This shouldn't be a very difficult question, really. What are YOUR career goals? If your goal is to fly for the airlines, after (while?) serving the country as a military aviator, then you should position yourself to accomplish that goal. If your goal is to have a career as a military aviator and then "probably" move on to the airlines, then do what is necessary to accomplish THAT goal.
Put the monetary issue aside for the moment. Assuming you are planning on maintaining at least some connection with the military through the Guard or Reserve, you will make enough money to survive somewhat comfortably. If you are able to attain a military retirement, that will supplement your first-year airline pay and you'll survive. If not, take one of the shorter-term bonuses and BANK it so that you can use that to supplement the airline pay.
The only issue is WHEN you want to move to the airlines. If you want to be a career military guy, just go for it! Take the bonus to 20 years, (again, BANK it, don't use it as lifestyle-enhancement; if you can't have a nice lifestyle as a military officer, seek help)

don't look back, and in your last couple of years start accumulating your ratings, etc for the airline job hunt. If you want to move to the airlines now, get yourself set up in the Guard/Reserve so you have OPTIONS. Unless you are committed to a military career, my advice is not to stay in the active force. They simply exercise too much control over your life, in too-large "chunks" if you want to have the flexibility to make a sudden career decision.
Yes, timing is everything, and it would suck to miss some golden opportunity with the airlines because you're still deployed with the Guard, but unemployment REALLY sucks. When that furlough letter comes in the mail, it's gonna feel pretty good knowing you're still scheduled to fly the PM trainer at the Guard base the next evening.
The big thing is to make your decision and then be "happy" with it. There are MANY worse jobs in aviation than being a Guard Bum waiting for his "big break" with the airlines, and making $110,000/yr as a "bonus boy" your last 5 years in the active force isn't all bad either. Look at your own situation NOW, and see how to improve it "incrementally" over the next 5 years or so, rather than focusing on what somebody else who happened to be at the right place at the right time has now.