The industry's future / Career advice

[llowwelll]

I am trying to make some important career decisions right now and one of the important and hard-to-predict variables that goes into those decisions is what the airline industry is going to become. I'd like to bounce my theory off of you all as to what is going to happen to see whether or not I'm out to lunch on this issue.
Here's my theory. The rise of the low-cost-carriers (LCC's) like SWA and JetBlue and to a lesser extent, the regional airlines, will force the former major airlines (UAL, DAL, American, etc) to contract and begin to fall by the wayside. The major airlines cannot and will not be able to compete domestically with the LCC's and such due to the disparity in cost efficiencies and debt load between them and the LCC's. Along with this, we will no longer see extremely high ($200K or more per year) pilot salaries for pilots with advanced seniority. Pay scales will more closely align themselves with the likes of the LCC's (which aren't bad at all...they just aren't REALLY high the way they are today for say a 30-year Delta captain). Pilot salaries will still be good but will be lower on average in the future than they are today. No airline will be able to afford to pay pilots so much anymore and stay competitive. I think that the LCC model for running an airline will become predominant and that the majors of today will either adapt themselves to niche roles like international routes, conform themselves to a LCC model at great cost, or simply go bankrupt. Maybe one or two will survive. As a result, hiring for the majors of today is probably many years off (at least five) but hiring for the LCC's will continue at a slow pace for now and pick up steam as the economy recovers over the next several years.
Again, I'm certainly no expert, I may be entirely out to lunch on this whole thing and I really hope I'm wrong but that's what I'm conjecturing right now and basing career decisions on. Please let me know what you all think.

 

[Andy Neill]

Your assessment seems valid to me.

 

[pilotyip]

LLC's don't care about 4 yr degrees

LLC's don't care about 4 yr degrees, they want quality flight time and they give it more weight than a 4 yr degree. Start building your time early to be competive.

 

[TWA69]

I am going to give you the best piece of advice I wish someone would have given me about 15yrs ago. GET YOUR LAW DEGREE

 

[PilotAg]

I absolutely disagree with you yip. Get the 4 year degree. Right now is an excellent time to be in school with the airlines at a stand still. Southwest definetly looks at whether you have a 4 year degree or not. Look at the numbers. Why have that mark against you right off the bat. Once you get around 4000 total hours, there isn't much difference between you and the 6000 hour pilot. And if for some reason the airline gig doesn't work out, you have a degree to fall back on. I don't care if it is in home making, that peice of paper will get you farther. How can anyone discourage someone from furthering their education? Makes no sense at all. Good luck to you.

 

[CaptWidgeon]

I agree with PilotAg, and especially with TWA69. SWA doesn't require a degree but some others do/did. When I interviewed with SWA I was asked if I had a degree, not what it was in, where I went to school or any particulars just if I had one. One of these days the other majors will start hiring, everyone's situation is different, but what if you don't get on with one of the airlines that doesn't require a degree, if you don't have one, a degree, you won't have to worry about even applying at the others. The thing I keep thinking about is what if I'm in a car accident tomorrow and loose and eye or a hand, I've got something to fall back on.

As far as TWA's post I've thought about going back and getting a law degree then specializing in aviation. I thought it would be great to defend pilots who need help from those deviatants in Ok City who are always looking over our shoulders. Plus if I have enough time in the industry I think the experience would be nothing but beneficial. Wouldn't you love to ask some Fed if they've ever shot an NDB approach to mins with nothing but raw data in blowing snow to a hardpacked runway at night? Oh, you've never shot an NDB? Your honor I'm through with this witness.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

 

[vburgh]

As far as how major pax airlines will emerge, LCCs seem to be the way to go--especially in light of the new threat to National Railway Labor Act arbitration procedures. The future of major cargo carriers should be very stable (UPS,FDX, DHL, Airborne), and resemble steady (international) to stagnant (domestic) growth overall--they will more directly correlate with how well the economy is going, and not be impacted by TSA "hassle factor."
If you'd like to avoid future furloughs, cargo may be the way to go.

 

[KlingonLRDRVR]

TWA69 has a pretty good idea...

For me, been there, done that and back at it... I left flying for a living back in the early 90's and went to law school. I prosecuted for 5 years and was a partner in a law firm. I saw aviation was "hot" with hiring so I jumped back into it when I was offered a left seat in beat up old lears haulin checks. I had a blast but 9/11 and poor management put too high of a price on a major airline slot for me. I needed, but more so, I wanted to take care of my Wife and 2 boys. My old partner called this summer and asked if I wanted to come back with him and I made the jump . I personaly did not want to fly checks for 5 years. It is very hard on my body with 12 hour duty days and 3 hours of drive time. I miss the Rush of flying checks but overall I am happier now back in the law. No offence to flying, but I enjoy the mental challenges and learning that goes on everyday now. Maybe I am still in a hooneymoon state since returning but I am glad I have the option to do so. If you do go to law school do work during your first year. Most schools greatly discourge you from doing so. I did not work my first year and I wish I had. As soon as I started working during school my grades picked up. Just like anything in life if you focus on one thing to the exclusion of everything else the everything else in the end will be your downfall. Best of Luck in you're endeavuors.

KlingonLRDRVR

 

[pilotyip]

For Agpilot

Again as far as the 4 yr degree goes if you have real degree that leads to a job, like Teaching, Nurse, Engineer, even law, something to fall back on it is a good thing, but most major airline wantabe's have aviation degrees in Applied Aviation Techonolgy from South Bummblebee State, which is not in big demand except to manage an FBO as a back up. If you want an aviation career, start flying and start your career, Too much value is put on the value of 4 yr degree in avaition and it is mispalced. What does this guy want to do, become a pilot and get a flying job no matter what, or does he want to have a "life style" making lots of money, lots of days off, only work when he wants to by bidding lines he likes, and free travel all over? It makes me think of the pilot at meet at Air Inc in ATL in 2000 who was pursuing life style, before he had the hours for his first job. Any one reading this board can make it as a pilot and eventually make it to a point where they can live on what they make, it may not be a "major", but it might be a good charter operation, a good corporate job, or something involving flying airplanes. It is hard, it is lots of moves, you go where the next job is, it is living in flop houses with 4 other pilots and one bathroom down the hall, it not buying any new underwear for one year, it is driving a car that you jump start from the battery you keep in the apt on a charger, it is being 100% subservient to your bosses wishes until you can move to your next job and he gives you a good recommendation, it is saying no to your brothers birthday party, it is saying no to being home a Christmas. Come to think about it, this sounds alot like being in the Navy, except for the underwear part. They made us get new stuff. You do not need a 4 yr degree to make it as a successful pilot, in fact you may get to the non "major" level of flying quicker without the time wasted in the pursuit of the 4 yr degree, you need a talent for flying, you need a most gracious personality that focuses on what you can give and not what you can take, and a goal is sight that you will pursue no matter what. Family, girl fiends (more than one night) , babies, do not count, they only get in the way. I have had more than one flight student, older guys starting flying in their late 40's early 50's, tell me they wished they had it all to do over again, they would gone into flying as soon as they could of, but Suzy (girl friend) wanted the house, the babies, and when she wants babies who can resist the temptation, the family lifestyle, and they thought there would be time later, but once the commitments come and you elect to honor them, there is no later, until all the kids have left home and you are semi free again. I know this post will probably draw flack like flying across the Ho Chi Minh trail, because it so politically incorrect, and besides I am semi management in a bottom feeder industry, so what would I know . But you ask, so here is my input from the prospective of 35 years in this business.

 

[Lonestar]

yip pilot

When did this thread become "2 yr or 4 yr Part II" ? The original poster asked nothing about your opinion of a college degree. It is my understanding that anyone flying a C-141 for the AF or Res already HAS a college degree...problem solved. I guess you can probably take your argument elsewhere. I would give you my opinion of the value of a college education but I know it would fall on deaf ears.

 

[check six]

Jet jocks, engineers, and lawyers

KlingonLRDRVR, I like your view.
I was an electrical engineer making decent money in the telecom industry a few years ago. I could do the job in my sleep and got bored. Had been doing flying and getting all my ratings at night. Finally got the ATP, and my buddy hooked me up with an FO job flying 135 in Lears. I loved the challenge. Anyway, I got married, had a few kids and the wife couldn't take it anymore. She was working to float the boat.
I went back to engineering to catch my breadth. The pay is on par with LCC captains. I feel pretty fortunate. Flying Lears made me a better engineer. Nothing sharpens attention to detail like trying to hold altitude at FL410 with no autopilot.
I never really planned out my future, but dam maybe I'll be back in a Lear someday that I buy with my stock options. The market is coming back, right?

Check Six

 

[banned username 2]

Pilot YIP...

Having a college education will never hurt anyone....

I realize you do not have one, but why discourage others from obtaining one?

Everyone knows there are aviation jobs out there that in fact REQUIRE a 4 year college degree... Why start your career off by having those particular doors locked?

I have never heard of a desireable flying job where you couldn't get hired if you had a college degree...

Why limit your options... education is invaluable and no one can ever take that away...

Signed,

College Graduate (Honors even!) working in a flying job that requires a 4 year college degree....

 

[pilotyip]

no degree me?

BS Mich State U 1966, (math,physics) MA Central Mich U (organization development) 1982: You are jumping to conclusions for which you have no knowledge. I got my first degree to get into an organization that said you needed a 4 yr degree, the US Navy. I got my masters because it was paid for by Uncle Sam's GI Bill and I needed it for promotion in the military. A brain dead high school drop out could have made it through the masters' program. Masters was not near as hard as undergraduate work. I know many successful pilots by my definiton without degrees and I know many of my friends kids who have 4 yr degrees and manage a radio shack. It about the person and not some outside defined defintion of success. It is up to the individual to define career paths and success, not the 4 yr guru's on this board. What is your degree in?

 

[T1bubba]

Huh?

I'm with Lonestar, how did degrees enter into a thread about the direction of the industry???

Did someone delete a post?

 

[tredding@swa]

Aviation biz

If my son OR daughter were considering a career in civilian aviation, I would strongly discourage them.

I would hope they would attend college and get a BS or BA in ANYthing.

Case in point.... my wife, who is very intelligent and has 20+ years experience in sales, (who has outperformed ANYone who she has ever worked with) can't even apply for an entry level job in the PHX area without a 4 yr. degree. ($25K/yr!!)

Get the degree...... Tred

 

[llowwelll]

Como say what?

Thanks T1Bubba and Lonestar for raising the flag. I have no idea how the thread turned into a 4-yr degree issue based on my original post. My orginal post was simply about my theory of what would become of the industry in the future and what you all might think of it. I don't think I alluded in any way to the issue of whether or not it was advantageous to have a 4-yr degree. Obviously, based on the posts here, it's an issue that merits some discussion but not really in the context of this thread.

 

[abxaviator]

To get back to your original subject, I agree there are major (no pun intended) changes around the corner for the pax carriers. I too feel the majors will need to try to conform their domestic business model to more closely match those of the LCC's, but the cog in the gear is their int'l routes. One reason the LCC's are LCC's is because they don't have to support a worldwide route structure. I really don't see how it would be feasible for a major to attempt to become a niche int'l only carrier. My crystal ball doesn't seem to be working any better than anyone else's, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see just how screwed up things really do get.

On the other side of the airfield, perhaps us Fr8 Dawgs will actually finally get some respect as we are making a profit as we speak and are currently negotiating a new contract which even our CEO agrees will provide an improvement in wages and rules. Right about now I'm glad I stayed here versus heading to the "greener pastures" of UAL or AMR a few years ago.

 

[bobbysamd]

Quals and industry future

I cannot understand what Yip has against getting the degree. Especially with all the education he has. He interjected the degree issue into this discussion.

To answer his question, I have a B.S.B.A. in Accounting with a concentration in English. Not that helpful for aviation, perhaps, except that I could balance my logbook, understand available income tax deductions for pilots, prepare semi-literate cover letters, and not sound like Beavis and/or Butthead when speaking or writing. A big benefit for me was that I could check off that square on the app. Clearly, companies give weight to the degree.

As a practical matter, we're discussing competitive quals. Others will have the degree. There's no reason why you can't have it, too. You need it to help level the playing field.

I like llowwelll's assessment. The majors, as we have known them, will shrink. They will contract out more of their shorter routes to the regionals and their RJs because it will be cheap for them. This means there will be fewer opportunities for those $200K jobs at the majors. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of the name-brand majors redo themselves as LCCs. United is the first one to come to mind.

 

[duckman]

I'm on board with abxaviator...The major's cannot become "Niche" international only carriers....that just doesn't work.
In fact..was the last major airline to try that call Pan Am???

I see the majors continuing to fly long (sts) domestic routes between big hub cities with their wide bodies and then "farming out" the shorter and smaller passenger quantity routes to regionals that are partnered/owned by the major airline. (Which I believe is where the majors are going now)

BUT...and a big BUT; Realize the big 4 (American, United, Delta, Northwest) were making good profits in the mid to late 90s. That environment could return, and with it the business traveler paying those rich prices for a seat out of the cattle car with more than a peanut and cup of coke. It just doesn't appear that way right now...does it??

The LCCs will always be around, expecially the ones w/a good business model. The game always changes....golf anyone??

 

[Checks]

YIP,

You are 100% correct. I cant believe any pilot would care more about QOL and his family than his flying career. My personal goal is to have a Major Airline job, 3 divorces, family that doesnt recognize me, and 3 kids who hate me because I was never around. But hey, I fly a 747!!