The industry's future / Career advice

[llowwelll]

Como say what?

Thanks T1Bubba and Lonestar for raising the flag. I have no idea how the thread turned into a 4-yr degree issue based on my original post. My orginal post was simply about my theory of what would become of the industry in the future and what you all might think of it. I don't think I alluded in any way to the issue of whether or not it was advantageous to have a 4-yr degree. Obviously, based on the posts here, it's an issue that merits some discussion but not really in the context of this thread.

 

[abxaviator]

To get back to your original subject, I agree there are major (no pun intended) changes around the corner for the pax carriers. I too feel the majors will need to try to conform their domestic business model to more closely match those of the LCC's, but the cog in the gear is their int'l routes. One reason the LCC's are LCC's is because they don't have to support a worldwide route structure. I really don't see how it would be feasible for a major to attempt to become a niche int'l only carrier. My crystal ball doesn't seem to be working any better than anyone else's, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see just how screwed up things really do get.

On the other side of the airfield, perhaps us Fr8 Dawgs will actually finally get some respect as we are making a profit as we speak and are currently negotiating a new contract which even our CEO agrees will provide an improvement in wages and rules. Right about now I'm glad I stayed here versus heading to the "greener pastures" of UAL or AMR a few years ago.

 

[bobbysamd]

Quals and industry future

I cannot understand what Yip has against getting the degree. Especially with all the education he has. He interjected the degree issue into this discussion.

To answer his question, I have a B.S.B.A. in Accounting with a concentration in English. Not that helpful for aviation, perhaps, except that I could balance my logbook, understand available income tax deductions for pilots, prepare semi-literate cover letters, and not sound like Beavis and/or Butthead when speaking or writing. A big benefit for me was that I could check off that square on the app. Clearly, companies give weight to the degree.

As a practical matter, we're discussing competitive quals. Others will have the degree. There's no reason why you can't have it, too. You need it to help level the playing field.

I like llowwelll's assessment. The majors, as we have known them, will shrink. They will contract out more of their shorter routes to the regionals and their RJs because it will be cheap for them. This means there will be fewer opportunities for those $200K jobs at the majors. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of the name-brand majors redo themselves as LCCs. United is the first one to come to mind.

 

[duckman]

I'm on board with abxaviator...The major's cannot become "Niche" international only carriers....that just doesn't work.
In fact..was the last major airline to try that call Pan Am???

I see the majors continuing to fly long (sts) domestic routes between big hub cities with their wide bodies and then "farming out" the shorter and smaller passenger quantity routes to regionals that are partnered/owned by the major airline. (Which I believe is where the majors are going now)

BUT...and a big BUT; Realize the big 4 (American, United, Delta, Northwest) were making good profits in the mid to late 90s. That environment could return, and with it the business traveler paying those rich prices for a seat out of the cattle car with more than a peanut and cup of coke. It just doesn't appear that way right now...does it??

The LCCs will always be around, expecially the ones w/a good business model. The game always changes....golf anyone??

 

[Checks]

YIP,

You are 100% correct. I cant believe any pilot would care more about QOL and his family than his flying career. My personal goal is to have a Major Airline job, 3 divorces, family that doesnt recognize me, and 3 kids who hate me because I was never around. But hey, I fly a 747!!

 

[stb]

Here's my aviation outlook...

Crj 70's will replace the MD-80's, 737's at major airlines. More flights, more frequency Delta is doing this now out of DFW.

A Delta pilot friend of mine is worried that the MD-80's will be gone in the next 5 years because of the growth of Delta's regionals.
Rj 70's replace the MD-80's and the MD-80 pilots replace the retiring age 60 pilots at Delta.

There are over 1000 orders for rj's now not including the order for USAirways and United if and when they emerge out of bankrupcy. 300-400 rj's more for each airline.

Crj's will only get bigger; Crj 90's Mesa (Freedom) is getting delivered this Spring 03.

So basicly, the "regional" airline will be the last stop in many pilots careers. The airline executives will put pilot groups against pilot groups for the lowest bidder to do the work. Sure pay will go up in the commuter level but only a couple of dollars everytime the contract is negotiated and that happens every 3-5 years pending the length of the contract.

Most International flying will be code shared by other foreign airlines that are subsidized by that country. Air France, JAL etc.
Some trans-con flying will also be code shared by foreign airlines. For example, an Air France flight from LAX to CDG with a stop in JFK will be able to sell seats on the LAX to JFK segment. Which foreign airlines are not allowed to do today. The flight will have Delta code sharing passengers.
This is known as caboge. This was defeated in the early 90's but will most likely become a hot topic again.

The industry will show it's hand in the next few years when the big numbers of age 60 pilots retire. If some of the furloughed pilots are recalled to replace them things could stay the same. If no firloughed pilots are recalled to replace them, then the major airlines will shrink and let the commuters be the workhorse of the industry.