a fresh crop of "qualified" pilots. To wit: When I joined this board a couple of years ago I read how commuters were hiring at 1000 total and 200 or less of multi. And some were whining that those requirements were too strict! Coming from the era I came from and paying scant attention to aviation in the interim, that absolutely, totally, blew my mind. The whining did not, however.

The point is that companies change their definition of "qualified" pilots according to their needs (and whims). Therefore, Kit, there is no pilot shortage - and there is no shortage of "qualified" pilots. Saying otherwise is baloney.

I'll get off my soapbox.