TaxiJet

[leartwenty4]

Leartwenty4:

I don't have cost figures for a Lear 30 but a Lear 40 costs $8 mil and has a direct operating cost of $2.38/ nm for a 600 nm trip. If they are charging $4 per mile then they have only $1.62/mile left to pay insurance, maintenance software programs, misc services, Mid-life/hot section inspections, Engine overhaul, paint, interior refurbishment, upgrades, personnel costs, training costs and facilities costs. I seriously doubt any company can sustain the pricing you quoted. Perhaps unreasonable expectations are why so many charter operators have gone out of business.

By the way, my cost figures are averages. Some fares may be as high as $8/mile while others dip below my $6.10/ mile target figure.

Figures were obtained from Business & Commercial Aviation magazine, August 2005, page 99.

try 1-2 mil for a lear 35-36. Probably less if you have the cash when a deal comes along. Probably burns more gas than an eclipse, but it flys faster too.-leartwenty4

 

[Taxijet]

Ace-of-the-base:

I do not take offense. Thank you for your input. One reason I am posting on this web site is to test my concept in the fires of professional pilot's constructive criticism. I want to know if something is wrong with this plan.

It is not my intention to deceive anyone to promote my plan. I am promoting the plan because I truly believe that pilots can benefit by getting involved in this opportunity.

I used 120 hours per month or 1440 per year on the airframe for my calculations. This may seem a bit high by todays standards but maintenance down time will be minimal in next generation aircraft (says Eclipse). Also the air taxi concept is that passengers will que up so the aircraft is only on the ground long enough to pick up the next fare and go. Charter has traditionally been only for the elite who could afford to rent the aircraft for the whole trip. So the aircraft and pilots end up waiting long periods for their passengers.

Where are all these qued up passengers coming from? You may be asking. That is what I asked myself when I first started looking into this idea. I believe the answers lies in personal hand held computer devices, the internet, advancements in air traffic control and capabilities of next generation aircraft. I want to use www.Taxijet.com to provide an online que so the aircraft doesn't have to wait for the passenger and the passenger doesn't have to wait for the airplane but they both arrive at the same time ready to go.

To answer your question more specifically: My figures included the following assumptions
1) There are five partner pilots flying one airplane (two at a time)
2) The airplane flew 1440 hrs in the year
3) An eight hour day is defined as 3 flights of 1.41 hours duration with one hour on the ground per flight. (450nm per flight)

Multiply the aircraft time by the number of pilots flying (2) and you get the total number of flight hours to be divided among the pilots.
2 X 1440 = 2880.

Divide by the number of pilots (5) and you get 576 hrs per pilot per year.

Divide by flight duration (1.41hrs.) and you get 408.5 flights

Divide by the number of flights per 8 hour day(3) and you get 136 days of flying.

It may seem a bit aggressive to average three flights per eight hour day but pilots are very able when it comes to bidding for the best schedule they can get. Perhaps I should use an average of 1+30 on the ground per flight. What do you think?

There will be days when off duty pilots must assist the flying pilots with operational issues. Or you could have one or two non-pilot partners and let them do the boring stuff.


Leartwenty4:

You may plug the fuel consumption rates and maintenance costs of any aircraft, such as the Lear 30, into the air taxi analysis spread sheet (on the research page of www.Taxijet.com) to see what the operating costs would be. First download the spread sheet by clicking the link. Then select the variables page. Find the flight profile section and input the Lear performance figures in place of the Eclipse figures. Change the purchase price and the maintenance costs to those of a Lear 30 and you will have a pretty accurate estimate of expense and profit.

Adjust the average revenue per aircraft to bring the profit to the same as the Eclipse profit and you will see what you must charge to make that profit.

All changes must be made in the boxed squares.

I think you will be very surprised by what you find.

Roger Burton
www.Taxijet.com

 

[Ace-of-the-Base]

Roger,

Again, I've seen a ton of projections in my aviation life, and I've seen the reality that ensues. To average 1.41 hour flights, you need to balance all of the .5 .7 and .9 flights with some 3 and 4 hour legs. Unless you have defined routes, this is what you'll find. Second, you are giving no room in your averages for ANY downtime, breakage, weather, etc. What happens if you get fogged out and just can't pick up a 'fare'. It's going to happen quite a few times if you're flying that amount of legs. And what about the Holidays, summer vacation time, etc. Execs are not going to travel their normal routes. Third: What about scheduling conflicts. By the looks of your projections, you are targeting (and would need) businessmen to use these jets that consistently. What time of day do you think they'll want to fly? Every exec that commutes wants to leave between 7 and 9 in the AM and return at 5 or 6. If they're flying to business meetings, they leave at 8 or so, and return in the early afternoon. Who's going to fly between 9 and 2. No one. So 5 of your 8 hours are screwed.

Private jet passengers (even the new ones you're trying to breed) have constraints on their schedules that you or I can't change. They may be willing to budge an hour either way to get a cheaper ride, but they won't sit at home till 11am to go to work or a meeting. The whole point of a limo or a taxi is that it goes where YOU need to go, WHEN you need to go.

Ace

 

[JJGMADDOG]

Roger,


How is a .64 mach (vmo I might add) airplane flying in the mid 30's going to fit into the national airpace system; especially in a already congested Northeast-Florida route system?

 

[Dangerkitty]

Roger,

Again, I've seen a ton of projections in my aviation life, and I've seen the reality that ensues. To average 1.41 hour flights, you need to balance all of the .5 .7 and .9 flights with some 3 and 4 hour legs. Unless you have defined routes, this is what you'll find. Second, you are giving no room in your averages for ANY downtime, breakage, weather, etc. What happens if you get fogged out and just can't pick up a 'fare'. It's going to happen quite a few times if you're flying that amount of legs. And what about the Holidays, summer vacation time, etc. Execs are not going to travel their normal routes. Third: What about scheduling conflicts. By the looks of your projections, you are targeting (and would need) businessmen to use these jets that consistently. What time of day do you think they'll want to fly? Every exec that commutes wants to leave between 7 and 9 in the AM and return at 5 or 6. If they're flying to business meetings, they leave at 8 or so, and return in the early afternoon. Who's going to fly between 9 and 2. No one. So 5 of your 8 hours are screwed.

Private jet passengers (even the new ones you're trying to breed) have constraints on their schedules that you or I can't change. They may be willing to budge an hour either way to get a cheaper ride, but they won't sit at home till 11am to go to work or a meeting. The whole point of a limo or a taxi is that it goes where YOU need to go, WHEN you need to go.

Ace

Mr. Burton,

Ace basically summarized many of my concerns and put it on paper (or the message board) much better than I could.

Your numbers are very very very optimistic at best and leave in no fudge factor for anything. Put in the Part 135 Constraints and I just dont see how some of your numbers are going to work. Again I wish you the best but I have to say you have an uphill battle. If you can pull this off you have my utmost respect.

DK

 

[Taxijet]

“To average 1.41 hour flights, you need to balance all of the .5 .7 and .9 flights with some 3 and 4 hour legs.”

Correct – 1.41 hrs is an average.

“Second, you are giving no room in your averages for ANY downtime, breakage, weather, etc.”

There are 468,000 hours in each year. My figures assume that 1,440 of them are flight hours. The rest are down time. Some of that time could be due to breakage.

My figures (which are based on averages) assume a 70% full fare utilization rate, 10% “at cost” (cover expenses only) and 20% of the flight time is non-revenue producing. The 20% includes weather problems such as what you discussed. I think these numbers will be attainable by a professional crew that wisely uses all the assets available to them. What do you think the percentages should be? I'm glad this came up because I really would like to know what professional pilots think would be a reasonable percentage mix given all the variables.

“And what about the Holidays, summer vacation time, etc. Execs are not going to travel their normal routes… Who's going to fly between 9 and 2. No one.”

Go where the passengers are. Bidding online for flights you will not be limited to your main clients to the extent you are today. Do people stop driving between 9 and 2? I don’t. I live in Southern California and I usually try to time my commutes so I don’t get caught in traffic. Air Taxis will be flying a lower echelon executive than you are accustomed to. The target customer makes between $80 and $300 per hour. They pinch pennies a bit more and will be willing to have their meetings a few hours later if it will save them 20% on their travel expense. So bid 20% less than full fare between 9 and 2. If that doesn’t work, bid 30% less. If that doesn’t work try a blowout sale of 40% off. As long as your bottom line benefits, the discount is worth offering. Once the overall bottom line is diminished you have found the least amount you can charge for the flight. Remember that since you own the aircraft your salary is included in the bottom line for you personally, unlike in a larger corporation. You may ask yourself would I fly this flight for no pay? Maybe you would if your girlfriend lives in the destination city. Maybe not if that’s where your ex lives. Each flight will have a unique set of variables.

40% off the average full fare of $6.10/nm would be $3.66/nm. So a trip from ATL to DFW would cost the customer $2,324 one-way or $774 each for a group of three passengers. The Eclipse has four seats in back. Would this appeal to the traveling public enough to make him/her change the meeting time? I think so. And you would still make a little bit of money because the cost of the trip would be $2,032(including salary for two pilots).

Regards,

Roger Burton
www.Taxijet.com

 

[Taxijet]

Roger,


How is a .64 mach (vmo I might add) airplane flying in the mid 30's going to fit into the national airpace system; especially in a already congested Northeast-Florida route system?

The world is getting smaller. One day routes to the moon will be crowded too. Progress brings challenges of all sorts. VLJ's are coming and they deserve airspace too so let's work together for a smooth transition. The government will be spending a lot of money in the coming years to solve this and many other problems associated with next generation air travel. Let's hope they spend the money wisely.

Perhaps the answer on an individual basis would be to base your air taxi operation away from congested routes. Montana may be a good place for an air taxi service. Perhaps you could operate out of Montana in the summer and Arizona in the winter. Taxijet will provide a research function to help potential operators determine, among other things, where air taxi operations are viable. Your question is one of a number of factors that must be considered in the decision making process.

Thanks for the input.

Roger Burton
www.Taxijet.com

 

[JJGMADDOG]

Frankly I would not want to be geographically limited when looking into an aircraft purchase, especially for the intention of providing a service for revenue. Why limit yourself before your'e even established?

 

[Ace-of-the-Base]

Air Taxis will be flying a lower echelon executive than you are accustomed to. The target customer makes between $80 and $300 per hour. They pinch pennies a bit more and will be willing to have their meetings a few hours later if it will save them 20% on their travel expense. So bid 20% less than full fare between 9 and 2. If that doesn’t work, bid 30% less. If that doesn’t work try a blowout sale of 40% off. As long as your bottom line benefits, the discount is worth offering. Once the overall bottom line is diminished you have found the least amount you can charge for the flight. Remember that since you own the aircraft your salary is included in the bottom line for you personally, unlike in a larger corporation. You may ask yourself would I fly this flight for no pay? Maybe you would if your girlfriend lives in the destination city. Maybe not if that’s where your ex lives. Each flight will have a unique set of variables.

Roger, I don't want to keep busting your b@lls, but this is all marketing stuff.

If you really want to market, instead of just kicking around a concept, then you'll have to answer this:

What is the possible downside. In other words, since you are not guaranteeing any level of flight hours (projections are cheap), what would it cost me and my 3 other friends if we get no flights.

Now, I don't want to mislead you. I have a job that already pays what you're saying the possible income would be in your scenario. My job has no risk. I know you're trying to paint a rosy picture, but most of us who have had to justify a corporate jet, know a bit about depreciation (book and actual), recapture, active and passive loss, etc. Your numbers might look good in a brochure, but they don't capture my interest. You are talking about taking a big financial risk to go into a market that does not yet exist, with a possible upside that is not earth-shattering.

Ace

 

[Taxijet]

Downside: If you don't fly the airplane at all, you would have a loss of about $124,000 initial investment (per partner) and $104,000 per partner per year, with five partners.

If you make over $140,000 per year and are happy with your secure job I would not expect you to get involved with what I have suggested.

A 45 year old furloughed airline pilot might be interested in checking it out.

My figures account for 7 years to depreciate the aircraft and assumes no residual value at the end of that time.

What have I said specifically that leads you to suggest that I'm trying to paint a rosy picture? Have I made any unrealistic assumptions or said anything untrue? If so I'd like to know what it was so I can correct the mistake.


Roger Burton

www.Taxijet.com